Fantasy schedule impact: Running Backs

Fantasy schedule impact: Running Backs

NFL and Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule

Fantasy schedule impact: Running Backs


There is no position as sensitive to the schedule as running back. None. It is the most predictive of all positions and offers a look at the future season.

We do a couple of measurements regarding the schedule here at The Huddle. Neither will guarantee a player’s success or failure but they offer pieces of information that should always be considered when evaluating a player. Bottom line – you consider the schedule every week of the season when determining your starters.

The two measurements – schedule strength and the change in strength are dealt in more detail in the following reports.

Fantasy Strength of Schedule Series

Strength of Schedule Swings

Applying the schedule analysis to actual running backs yield the following best and worst outlooks.

(Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports)

Best change in Strength of Schedule

The improvement in rank for schedules between 2016 and 2017.  The lower the rank, the easier the schedule.

MIN – Dalvin Cook, Latavius Murray (32 – 6)
GB – Ty Montgomery, Jamaal Williams (29 – 11)
DEN – C.J. Anderson, Jamaal Charles (16 – 1)
JAC – Leonard Fournette (25 – 3)
CIN – Joe Mixon, Giovani Bernard, Jeremy Hill (25-10)
CLE – Isaiah Crowell, Duke Johnson (28 – 16)

Worst  change in  Strength of Schedule

The decline in rank for schedules between 2016 and 2017.  The higher the rank, the tougher the schedule.

KC – Spencer Ware, Kareem Hunt (4 – 23)
TB – Doug Martin, Jacquizz Rodgers (8 – 27)
ARI – David Johnson (1 – 17)
ATL – Devonta Freeman (13 – 30)
SF – Carlos Hyde (18 – 31)
HOU – Lamar Miller (21 – 32)

Best overall schedules

Considers the number of easiest (Good) and toughest (bad) matchups and the total season point difference from an average scoring schedule.

DEN – C.J. Anderson (8 good/1 bad, +20.7 pts)
JAC – Leonard Fournette (8 good, 3 bad, +13.0 pts)
MIN – Dalvin Cook (8 good, 3 bad, +16.2 pts)
DAL – Ezekiel Elliott (7 good, 3 bad, +11.1 pts)
TEN – DeMarco Murray (7 good, 3 bad, +13.0 pts)
ARI – David Johnson (6 good, 3 bad, +14.5 pts)

Worst overall schedules

HOU – Lamar Miller (2 good, 8 bad, -18.0 pts)
DET – Ameer Abdullah (2 good, 6 bad,  -18.5 pts)
IND – Frank Gore (3 good, 7 bad, -12.3 pts)
CHI – Jordan Howard (3 good, 7 bad, -15.2 pts)

Best six game opening (Favorable/Unfavorable)

OAK – Marshawn Lynch (@TEN, NYJ, @WAS, @DEN, BAL, LAC)
NYJ – Bilal Powell (@BUF, OAK, MIA, JAC, @CLE, NE)
ARI – David Johnson (@DET, @IND, DAL, SF, @PHI, TB)
CAR – Christian McCaffrey (@SF, BUF, NO, @NE, @DET, PHI)
CIN – Joe Mixon (BAL, HOU, @GB, @CLE, BUF, @PIT)
MIN – Dalvin Cook (NO, @PIT, TB, DET, @CHI, GB)

Worst six game opening

CHI – Jordan Howard (ATL, @TB, PIT, @GB, MIN, @BAL)
NO – Mark Ingram (@MIN, NE, @CAR, @MIA, DET, @GB)
NYG – Paul Perkins (@DAL, DET, @PHI, @TB, LAC, @DEN)
SEA – Eddie Lacy (@GB, SF, @TEN, IND, @LAR, @NYG)
HOU – Lamar Miller (JAC, @CIN, @NE, TEN, KC, CLE)

Best Playoffs (Week 14 to Week 16)

DEN – C.J. Anderson (NYJ, @IND, @WAS)
BAL – Terrance West (@PIT, @CLE, IND)
MIA – Jay Ajayi (NE, @BUF, @KC)
ATL – Devonta Freeman (NO, @TB, @NO)
LAC – Melvin Gordon (WAS, @KC, @NYJ)
TEN – DeMarco Murray (@ARI, @SF, LAR)

Worst Playoffs (Week 14 to Week 16)

TB – Doug Martin (DET, ATL, @CAR)
PHI – LeGarrette Blount (@LAR, @NYG, OAK)
DET – Ameer Abdullah (@TB, CHI, @CIN)
SEA – Eddie Lacy (@JAC, LAR, @DAL)
MIN  – Dalvin Cook (@CAR, CIN, @GB)
LAR – Todd Gurley (PHI, @SEA, @TEN)


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