Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports
Are you a slave to ADP? What, you thought this was going to be some sort of gutter talk? No, it’s about showing that it’s ok to reach a round for players. The absolute worst feeling in a draft is when you have a target, want to draft him, check ADP, and then decide to pass on him because you’ll get him next round – but no, he ends up getting selected before your next pick. That’s what happens when you are a slave to ADP. ADP is a tool that can be helpful. With it, you know approximately when a player is being selected in drafts and that can help you to determine if you feel he’s a value or not. The thing to keep in mind is that ADP isn’t concrete. Players go earlier and later than their ADP ranking. I combine tiers with ADP to help me decide if I think I can wait on a player. That’s where I feel you get the best value with ADP. If you truly want to target one player then you are playing with fire if you rely solely on it. If you want a guy, and you truly believe he will be a top option at his position then don’t be afraid to jump a round or two early to get him.
Let’s say that you are projecting Ameer Abdullah to be a top-3 RB. Does that mean you take him in the first round? No, it doesn’t. It does mean that drafting him in round 4 when his ADP is in the middle of round 6 is fine. Yes, people will say you reached … let them. At least you will have gotten your guy! A few years ago, I was drafting towards the end of the first round and I had Matt Forte ranked as one of the top 3 to 5 players at RB but his ADP had him going late in round 2. Picking late in round 1 meant that I had an early round 2 pick. What did I do? Instead of drafting Forte in round 1 I drafted another RB knowing I’d get Forte with my next pick. Guess what, Forte didn’t make it to my next pick because he was taken in round 1. I got cute trying to eek out as much value as I could and in the end, I lost out on my guy.
Yes, the following charts are a cherry picker’s paradise. They show what round you could have reached for the player in and still returned great value on them. Again I have to emphasize, if you have a bunch of players in the same tier and don’t need to reach, then don’t. However, if you have a guy you love, don’t get caught being cute and missing out on him. I’m sure many of you will have stories about how you missed out on some of these players because you were a slave to ADP.
2014
| Round | Player | ADP Average Pick |
End of Season Overall Ranking |
End of Season Positional Ranking |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antonio Brown | 23.86 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | T.Y. Hilton | 58.79 | 32 | 10 |
| 3 | Jeremy Maclin | 70.67 | 25 | 8 |
| 4 | Emmanuel Sanders | 70.86 | 20 | 6 |
| 5 | Joique Bell | 71.85 | 59 | 11 |
| 6 | Golden Tate | 90.43 | 36 | 12 |
| 7 | Lamar Miller | 101.32 | 52 | 9 |
| 8 | Jeremy Hill | 127.76 | 55 | 10 |
| 9 | Mark Ingram | 131.02 | 74 | 17 |
| 10 | Delanie Walker | 160.90 | 88 | 7 |
| 11 | Chris Ivory | 163.85 | 113 | 24 |
| 12 | Odell Beckham Jr. | 165.15 | 31 | 9 |
2015
| Round | Player | ADP Average Pick |
End of Season Overall Ranking |
End of Season Positional Ranking |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lamar Miller | 33.42 | 44 | 5 |
| 2 | Jarvis Landry | 58.40 | 26 | 8 |
| 3 | Brandon Marshall | 62.86 | 8 | 3 |
| 4 | Chris Ivory | 85.69 | 64 | 10 |
| 5 | Larry Fitzgerald | 92.17 | 23 | 7 |
| 6 | Eric Decker | 109.72 | 38 | 13 |
| 7 | Duke Johnson | 120.14 | 106 | 24 |
| 8 | David Johnson | 140.99 | 55 | 8 |
| 9 | Darren Sproles | 141.98 | 111 | 25 |
| 10 | Michael Crabtree | 153.61 | 51 | 17 |
| 11 | Doug Baldwin | 164.41 | 29 | 10 |
| 12 | Richard Rodgers | 173.37 | 119 | 11 |
2016
| Round | Player | ADP Average Pick |
End of Season Overall Ranking |
End of Season Positional Ranking |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LeSean McCoy | 31.39 | 12 | 4 |
| 2 | Doug Baldwin | 49.79 | 22 | 6 |
| 3 | DeMarco Murray | 51.41 | 14 | 5 |
| 4 | Melvin Gordon | 68.63 | 32 | 7 |
| 5 | Michael Crabtree | 89.82 | 38 | 10 |
| 6 | Frank Gore | 92.38 | 53 | 11 |
| 7 | Jay Ajayi | 105.94 | 55 | 13 |
| 8 | Stefon Diggs | 106.01 | 70 | 26 |
| 9 | Tevin Coleman | 122.02 | 92 | 22 |
| 10 | Jason Witten | 125.88 | 113 | 9 |
| 11 | Davante Adams | 138.86 | 41 | 12 |
| 12 | Cole Beasley | 146.25 | 82 | 32 |
Remember, this exercise is to illustrate that there isn’t anything wrong with reaching a round, or two, for a player that you really love. So what if people start to whisper behind your back. Sometimes you just have to go and get your guy!
Just for fun, I thought I’d put together a round-by-round list as my 2017 Reach Team!
| Round | Player | ADP Average Pick* |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amari Cooper | 16.77 |
| 2 | Keenan Allen | 40.28 |
| 3 | Stefon Diggs | 59.80 |
| 4 | Ameer Abdullah | 66.92 |
| 5 | Danny Woodhead | 86.98 |
| 6 | Pierre Garcon | 97.92 |
| 7 | Tyrell Williams | 105.43 |
| 8 | Duke Johnson | 118.99 |
| 9 | Marvin Jones | 133.30 |
| 10 | Austin Hooper | 138.36 |
| 11 | Jamal Williams | 151.18 |
| 12 | Marlon Mack | 164.34 |
* As of August 11.
So there it is my 2017 Reach Team. No, there are no QBs worth reaching for! If you are tempted in your draft to reach a round for your QB I suggest you go back and read Dissecting QB Value in Fantasy Football.
Remember, ADP has its place, just don’t be a slave to it is all. What are you waiting for? If you don’t go and get that reach player someone else is going to beat you to it. Happy drafting!
