Game Predictions & Player Projections - KC vs. HOU

Game Predictions & Player Projections - KC vs. HOU


Game Predictions & Player Projections - KC vs. HOU


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Prediction: KC 24, HOU 16 (Line: KC by 3)

UPDATE: Cecil Shorts has gone through full practices and will play. Nate Washington has only managed limited practices but is listed as probable and is expected to play.

The 11-5 Chiefs are on a ten game winning streak with a defense that has held their last 12 opponents to 22 points or less. The 9-7 Texans won their last three games and are 5-3 at home. The Texans defense has been great so long as it faces a weak team. The Chiefs defense has consistently excelled each week. This is a replay of Week 1 when the Chiefs won 27-20 in Houston.

Kansas City Chiefs

1 @HOU 27-20 10 @DEN 29-13
2 DEN 24-31 11 @SD 33-3
3 @GB 28-38 12 BUF 30-22
4 @CIN 21-36 13 @OAK 34-20
5 CHI 17-18 14 SD 10-3
6 @MIN 10-16 15 @BAL 34-14
7 PIT 23-13 16 CLE 17-13
8 DET 45-10 17 OAK 23-17
9 BYE ——  
News | Statistics | Roster
Chiefs Rush Catch Pass
QB Alex Smith 30 230,1
RB Charcandrick West 50 1-10
RB Spencer Ware 20,1
TE Travis Kelce 6-50,1
WR Jeremy Maclin 7-70
WR Albert Wilson 3-30
PK Cairo Santos 1 FG 3 XP

The Chiefs roll into the playoff with the fourth best record in the AFC and with the stingiest defense other than the Bengals. What has been happening in recent weeks is that the offense doesn’t do that much in home games knowing that they can win. But in away venues, the Chiefs have scored at least 29 points in each of the last four trips away from Kansas City.

QUARTERBACK : Alex Smith had his best game of the year in Week 1 when he threw for 243 yards and three touchdowns with no turnovers in Houston. Smith is good for a score or two every week and hasn’t been forced to throw for more than 25 passes since Week 12. Smith can rise to the need but it has not been there much for the last couple of months.

RUNNING BACK : Back in the season opener, Jamaal Charles only rushed for 57 yards on 16 carries but added five receptions for 46 yards and one score. Charcandrick West settled down into the guy between the 20’w but while he offers moderate rushing yardage, he scored just once in the last six weeks. Spencer Ware is the primary scorer now with six rushing touchdowns though rarely much yardage. The Chiefs have not thrown much to the backs since Charles left.

WIDE RECEIVER : Jeremy Maclin only caught five passes for 52 yards in the season opener but he went on to become a very big weapon for the Chiefs. He’s scored eight times this season and six times over the last six games. His yardage rarely goes that high but he’s been a trusted outlet whenever Smith does need to throw. Maclin has a sore hip that made him miss early practices but is expected to play. No other wideout matters much on this team.

TIGHT END : Travis Kelce opened the season with his best game of the year – six catches for 106 yards and two scores in Houston. He;s scored three more times this year but all came in home games. He offers just moderate yardage every week.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Texans defense ranks well in all categories but they tend to be great against a bad team and then average when they face a good one. There should be no chance of a big passing game here since the Chiefs rarely do that and the Texans at home have been formidable. But their recent win streak was just three games against their weak divisional rivals. They lost to the Bills an Pats prior to that. There is no difference now than it was in the season opener – the only fantasy plays are Kelce hoping for a score along with the moderate yardage and Maclin who has become a viable fantasy option but one who faces a better than most secondary and wasn’t that successful the first time.

I like a defensive score in this game.

Gaining Fantasy Points KC 25 22 26 10 7 4
Preventing Fantasy Points HOU  6 7 6 10 3 12

Houston Texans

1 KC 20-27 10 @CIN 10-6
2 @CAR 17-24 11 NYJ 24-17
3 TB 19-9 12 NO 24-6
4 @ATL 21-48 13 @BUF 21-30
5 IND 20-27 14 NE 6-27
6 @JAC 31-20 15 @IND 16-10
7 @MIA 26-44 16 @TEN 34-6
8 TEN 20-6 17 JAC 30-6
9 BYE ——  
News | Statistics | Roster
Texans Rush Catch Pass
QB Brian Hoyer- 270,1
RB Alfred Blue 50
RB Chris Polk 20 2-20
WR DeAndre Hopkins 10-120,1
WR Nate Washington 4-60
WR Jaelen Strong 3-40
WR Cecil Shorts 3-30
PK Nick Novak 3 FG 1 XP

The Texans wind down the regular season by crushing their divisional opponents with high scores and a defense that held them all to ten points or fewer. This will be a big challenge this week facing a team that has only been as good as it needed to be to win their last ten games. The Texans also lost their left tackle and that’s bad timing with the Chiefs coming and Brian Hoyer needing protection. The 9-7 record is a success in itself for the Texans whose offense is largely predicated on finding just one receiver – Deandre Hopkins.

QUARTERBACK : Brian Hoyer passed for 236 yards and one score in the season opener against these Chiefs. He also was intercepted once and lost a fumble while getting sacked four times. Hoyer started the year with a string of multiple touchdown games but has cooled since and missed games this year after sustaining two concussions this season. He looks to win a playoff game with injuries to the offensive line and receivers that will present problems.

RUNNING BACK : Alfred Blue was the primary back in the season opener but only ran for 42 yards on nine carries. He’s ran in only two scores this season but has been rushing for higher yardage lately thanks to facing the AFC South three times. He’s been held to under 60 yards in all games against decent defenses. Chris Polk helps out but never gets more than a few touches unless it is a big win by the Texans and he gets to play mop up. Jonathan Grimes also figures in with little significance but suddenly scored on a run and a catch last week for this first scores of the year. Blue is the only back worthy of projections and even then only marginally so.

WIDE RECEIVER : DeAndre Hopkins showed the world that he would be better than his quarterback situation when he opened the year with nine catches for 98 yards and two scores on these Chiefs. He’s been a strong play every week and ended the regular season with 11 touchdowns and six games over 100 yards. The Chiefs already know who to cover in this offense. Nate Washington hurt his hip in Week 17 and may not play this week despite ending with six catches for 105 yards in the previous meeting. Cecil Shorts only produced 57 yards on four catches in the opener and has missed the last three games with a hamstring strain that is still week-to-week.

I’ll hold Washington and Shorts out for now and add them on Friday if warranted. Their absence would really cripple the passing attack.

TIGHT END : No fantasy value.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Chiefs already held Hoyer to 236 yards and one score which is about in line with that has happened in most weeks with the Chiefs. Add in the chance it will be Hopkins and a gaggle of mediocre receivers and Hoyer will be hard-pressed to get that much. Hopkins is always a start and may end up with an obscene number of targets it the rushing offense is stalled. There is a chance of a rushing score but Blue and the boys are not going to warrant a fantasy start with their risk of turning in yet another mediocre game split up three ways.

The Chiefs have largely been doing little more than holding their opponents at bay. But in the playoffs, their effort should be focused and even tougher than that season opener.

Gaining Fantasy Points HOU 18 17 7 31 27 12
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 25 22 26 10 7 4

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