Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

The Strength of Schedule is determined by matching up the fantasy points allowed for each defensive venue (home and away) against the looming schedule for each offense. While defenses will not perform exactly the same as last year, it at least yields a reference point to consider when valuing players. For the first time, I have altered the previous year’s stats by improving the Rams and lowering the Seahawks due to significant personnel moves each franchise made in the offseason. It is only the extreme results that are truly notable.

To remove the effects of the unusually bad or good game, defensive performances had their best and worst game removed before determining their average fantasy points allowed for each position.

Three different views are given below – Weeks 1 to 6 show what players will face as they start the season. Weeks 1 through 16 are shown for a full season view and weeks 14 to 16 show the most common weeks for fantasy playoffs. Below that is the NFL schedule marked for each team to show when they have good (green) or bad (red) match-ups. The Dorey Rule is “draft as if the season only lasted the first six weeks”. Those first six games will determine if you get out to a hot start or are trailing by mid-season.

This analysis considers running backs awarded 0.1 points per rushed or received yard and six point touchdowns and one point per reception. This is the most common fantasy scoring for running backs.

Notable Schedules:

Jordan Howard, Tarik Cohen (CHI) – There is a new offense with head coach Matt Nagy and the rookie quarterback Mitchell Trubisky struggled last year. But, the offense added all new receivers in Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, Trey Burton and rookie Anthony Miller to concern the defenses. And the backfield enjoys the lightest schedule in the NFL this year with half of their games going against the weak venues. Better yet, five of the final nine weeks offer that advantage including a Week 16 matchup versus the 49ers. The schedule is only average in the first half of the year but then becomes superior to all others. That’ll help Jordan Howard the most since he plays outside in all but two weeks in the latter part of the season.

Sony Michel, Rex Burkhead, James White (NE) – The backfield is never easy to forecast and often changes roles as the season progresses. But the first-round rookie Sony Michel gets his shot to likely dominate against a schedule that features only one bad matchup over the initial nine games and yet five soft matchups over that time. Michel has the most upside of the group and could carve out a permanent role thanks to facing mostly lesser opponents to start the year.

Carlos Hyde, Nick Chubb, Duke Johnson (CLE) – Another logjam for a backfield enjoys a lighter schedule. Almost half of the Browns games face a weaker rush defense and there’s all new firepower with Carlos Hyde and the rookie Nick Chubb joining third-down back Duke Johnson. The season winds down with two of the final four games played in Houston and Denver but otherwise six of the first 12 weeks should generate solid fantasy points – the question is if either Hyde or Chubb dominate or if a split workload hurts both.

Todd Gurley (LAR) – While Gurley hardly needs any help, he’ll likely maintain his elite statistics while facing one of the lighter slates of defensive venues. His final game of the fantasy season has him playing in Arizona, but he plays in only two bad venues between Weeks 2 and 15 while going against seven advantageous matchups. That will rightfully keep him in consideration as the first pick in every fantasy draft this summer.

Marlon Mack, Nyheim Hines (IND) – The Colts released Frank Gore but did little to replace him other than pick up the diminutive rookie Nyheim Hines in the fourth round and then Jordan Wilkins at the end of round five. Marlon Mack is line to be the primary rusher despite only rushing 93 times as a rookie and averaging 3.8 yards per carry. He’ll face a brutal schedule with eight bad matchups and only three plus games.

Rashaad Penny (SEA) – On the positive, the rookie Rashaad Penny is the best back in Seattle since 2014 when Marshawn Lynch last played a full season. But the offensive line remains a work in progress (at best) and the schedule is no friend. Penny faces eight bad matchups behind those blockers and doesn’t catch any break until the second half of the season. There’s minimal other talent in Seattle so Penny will remain as good as it gets. But unlike his fellow rookie rushers, he’ll start his career with the worst combination of offensive line and schedule.

Week-By-Week