Sleepers and Value Plays: Quarterbacks FINAL

By David Dorey | August 23, 2019 Follow @DMDorey

A sleeper quarterback is a player taken as a backup who ends up worthy of being a starter or at least far outplays the draft slot where you selected him. Average Draft Positions (ADP) are taken from MyFantasyLeague.com using only real drafts conducted after August 15.

Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

The Average Draft order shows a general picture of how your draft will happen and where values/sleepers and bad values/busts likely exist. Any green check means the player is a good value that could be taken earlier. A red “X” signifies an overvalued player that is a bad value or just too high of a risk for that spot.

Average Draft order – Value plays

ADP	Tm	Player	Analysis
1	KC	Patrick Mahomes	5000 yards, 50 TDs in his first year playing? Yeah. Nice pick. Bet you still made it too early though.
2	HOU	Deshaun Watson	Rushing and passing totals make him a top-three QB in every draft.
3	GB	Aaron Rodgers	Always elite when healthy and this year opponents not sure what to expect in the new offense.
4	CLE	Baker Mayfield	Even Brett Favre said he reminds him of Brett Favre. He’s made the Browns competitive. Let that sink in.
5	ATL	Matt Ryan	Matt Ryan is either a top QB or barely average and does it every other year. Last year was big. 2017 he was #14. Schedule much worse than last year. Don’t draft for last year.
6	IND	Andrew Luck	And… he’s gone!
7	PHI	Carson Wentz	I won’t touch a guy that gets injured every year. Just too many other options. Great when healthy. Might be huge. Gonna happen on someone else’s team though.
8	SEA	Russell Wilson	This may be a bit high. The Seahawks ran more than any other team last year. Wilson was only #10 in 2018 and was healthy. I wouldn’t take him this early but he’s been the savior in Seattle.
9	CAR	Cam Newton	Needs to stay healthy and comes back from a shoulder injury. But has ended in the top-two for QB twice in the last four years. Was looking healthy again but then just sprained his ankle in his Week 3 game.
10	NO	Drew Brees	Maybe his years as a top-five QB are over, but Brees as a backup? Yeah, I can deal with that. Still ended as the #8 QB last year. Right spot maybe but still feels like a steal on name alone.
11	LAR	Jared Goff	Goff ended as the #6 QB last year with 4,688 yards and 34 TDs. This year Rams will be prepared in case Gurley goes AWOL again. Goff has plenty of targets. Plenty. Cooper back makes a big difference.
12	TB	Jameis Winston	Solid pick. Winston also has plenty of talented targets, a poor rushing game and HC Bruce Arians whispering QB tips and techniques to him. Upside is higher than this.

Sleepers and over-valued players

ADP	Tm	Player	Analysis
13	ARI	Kyler Murray	Okay, look. I get it. We all want the next Patrick Mahomes/Deshaun Watson. And maybe Murray is it but as a rookie, he has not impressed much in camp or preseason games. Has a terrible O-line which won’t help. He will run the ball and that helps. So long as he is a backup and not a starter for you, then could be a fun pick.
14	PIT	Ben Roethlisberger	Comes off a career year but loses Antonio Brown. No one is sure quite where he belongs. I’d let someone else figure that out. 2018 was the first time in four years that he played all 16 games.
15	NE	Tom Brady	Maybe Pats fans consider it sacrilegious, but Tommy was only #11 last year and NE brought in more RBs and lost Gronk. And at 42 years old, fantasy owners hold their breath until he gets back up after every hit.
16	BAL	Lamar Jackson	Granted. His passing was the worst in the league. And his rushing was best in NFL history. As a backup, willing to see if his passing improves. He says he will run less but let’s see what happens when the ball is snapped.
17	DAL	Dak Prescott	Maybe Prescott hasn’t been better than the #9 QB in his three years, but he also has never been worse than #12 and now he has Cooper, Cobb, Gallup, and Witten. And if no Elliott, then plenty of Prescott.
18	LAC	Philip Rivers	Yeah, he’s 38 years old. And he was #13 last year. But he was top-ten in the five years prior. Another great pick for backup QB. And if Gordon situation goes south, then Rivers will be throwing and throwing and …
19	MIN	Kirk Cousins	Apparently, the specter of Dalvin Cook being used as a full-time RB plus a tougher schedule drops him despite being top-ten in each year since 2014. Seems like a very sweet backup this deep.
20	JAC	Nick Foles	This deep means he’s just a bye week filler but Foles brings all-new upside to the new offense in JAC. Don’t think Blake Bortles II, think SB LII MVP. Now put him on the Jaguars and maybe this will work out.
21	CIN	Andy Dalton	He should be this good but Dalton has always produced moderate to low fantasy games for the last several years. You waited too long to get your bye week covered.
22	NYG	Daniel Jones	Okay, he looked great in a preseason game against defenders that are mostly going to be building decks or landscaping by September. A lack of targets alone makes this unappetizing and, oh yes, he is not even the starter yet.
23	CHI	Mitchell Trubisky	Solid fantasy backup QB so far. Has a far better schedule and healthy receivers in the second season of HC Matt Nagy’s offense.
24	BUF	Josh Allen	He was red hot to end 2018 and ran over 90 yards in four of last six games. He’ll improve passing and hopefully still run at least some of the time.