Well, last week was certainly a fun week. I had a rough start to the day but finished up with a big payday on Fanball. While it certainly wasn’t my biggest payday ever, it always feels remarkable to take down a GPP. But instead of taking down just one GPP, I managed to take down the four largest GPPs on the Fanball Super Flex slate. Incorporating Super Flex into full slate DFS is one of the things that I really enjoy about playing on Fanball. If you want to try your luck in that format, visit fanball.com. As always, you can find my non-Super Flex Fanball lineup below along with my recommended lineups for DraftKings, FanDuel, and FantasyDraft. Also, remember that next week we will have a bonus Dominator to help you set your Turkey Day lineups.
The Evening Slate:
The NFL flexed Green Bay at the 49ers into SNF. This should be a fun game. Both of these teams have quality offenses, and both have some cracks in their defensive armor. San Francisco has effectively shut down most of the QBs they have faced this year. However, in the last three weeks, they have faced Kyler Murray twice and Russell Wilson. These two have effectively caused San Fran fits with their ability to run the ball. Aaron Rodgers is hardly a running QB, but he is capable of scrambling, and he has his share of short-yardage TDs for his career. Rodgers is likely safe for 250-2 through the air, and he might score one on the ground. Jimmy Garoppolo has arguably the best matchup on this slate, and he didn’t seem to slump last week without George Kittle and with a dinged-up Emmanuel Sanders. I like Jimmy G. to approach 300 yards and throw for three TDs in this spot. The Niners’ run defense left the building five weeks ago. So, both Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams are in play here, although neither is a blow-up play. I obviously lean towards Jones, but I could go with either of them at RB2. RB1 will be Tevin Coleman unless Matt Breida actually suits up. Green Bay is abhorrent against the run. If Breida plays, Jones likely becomes RB1 and Coleman and Breida are still both in play at both RB2 or FLEX. Every WR1 to face Green Bay has had success (especially the speedy ones). Sanders should post solid numbers here, a week further removed from his rib injury. If he was fully healthy, he would be the consensus WR1 here. With the injury, he still is a safe WR2. I am excited to play Deebo Samuel again this week. I have him with another 6-100-1 game and feel he actually has more upside than Sanders. I also like Kendrick Bourne, but would only use him as a FLEX, if I need to save money. Davante Adams is unplayable against this defense. Opposing #1 WRs have done NOTHING since Week 3. The best line over that span was 5-38. Christian Kirk (2x), Cooper Kupp, D.J. Moore, Tyler Lockett, Odell Beckham, and Terry McLaurin have all stunk up the joint against SF. WR2s have fared slightly better against the Niners, so Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Geronimo Allison could be used at FLEX. That said, they have both done nothing recently to suggest they are worth playing here. I feel better about rolling out Allen Lazard at WR3/FLEX. Kittle (if he plays) will abuse this defense. If he doesn’t play, we will see another huge output from Ross Dwelley, since Green Bay is almost as bad at covering TEs as Arizona. Meanwhile, the 49ers have shut down almost every TE they have faced. So, Jimmy Graham is an easy pass here as the worst TE option on this slate. I’ll wait until Monday to choose my defense.
