A sleeper is a player taken as a backup who ends up worthy of being a starter or at least far outplays the draft slot where you selected him. Average Draft Positions (ADP) are taken from MyFantasyLeague.com using only real drafts conducted after August 25.
The Average Draft order shows a general picture of how your draft will happen and where values/sleepers and bad values/busts likely exist. Any green check means the player is a good value that could be taken earlier. A red “X” signifies an overvalued player that is a bad value or just too high of a risk for that spot.
(Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports)
Average draft order – value plays
| ADP | Value | Player | Team | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aaron Rodgers | GBP | No lower risk or higher ceiling. | |
| 2 | Tom Brady | NEP | This seems to pay too much homage to the second half of the Super Bowl. Better situation than 2016 but they won’t all be ATL DEF. A bit high for me. | |
| 3 | Drew Brees | NOS | Has always been worth this much. | |
| 4 | Matt Ryan | ATL | Great spot if not higher. Was #3 last year. | |
| 5 | Russell Wilson | SEA | Healthy again means more running but O-line still bad. Mature offense. Has been Top 10 lock. Little high. | |
| 6 |  |
Derek Carr | OAK | Talented but another bad schedule this year. And just two WRs matter so far. |
| 7 |  |
Jameis Winston | TBB | Love the upside here. Better offense, easy schedule. At worst should be rock solid QB1 but could end up Top 5. |
| 8 | |
Cam Newton | CAR | Shoulder should be better and weapons and schedule are favorable. Mature offense. Stage set for rebound … if healthy. Said to be good to go for Week 1. |
| 9 | Kirk Cousins | WAS | WAS won’t invest but he was #5 and #9 last two years. Nice buy here. Drops with new WRs but could be just as good. | |
| 10 | |
Marcus Mariota | TEN | TEN runs too well to get Mariota enough volume to reach this. Still has not topped 3,500 pass yards. |
| 11 | |
Andrew Luck | IND | When healthy – absolutely. Cannot be sure he is healthy yet. Why risk with other options? No lock to start the year. Was activated so some optimism. |
| 12 | |
Dak Prescott | DAL | He was actually #9 as a rookie and should be one year better. Nice back-up to be sure. Missing Elliott for any amount of time makes Dak more important. And no Elliott could make him run more. |
Sleepers and over-valued players
| ADP | Value | Player | Team | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | Solid pick but has injury issues so get another soon. Martavis Bryant’s return makes this feel better. | |
| 14 | Matthew Stafford | DET | Worse schedule but always a solid back-up that can start in good spots. Never rushes but consistent with pass yards. | |
| 15 | |
Philip Rivers | LAC | Sure, Bolts lose receivers almost weekly but Rivers was Top 10 for last 4 years. Has looked great in the offseason and has more weapons at least for now. |
| 16 | Eli Manning | NYG | Questionable rush offense (Part XII) but adding Brandon Marshall to Odell Beckham won’t hurt. Good backup who always seems to fall short of his potential. | |
| 17 | Andy Dalton | CIN | Picking Dalton as a back-up accepts moderate production in exchange for track record. Won’t kill you, won’t make a difference either. | |
| 18 | |
Carson Wentz | PHI | Tough schedule may hurt but this deep Wentz offers major upside as talented second-year player with improved receivers. This cheap says he only has to fill a bye week but could surprise. |
| 19 | Carson Palmer | ARI | There is no problem taking him this late but he and his receivers are aging. Injury is a concern. Slowed down last year. | |
| 20 | Tyrod Taylor | BUF | Rebuilding year and Taylor better show up or someone else will in 2018. Better rusher than passer which helps in fantasy but less so in “job keeping”. | |
| 23 | |
Deshaun Watson | HOU | This is far too early but at the #23 QB – what the heck. Remember how surprised we were with Cam Newton? Like Watson next year and maybe could this year. Worth the risk this deeply at the throw-away level. |
| 21 | |
Jay Cutler | MIA | This is not a terrible pick so deep but only reservation is that when you actually need him for a bye week, he will be injured. |
| 22 | Joe Flacco | BAL | Another solid backup type but disc problem in back very concerning. Why risk anything on a mediocre back-up? | |
| 24 | Alex Smith | KCC | You do this in place of screaming “I WAITED TOO LONG FOR A BACKUP QB” |
Best undrafted value
Sam Bradford (MIN) – Second year in the offense and better weapons. Solid backup.
DeShone Kizer (CLE) – Will need to throw a lot and great runner too.
