Sleepers and Value Plays: Quarterbacks

By: David Dorey | August 7, 2017 Follow @DMDorey

A sleeper is a player taken as a backup who ends up worthy of being a starter or at least far outplays the draft slot where you selected him. Average Draft Positions (ADP) are taken from MyFantasyLeague.com using only real drafts conducted after August 1.

The Average Draft order shows a general picture of how your draft will happen and where values/sleepers and bad values/busts likely exist. Any green check means the player is a good value that could be taken earlier. A red “X” signifies an overvalued player that is a bad value or just too high of a risk for that spot.

Other positions: Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End

Average Draft order – Value plays

ADP	Player	Team	Analysis
1	Rodgers, Aaron	GBP	No lower risk or higher ceiling.
2	Brady, Tom	NEP	This seems to pay too much homage to the Super Bowl. Better situation than 2016 but they won’t all be ATL.
3	Brees, Drew	NOS	Has always been worth this much.
4	Luck, Andrew	IND	When healthy – absolutely. Cannot be sure he is healthy yet. Why risk with other options?
5	Wilson, Russell	SEA	Healthy again means more running but O-line still bad. Mature offense. Has been Top 10 lock.
6	Ryan, Matt	ATL	Great spot if not higher. Was #3 last year.
7	Winston, Jameis	TBB	Love the upside here. Better offense, easy schedule. At worst should be rock solid QB1 but could end up Top 5.
8	Mariota, Marcus	TEN	TEN runs too well to get Mariota enough volume to reach this. Still has not reached 3,500 pass yards.
9	Cousins, Kirk	WAS	WAS won’t invest but he was #5 and #9 last two years. Nice buy here. Drops with new WRs but could be just as good.
10	Carr, Derek	OAK	His development should net this but another bad schedule this year. And just two WRs matter so far.
11	Newton, Cam	CAR	Health is a concern but weapons and schedule are not. Mature offense. Stage set for rebound … if healthy.
12	Roethlisberger, Ben	PIT	Final QB1 great pick but has injury issues so get another soon. Martavis Bryant’s return makes this feel better.

Sleepers and over-valued players

ADP	Player	Team	Analysis
13	Prescott, Dak	DAL	He was actually #9 as a rookie and should be one year better. Nice back-up to be sure. DAL will run first and run well. But Prescott should pass at least this good with a bit of running as well.
14	Stafford, Matthew	DET	Worse schedule but always a solid back-up that can start in good spots. Never rushes but consistent with pass yards.
15	Rivers, Philip	LAC	Sure, Bolts lose receivers almost weekly but Rivers was Top 10 for last 4 years. Everyone healthy for now… wait.. where’s Mike Williams? Moving is a concern but Rivers has been so consistently good no matter.
16	Dalton, Andy	CIN	Picking Dalton as a back-up accepts moderate production in exchange for track record. Won’t kill you, won’t make a difference either.
17	Taylor, Tyrod	BUF	Rebuilding year and Taylor better show up this year or someone else will in 2017. Better rusher than passer which helps in fantasy but less so in “job keeping”.
18	Manning, Eli	NYG	Questionable rush offense (Part XII) but adding Brandon Marshall to Odell Beckham won’t hurt. Sterling Shepard’s ankle supposed to be okay so that’s 3 very nice WR. I’d take him several spots earlier and should offer some reliable starts.
19	Wentz, Carson	PHI	Tough schedule may hurt but this deep Wentz offers major upside as talented second-year player with improved receivers. This cheap says he only has to fill a bye week but could surprise.
20	Palmer, Carson	ARI	There is no problem taking him this late but he and his receivers are aging. Injury is a concern. Slowed down last year.
21	Bortles, Blake	JAC	Interceptions? Sure. But schedule is light like 2015 when he was #3 and even last year still was #9. JAC wants to start running every play which is a concern. In his three years, has never been worse than this spot. But he has not done well in preseason games so far and there is a question if he won’t be replaced by Chad Henne – worth avoiding until more clarity at the least.
22	Tannehill, Ryan	MIA	Untouchable with his partially torn ACL.
23	Flacco, Joe	BAL	Another solid back-up type but disc problem in back very concerning. Why risk anything on a mediocre back-up?
24	Bradford, Sam	MIN	He’s likely to pass even better this year but he never runs and MIN likes those low scoring games.