Monday night will be an interesting game. Los Angeles has allowed 45 rushing yards to opposing QBs. That is not per game – that is for the ENTIRE SEASON. Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson has topped that rushing figure in every game except Week 1. In fact, he topped that figure on ONE carry against Cincy two weeks ago. It should be noted that the Rams have faced only one “rushing” QB this year, and that was Russell Wilson. If you take his numbers out of the equation, the Rams have allowed 12 QB rushing yards on 18 carries this year. So, this defense may be tough enough to put a slight muzzle around Jackson’s MVP campaign. Making matters worse, the Rams have allowed zero or one QB score in eight of ten games. So, even the Jackson TDs shouldn’t be presumed here. I expect talent alone to carry Jackson to a pair of TDs, but this may be his worst overall line of the year. The Ravens are equally stingy to opposing QBs. Only one team has scored more than one quarterback TD against this defense and that was back in Week 3. Jared Goff has been on a downward spiral recently and I just cannot trust him to throw for more than 200-1 here. That may be his ceiling this week. The Ravens have been bested by opposing RBs this year. So, Todd Gurley is a possible RB2 option, but I will likely use him as my FLEX. The Rams have been above average against the run, but they can be beaten (especially through the air). Mark Ingram is a capable receiver out of the backfield, so he could also be in RB2/FLEX consideration. That said, he will be much higher owned than Gurley, so I will likely lean towards Todd instead. With Goff shut down, the only WR I would trust here is Cooper Kupp. Slot receivers have fared well against this defense. His ownership could be down this week, following two awful performances. Use this to your advantage as you roll out Kupp at WR1. I’m not going to trust Robert Woods and his “personal situation” or Brandin Cooks fresh off of injury, in what will be a low-scoring contest. If Cooks and Woods are both out, Josh Reynolds might get slight FLEX appeal, otherwise he is firmly on your bench. Opposing WR1s have done zilch against the Rams. So, Marquise Brown has to stay on your bench. There isn’t another WR to trust here either. If there is a passing TD for Jackson here, it will go a TE. The Rams have given up huge games to every decent TE they have faced. I love Mark Andrews and he is the clear TE2 on this slate. Considering, the weak WR corps, I would also consider playing both Andrews and whoever starts for San Francisco. Gerald Everett played sparingly last week due to a wrist injury. This week he faces a team that has been very good against opposing TEs. I’m not counting on much here for him. He is TE3 at best this week. I could see playing either defense here, but Baltimore should be the more popular option. I lean towards the Ravens’ defense as well.
The Main Slate:
Quarterback sucks this week. Matt Ryan is an easy A+ play, but outside of him, it is a black hole. Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston both look good on paper but each feels like a trap. Drew Brees and Derek Carr will likely be my pivot plays from Ryan. I could also consider Sam Darnold or Baker Mayfield if I need to save money (or as my Super Flex play on Fanball). That said, their FD price isn’t much of a discount. Ryan Fitzpatrick on DK is the only punt play that I truly trust. If I want to be really ballsy, I might consider a roster with Dwayne Haskins or Chase Daniel. If I did, I’d have to hyper stack the rest of the lineup with superstars. Ryan, Brees and Carr will run 13% at DK and 14% on FD.
I may actually be forced to pass on Christian McCaffrey this week. He’ll still get his 20+ points, I just don’t see any route to 3x for him here. Alvin Kamara, on the other hand, is due a blow-up here at $2K less. Nick Chubb and Saquan Barkley are possible pivots, but I’m not 100% sold on either crushing it. If James Conner was playing, he has a good matchup, I just highly doubt he plays. If he is ruled out for this game, Jaylen Samuels suddenly becomes a strong RB2 option. I might use a Conner-less Samuels in that spot, or I may pair Kamara with Derrick Henry (DK only), LeVeon Bell or Joe Mixon. David Montgomery and Phillip Lindsay could also be in RB2 consideration, but I’d rather not be over-invested in either of them. I actually kind of hope that Montgomery doesn’t play, because then I can use Tarik Cohen at FLEX. Another possible FLEX is Derrius Guice, especially if Adrian Peterson ends up missing this game due to injury or healthy scratch. I would also have some FLEX appeal in Ronald Jones and Bo Scarbrough. Kamara paired with Henry, Bell or Mixon would run me no more than 30% on DK and 28% on FD. If you choose a FLEX from here keep them under 10%. When you do use C-Mac, consider pairing him with someone in the $5.5K range.
Mike Evans, Michael Thomas and Odell Beckham are all fair pivot plays from the mortal lock WR1 this week, Julio Jones. My feeling is that my WR2 will be from this list: Jarvis Landry, Jamison Crowder, Tyrell Williams and Davante Parker. I like several options at the WR3/FLEX range including: Hunter Renfrow, James Washington, Robby Anderson, Taylor Gabriel, Russell Gage and even Chris Conley. Jones and Landry (my favorite WR2 option) will run me 29% on DK and 25.5% on FD. I wouldn’t spend more than 10% on either WR3 or FLEX here.
Tight end is not pretty this week. The best play may be Ryan Griffin. I don’t mind Jacob Hollister or Jared Cook as pivots but Griffin is just in a better spot. With O.J. Howard in the permanent doghouse, I may also use Cameron Brate. Punt plays that I don’t hate include: Mike Gesicki, Vance McDonald, Dawson Knox and Jaeden Graham. I wouldn’t consider spending more than 9% here.
