Everyone knows to start studs in DFS. What can bring home the money in is finding players who will produce at a lower salary that might not be on many lineup cards. Each week we’ll release our top DFS value plays and bargain basement plays to help fill out your lineups.
Week 12 Recap (Points are based on DraftKings scoring)
Andy Dalton: 19.2
Derek Carr: 16.8
Dion Lewis: 15.3
Devontae Booker: 5.3
Mohamed Sanu: 20.4
Kenny Stills: 7.7
Greg Olsen: 2.0
Tyler Kroft: 10.4
Case Keenum, Minnesota Vikings ($6,000 DraftKings) ($7,600 FanDuel)
Keenum continued to play well on Thanksgiving, throwing for 282 yards and two touchdowns. He also rushed for a score. In his last four games, Keenum has thrown for at least 280 yards with 10 touchdowns and three interceptions.
Keenum’s salary is finally starting to rise but he’s good value for one more week. The Falcons have been average against quarterbacks this year. Atlanta’s defense allows the 18th most fantasy PPG to quarterbacks on DraftKings (17.8) and the 17th most on FanDuel (17.2). The Falcons have given up multiple touchdowns to an opposing quarterback five times in 2017.
Keenum has scored at least 17 DraftKings points in each of his last four games. In two of those games, he’s put up over 25 points (27 and 29). Keep riding the hot Keenum with his beatable matchup this week.
Bargain Basement Play
Josh McCown, New York Jets ($5,500 DraftKings) ($7,700 FanDuel)
McCown threw for 307 yards and three scores in a losing effort against the Panthers on Sunday. He’s been a strong streaming option all year against favorable matchups scoring at least 17 DK points six times. McCown has recorded at least 25 DK points in three of his last six games.
This week McCown gets another favorable matchup versus the Chiefs. Kansas City is allowing the 12th most fantasy PPG to quarterbacks on DraftKings (19) and the 11th most on FanDuel (18.4). The Chiefs have given up at least 249 yards to a quarterback six times this year and a total of 18 touchdowns to the position.
McCown is typically not heavily owned in DFS and that’s projected to be the case again this week. He’s once again a good bargain play based on his salary and matchup.
Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead, New England Patriots ($5,500/$5,000 DraftKings) ($6,300/$5,900 FanDuel)
Lewis delivered for us last week with 112 yards on 15 carries. He’s now scored at least 15 DK points in three straight games.
Lewis is the Patriots top fantasy back but Burkhead has eclipsed James White as the second-best option. Against the Dolphins, Burkhead rushed for 50 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries. He also caught a touchdown pass. Burkhead has scored at least 15 DK points in three of his last four games.
Burkhead and Lewis have a top matchup this week going against the reeling Bills defense. Buffalo allows the third most fantasy PPG to running backs (DraftKings 27.7, FanDuel 24.3). If you’re thinking about Burkhead, the Bills allow an average of 5.5 receptions per game to opposing running backs. Six different backs have caught at least four passes versus Buffalo this season.
Both Lewis and Burkhead are strong options this week in a game where the Patriots could jump out to a big lead. We’ll give a slight lean to Burkhead because he catches more passes and has a lower salary but each back should get plenty of opportunities Sunday.
Bargain Basement Play
Jamaal Williams, Green Bay Packers ($4,700 DraftKings) ($5,700 FanDuel)
Williams rushed for 66 yards and a touchdown, while also catching four balls for 69 yards and a score against the Steelers Sunday night. Aaron Jones and Ty Montgomery both look like they’ll be out again this week. Williams has gotten 20, 18 and 21 carries in his last three games since he’s taken over as the Packers lead back. He’ll be in line for another heavy workload this Sunday in a favorable matchup against the Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay has struggled to stop both the pass and run this season. The Buccaneers are allowing the 13th most fantasy PPG to running backs (DraftKings 24.8, FanDuel 21.4). Tampa Bay has allowed over 50 yards rushing to an opposing running back nine times and multiple touchdown games four times.
Williams is one of the few running backs in the NFL right now likely to get over 20 touches. Combine that with a good matchup and a low salary and it makes Williams a strong start this week.
Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams ($6,400 DraftKings) ($6,300 FanDuel)
Kupp has seen at least seven targets and caught six, six and eight passes in his last three games. Last Sunday with Robert Woods injured, Kupp caught 8 of 11 targets for 116 yards. He’s also been by far the Rams top red zone receiver. Kupp has been targeted in the red zone 17 times this year.
Kupp should remain Jared Goff’s top target this week against the Cardinals. Patrick Peterson is likely to be on Sammy Watkins, allowing Kupp to feast on a defense that’s allowing the 11th most fantasy PPG on DraftKings (33.9) and the ninth most on FanDuel (27.9). The Rams have allowed at least four receptions to 12 different receivers and 11 total touchdowns.
Kupp is expected to have ownership numbers around 20 percent but he’s still worth playing. The Cardinals secondary outside of Peterson has really struggled to cover receivers this season.
Bargain Basement Play
Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers ($3,900 DraftKings) ($5,200 FanDuel)
Cobb had his second best fantasy output on DraftKings (15.8) last week after he caught four passes for 58 yards and a touchdown against the Steelers. Even though Cobb has put up fewer than 10 fantasy points five times this year, it’s hard not to like any receiver going up against the Buccaneers defense.
Tampa Bay is allowing the most fantasy PPG to wide receivers by a wide margin (DraftKings 45.7, FanDuel 36.3). Julio Jones just ripped the Bucs secondary for 12 receptions, 253 yards and two scores. Cobb may not be Julio, but Tampa Bay defense has given up at least five receptions to opposing receivers 13 times this year, along with 14 touchdowns.
Davante Adams is clearly Brett Hundley’s favorite target. However, there should be plenty of opportunities for Cobb to eat against the porous Buccaneers secondary as well this week.
Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Rams ($4,700 DraftKings) ($5,400 FanDuel)
Henry has been inconsistent in 2017. He’s coming off his best performance of the season against the Broncos though. Henry caught five passes for 76 yards and a touchdown. He’ll have a chance to put up two big weeks in a row when he faces the Browns on Sunday.
Cleveland has been gashed by tight ends all year. The Browns are allowing the second most fantasy PPG to tight ends (DraftKings 16.7, FanDuel 13.6). Cleveland has given up a touchdown to tight ends in four straight games. They’ve allowed nine touchdowns to tight ends overall and given up at least six receptions to the position six times.
Henry is always a bit of a risk because his fantasy value relies heavily on scoring. However, against the Browns, his chances of scoring are pretty good.
Bargain Basement Play
Ricky Seals-Jones, Arizona Cardinals ($3,200 DraftKings) ($5,600 FanDuel)
Seals-Jones proved his Week 11 breakout performance wasn’t a fluke. Seals-Jones caught four passes for 72 yards and a touchdown. He has seven receptions for 126 yards and three touchdowns in his last two games. Seals-Jones played with Blaine Gabbert on Arizona’s scout team and the two seem to have a connection on the field.
Seals-Jones will be a contrarian play this week. Despite scoring 17.2 and 20.4 DK points in his last two games, Seals-Jones is expected to have low ownership in a tough matchup with the Rams. Los Angeles is only allowing 3.8 receptions per game to tight ends.
Seals-Jones’ salary is a bit higher on FanDuel but on DraftKings his salary ranks 15th among tight ends. He’s worth a look at that bargain price.
Tennessee Titans ($3,400 DraftKings) ($4,700 FanDuel)
Last week the Titans defense dominated a Colts offense that allows the most fantasy points to team defenses. Tennessee finished with eight sacks and a fumble recovery. The Titans defense has been solid versus bad offenses this year. The Texans are a bad offense with Tom Savage at quarterback. Houston allows the fifth most fantasy PPG to team defenses (9.9). The Titans have scored at least 10 DK points in three of their last six games. Ride them again this week.
Bargain Basement Play
Oakland Raiders ($3,100 DraftKings) ($4,600 FanDuel)
The Raiders haven’t been a great fantasy defense this season but they’re getting their second strong matchup in a row. Last week Oakland recorded five sacks and its first interception of the year versus the hapless Broncos offense. This week the Raiders get a Giants team that benched Eli Manning for Geno Smith. Smith has very little to work with at the receiver position, so it could be another long day for the Giants offense. Take a shot with the Raiders defense if you’re looking for a cheaper option with upside this week.