Better Than Average (BTA) was developed to show which players were truly better than their peers when the advantage of the schedule was removed. This is a true 1:1 measurement because it only considers how well players did against all others who faced a particular defense. It counts up three occurrences:
“Top 8” – When a RB produced one of the top 8 game performances for fantasy points allowed by a defense.
“Top 4” – When a RB scored in the top 4 game performances for fantasy points allowed by a defense.
“#1” – Who had the best fantasy game against a defense over the past year. There could only by 32 such events since each defense can only allow one “best game”.
BTA – Simply adding up the 1, 4 and 8 values for a numerical expression of how effective a running back truly was last year against all other players in his position. The strength of schedule doesn’t matter. Only what a player produced against all other players in that position against that defense. It is a measurement of player ability against the others in his position.
Most #1 Games | |
---|---|
David Johnson | 4 |
Ezekiel Elliott | 4 |
Le’Veon Bell | 4 |
Devonta Freeman | 3 |
LeSean McCoy | 2 |
Melvin Gordon | 2 |
Theo Riddick | 2 |
The top three players that had four instances of scoring the most that a certain defense allowed will no doubt be the first three drafted this summer.
Running backs are all about offering consistent stats each week and we saw a newer batch of top backs with Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles out for the year. The decline in top backs was pretty dramatic – after the top six or seven there were very few real difference makers and even those teams that employed a true primary back could not produce that many #1 performances against a defense. This all says that running backs are going to be hot in the first round of fantasy drafts and then likely be lesser valued for many rounds.
Running Backs | BTA | #1 | Top 4 | Top 8 |
---|---|---|---|---|
David Johnson | 28 | 4 | 9 | 15 |
Ezekiel Elliott | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 |
Le’Veon Bell | 22 | 4 | 8 | 10 |
LeSean McCoy | 20 | 2 | 7 | 11 |
Devonta Freeman | 18 | 3 | 7 | 8 |
DeMarco Murray | 18 | 1 | 6 | 11 |
Melvin Gordon | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
Mark Ingram | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
Isaiah Crowell | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
Carlos Hyde | 11 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
LeGarrette Blount | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
Jordan Howard | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
Theo Riddick | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
Lamar Miller | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
Frank Gore | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
Bilal Powell | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
Tevin Coleman | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
Ty Montgomery | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
Jay Ajayi | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
Matt Forte | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
Latavius Murray | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
Terrance West | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
Spencer Ware | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
Todd Gurley | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
Jerick McKinnon | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
Ryan Mathews | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
DeAngelo Williams | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
Jonathan Stewart | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
Jeremy Hill | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
Robert Kelley | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
C.J. Anderson | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Devontae Booker | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
Tim Hightower | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
Darren Sproles | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
Matt Jones | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 |