The Bills, Saints, and Lions are the safest plays but don’t sleep on the Falcons. None of those four will top 7% on DK and the highest priced one is only 8.3% on FD. The Falcons make a nice cheaper option on FD at just over 7%.
Here are my recommended lineups.
At DK: $6.7K for Matt Ryan. $8.2K for Alvin Kamara. $5.2K for Philip Lindsay. $8K for Julio Jones. $4.8K for Robby Anderson. $4.5K for Hunter Renfrow. $4.2K for Ryan Griffin. $5K or less for FLEX. $3.4K for the Bills’ defense.
At FD: $7.9K for Ryan. $8.3K for Kamara. $7.3K for LeVeon Bell. $15.3K total for Julio and Jarvis Landry. $5.9K for Renfrow at WR3. $5.6K for Griffin. $5.4K or less for FLEX (leaning Robby Anderson or Derrius Guice). $4.3K for the Falcons’ defense.
At Fanball (includes Sun Night): Ryan, Kamara, Derrick Henry, Julio, Renfrow, Allen Lazard, Ross Dwelley (assuming no Kittle, otherwise Cameron Brate), LeVeon, and the Falcons’ defense.
At Fantasy Draft (includes Sun Night): Ryan, Kamara, Saquan Barkley, Julio, Lazard, Dwelley (assuming no Kittle), Henry, David Montgomery (or Guice), and the Steelers’ defense.
|Dwayne Haskins Jr.||$4,900||$6,700|
Weekly strategy – Matt Ryan is the obvious play. I will also have some exposure to Drew Brees, Derek Carr, Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield. Darnold is my favorite play from the pivot options. I could also see doing a cheap punt with Mason Rudolph, Ryan Fitzpatrick (DK Only), Dwayne Haskins or Chase Daniel. That said, Haskins and Daniel won’t come into play unless I intend to target a big package including four or more high dollar studs.
Your Fantasy Four Pack:
Matt Ryan, Falcons vs. TB ($6700 DK, $7900 FD)
Over their last eight games, Tampa Bay has allowed a total of 26 QB scores. In addition, they are allowing 317 passing yards per game during that span. Matt Ryan has topped 300 passing yards in six of his last eight contests against Tampa Bay. This includes throwing for a combined 733-5 in two games last year. I have Ryan on 350-3 here, with 160-2 of that heading to Julio Jones.
Drew Brees, Saints vs. CAR ($6600 DK, $8500 FD)
The Panthers are actually pretty solid at keeping QBs out of the end zone with their passes. That said, they have given up huge passing yardage numbers in four of their last six games. Pairing that, with a surging Drew Brees should equate to a solid performance. Just don’t expect 300-3.
Sam Darnold, Jets vs. OAK ($5800 DK, $7400 FD)
It should stand out pretty clear and obvious how rough this slate is when Sam Darnold is the #3 QB in my rankings. I actually will have a ton of exposure to him as a smart pivot from Matt Ryan. He needs to be stacked with either Jamison Crowder or Robby Anderson, and potentially Ryan Griffin, in what should be a high scoring game. I would not be shocked to see Darnold go for 300-3 in this game.
Derek Carr, Raiders @ NYJ ($6100 DK, $7400 FD)
If Darnold is going to go off, then you have to know that Oakland will have to throw the ball too so that they can keep this one close. The Jets have allowed 12 passing TDs over the last four weeks, so Derek Carr should have some room to work with. I really love stacking him with Hunter Renfrow this week. While you are at it, re-stack the game with Crowder too.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Dolphins @ CLE ($5000 DK, $7100 FD)
The Browns have allowed multiple QB scores to every quarterback not named Luke Falk or Mason Rudolph. Meanwhile, Ryan Fitzpatrick continues to defy the years and the talent level of his supporting cast to post meaningful numbers for Miami. With two bad defenses facing off, both QBs could be a sneaky play. I must admit though, I don’t love that FD price.
