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Prediction: GB 20, WAS 24 (Line: WAS by 1)

UPDATE: Matt Jones is questionable and only had limited work this week. I am lowering his projections and he is no lock to play.

The 10-6 Packers have a better record than the 9-7 Redskins but are only 4-6 over the last 10 games and the Vikings were the only team with a winning record that they beat other that time. And they just lost to them last week in Green Bay. The Redskins have won five of their last six. What is hard to accept is that this is just not the same Packers team even with Aaron Rodgers at the helm.

These Packers don’t rank above average in any fantasy category and apparently Jordy Nelson was really the linchpin for the offense. They had the occasional good showing but the sloppy play killed their chances for a strong finish and instead the sneak into the playoffs holding on to what they accomplished earlier in the year. One great fact that explains it all – the Packers lost to all three divisional opponents when they visited Green Bay.

QUARTERBACK : Aaron Rodgers had a couple of monster games but since Week 10 he’s been average at best. The last eight games contain only 12 passing touchdowns and never more than two in any game. Since Week 11, he has never thrown for 300 yards. And he only gets worse by ending with three games of just a single touchdown pass and three interceptions and three lost fumbles in that time. Watching Rodgers always spawns the optimism that he’s just about to pull off a big game. But he never does. And this was the league MVP last year.

RUNNING BACK : Here is where losing last week is going to hurt. The Packers have never rushed well on the road except for the one win in Minnesota that is looking more and more like a freak game. Eddie Lacy averaged 11 carries for 39 yards over the last away venues and that was propped up by the 100 yards he ran in Minnesota (he gained only 34 yards on 13 runs last week versus the Vikings). It would have been only nine runs for 27 yards on average otherwise. James Starks is the secondary back but doesn’t offer the consistency or production to merit any fantasy consideration.

WIDE RECEIVER : Over the course of the season, this unit just gets worse. Davante Adams has just one touchdown this year and after a four week stretch when he received 46 passes, he’s back to being a three or four catch player who is stuck around 40 yards per game. James Jones started out hot but he scored just once in the last six weeks and remained below 50 yards in four of those. Randall Cobb hasn’t scored at all over the last six weeks and and on the road has not gained more than 40 yards. This unit has historically been one of the best. The only reason it ranks as average now is because of the first half of the year.

TIGHT END : Richard Rodgers scored last week and even had seven catches for 59 yards against the Vikings despite only managing three receptions for seven yards in their first meeting. Though he had the one monster game in Week 13 when he caught the Hail Mary pass to beat the Lions, Rodgers only had a single catch for less than eight yards in the next week weeks. He’s much more consistent at turning in sub-20 yard efforts.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Redskins at home have not allowed more than two passing scores since Week 4 and held almost all opponents below 275 passing yards. The rushing defense has been bad on the road but at home held all but two backs to less than 85 yards and the Packers are not rushing well on the road anyway. This looks like yet another spot where Rodgers should produce good stats but not more than a moderate game and in the end not quite enough to win.

Lacy is a moderate start at best, facing a defense that plays much better in Washington against the run. The Skins at home have only allowed one score to a tight end so Rodgers is out this week.

Wide receivers are the ones that will either make the winning difference or not since this is the weakest area for the Skins. The problem is matching up which Packers wideout has the best chance to have a decent game. Odell Beckham, Sammy Watkins and Mike Evans all had nice games there but James Jones and Randall Cobb total one score over the last six games. Any of these wideouts are going to be a risk though at least one should have a good game and possibly two.

The Redskins were just another bad NFC East team and now they won their last four games and are the only home team favored this weekend.The offense suddenly came to life for the last month of the season and four or those games were on the road. But none had a winning record either. The defense allowed 21+ points in each win but the offense was able to generate even more.

QUARTERBACK : Aside from home games against the Saints and Buccaneers, Kirk Cousins threw for exactly one score in each of the first thirteen games. But he finished the season with 12 touchdowns over the final three weeks and ended with five 300+ yard games since mid-season. That largely had to do with getting DeSean Jackson back and then relying heavily on Jordan Reed.

RUNNING BACK : This has been one of the worst backfield situations to figure out all year. Alfred Morris scored just once all year though he gets 12 to 18 carries nearly every week. He ran for 100 yards in Dallas last week but it was his first big yardage game since the season opener. Matt Jones missed the last two games with a hip injury but he’s been of minimal production in almost every game this year. Chris Thompson remains the third down back but the Skins rarely throw him more than a couple of passes in any recent game. Lastly Pierre Thomas is there just to ensure that no one has a big fantasy week. There really is no consistency here other than they use at least three backs each week with marginal results in total.

WIDE RECEIVER : This unit has improved this year and is much better the second half of the season than it was in the first. DeSean Jackson returned in Week 9 and over the last six games, he scored four touchdowns and topped 80 yards three times. Jamison Crowder usually does little but comes off his first big game – 109 yards and a score in Dallas. Pierre Garcon scored in each of the last three weeks and has been on a streak of 50 yard games. Even Rashad Ross scored last week though he only has eight catches on the season. For whatever reason, the passing game has really blossomed in Washington and is including all the receivers.

TIGHT END : Jordan Reed was never a bad tight end, he just could not stay healthy for his first two seasons. He’s been rock solid all year and ended with a flurry over the fantasy playoff weeks of 14 to 16. He caught five touchdowns and averaged 111 yards over those three weeks. Reed is now an elite tight end who offers good consistency.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: Kirk Cousins is on a hot streak but that was against poor defenses and the Packers still have a decent secondary that has only allowed more then two scores once all year. Cousins should be good for two scores here but anything more is truly a sign of how improved the offense is and that their recent successes were not heavily influenced by a soft matchup. The Packers are more accommodating against the run but that’s a big question mark for this team. Cousins ran in a score in three of the last six games and it could happen here – he’s the leader for rushing scores.

The Packers have faced nearly no receiving tight ends and yet allowed four scores to the position in road games so expect a nice effort here by Reed.

The secondary is better than most and only allowed seven touchdowns over the eight road games. DeSean Jackson scored in his last three home games and is the favorite here to wind up with a touchdowns. Garcon also has a decent shot if there are three passing scores instead of two.

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