Mason Rudolph, Steelers @ CIN ($5500 DK, $6900 FD)
Coming off an atrocious Week 11, Mason Rudolph could be a sneaky play here since very few people will trust him enough to start him. Cincy is at best middle-of-the-pack against the pass, but they did allow Rudolph to throw for 229-2 earlier this year. With half of his receiving corps dealing with concussions, Rudolph could look repeatedly to Vance McDonald and James Washington, making each of them a great stack option.
|Ronald Jones II||$4,800||$6,000|
Weekly strategy – Alvin Kamara is super safe since he appears to have his full workload back. I will use him almost exclusively at RB1. If I don’t use him, I may pivot to Saquan Barkley, Nick Chubb, or whoever starts for the Steelers. I could also spend big here and roster two from that list. Most of the time I will pair Kamara with Derrick Henry, LeVeon Bell, Joe Mixon or Phillip Lindsay. Other possibilities I will consider at RB2 include: David Montgomery, Miles Sanders, Tarik Cohen, Derrius Guice, Ronald Jones and Bo Scarbrough. More than likely, I will use one of those players at FLEX. I will have at least one lineup featuring Christian McCaffrey in every tourney, but I know that his price is not easily utilized this week.
Your Fantasy Four Pack:
Alvin Kamara, Saints vs. CAR ($8200 DK, $8300 FD)
Prior to holding the Brian Hill express in check last week, Carolina had given up 12 RB scores over their prior four games. The Panthers didn’t dramatically improve, Brian Hill just proved to not be the real deal. Alvin Kamara is the real deal, and he finally got in a full game’s complement of touches last week as Latavius Murray moved back to his COP role. If this continues (and I suspect it will) this means Kamara is poised for a huge game.
Christian McCaffrey, Panthers @ NO ($10500 DK, $10500 FD)
New Orleans is one of the best teams in the league against the run. Over their last eight games, they are allowing an average of 47 yards per game on the ground to opposing RBs. The potential saving grace for Christian McCaffrey this week is that New Orleans does give up a fair amount of receptions and passing yards to opposing backs. That plays into C-Mac’s strength. I’m not going to completely fade McCaffrey. I’m just not going to be heavily invested.
Nick Chubb, Browns vs. MIA ($8100 DK, $8200 FD)
If Kareem Hunt wasn’t a thing, Nick Chubb would get the top seat this week. Chubb has basically given up passing down duty to Hunt. Fortunately for Chubb, Miami is an equal opportunity suck on defense. They can’t stop opposing backs on the ground or through the air. In a way, this actually makes Hunt a possible sleeper too. Just know that Chubb will get his 125 yards and a score in this one as well.
Saquan Barkley, Giants @ CHI ($7900 DK, $7900 FD)
The Bears’ defense use to be strong against opposing backs. Unfortunately, they have fallen apart since Week 5, struggling against RBs both on the ground and through the air. Saquan Barkley had his bye week to stew over his worst career performance in Week 10. You know that he is chomping at the bit to shed that outing and deliver a performance worthy of his draft status. This may be the cheapest that Barkley will ever be again, use him while you can.
Phillip Lindsay, Broncos @ BUF ($5200 DK, $6300 FD)
You can’t throw the ball outside against Buffalo, so you might as well run the ball or dump it off to your RBs. Over the last two games, Buffalo has allowed 20 receptions to opposing backs. This includes giving up five receptions to the stone hands of Kalen Ballage. If Ballage can catch five passes against this defense, Lindsay might catch 20 himself.
Derrius Guice, Redskins vs. DET ($4700 DK, $5400 FD)
Derrius Guice is back and he instantly becomes the most electrifying RB that Washington has had on their roster in several years. Yes, Adrian Peterson is still there, but Guice can do so much more at this point in his career than AD can do at this point in his career. Peterson is also battling some nagging injuries, so there is a chance that he misses this game. Heck, he could even end up a healthy scratch if Chris Thompson is cleared too. The Lions have allowed 17 total TDs to opposing backs. This includes at least one in every single game. Guice is a lock to score, but his total yardage will be determined by whether or not Peterson plays. If Adrian sits, Guice could put up 150-2 here.
|Odell Beckham Jr.||$7,000||$7,000|
|Allen Robinson II||$6,500||$7,500|
|DJ Chark Jr.||$6,400||$7,000|
|Marvin Jones Jr.||$6,100||$7,200|
|Phillip Dorsett II||$4,100||$5,400|
|Paul Richardson Jr.||$4,000||$5,000|
|Ted Ginn Jr.||$4,000||$5,200|
Weekly strategy – Julio Jones is a lock at WR1. The only players I will pivot from him with are Michael Thomas and Odell Beckham. If I could fit two of them in my lineup, I’d be happy to. I know that won’t likely happen, but it would be fun. The best secondary option would be fitting Jarvis Landry or Jamison Crowder in at WR2. There are several other players I like including: the Oakland receivers, Robby Anderson, DeVante Parker, Chris Conley, James Washington, Taylor Gabriel and Russell Gage. Gage will really be an interesting choice if you want to go mega-stack with Ryan-Julio-Falcons’ defense.
Your Fantasy Four Pack:
Julio Jones, Falcons vs. TB ($8000 DK, $8400 FD)
In 14 career games against Tampa, Julio Jones has averaged 7.3 catches and 121 receiving yards per game. He also has 11 career receiving TDs against this secondary. Now fast forward to the present, this may be the worst secondary that Tampa has ever suited up against Julio. They have been destroyed by every WR1 not named Corey Davis. This includes a ridiculous 27-404-6 allowed to opposing WR1s over their last three games. Julio Jones has one career 250-yard game against this defense. He may repeat that feat this week. This is going to be chalk as hell, but with a floor of 8-130-1, you can’t fade him.
Michael Thomas, Saints vs. CAR ($9300 DK, $9200 FD)
Michael Thomas has double-digit targets in eight of ten games this year. He has also posted a minimum of 8 catches and 89 yards in all but one game. Of course, in that game, he still scored. The Panthers have allowed more than 240 WR receiving yards in four of their last six games. Thomas is option A, B and C in the Saints’ passing game. So, he could be in for another big game. If I go cheap at RB (and I’m not eager to), I could attempt to roster both Thomas and Julio.
Odell Beckham, Browns vs. MIA ($7000 DK, $7000 FD)
Odell Beckham is finally cheap enough and in a great matchup. Only two WR1s have failed to score at least one TD against the Dolphins’ pass defense. Beckham is finally starting to see a worthy target share. Against a lighter opponent such as this, he should finally hit pay dirt. Jarvis Landry is also a great play here if you can’t afford Beckham.
Mike Evans, Buccaneers @ ATL ($7300 DK, $8000 FD)
Only one WR1 to face Atlanta has not topped 100 yards, scored, or both. Mike Evans is averaging 5.6-86 with eight total TDs, in ten career games against Atlanta. Assuming that Jameis Winston doesn’t get yanked due to his INT issues, Evans should have a safe 7-75-1 floor.
Jamison Crowder, Jets vs. OAK ($6200 DK, $6500 FD)
This game should be fairly high scoring since both defenses are weak. In that type of situation, I want as much exposure to the game as possible. Both Derek Carr and Sam Darnold make smart pivots from Matt Ryan (if you want to dodge the chalk). This makes both of their WR1s good stacks as well. Jamison Crowder has scored in three straight games, let’s make it four.
Hunter Renfrow, Raiders @ NYJ ($4500 DK, $5900 FD)
All the WRs are in play in this game. I especially like Hunter Renfrow since he is cheaper than Tyrell Williams. It also helps that the Jets have particularly struggled with opposing WR2s. Philip Dorsett (twice), Chris Conley, Preston Williams, Darius Slayton, and Kelvin Harmon have all made mincemeat of this defense. I like Renfrow to post 6-75-1 as a floor here.
Weekly strategy – I hate almost all the TEs this week. Ryan Griffin has the greatest upside and crumb bums like Jared Cook and Jacob Hollister are among the top options. I also like Cameron Brate, Vance McDonald, Mike Gesicki, Ben Watson and the ultimate punt, Jaeden Graham. The best thing you can do here is just pray for a score.
Your Fantasy Four Pack:
Ryan Griffin, Jets vs. OAK ($4200 DK, $5600 FD)
Presenting, your TE1 for the week (weak)…Ryan Griffin? Geesh, this is ugly, right? Actually, the ugly is Oakland’s handling of opposing TEs. Six teams have topped 65 TE receiving yards against them, and they have allowed four TE scores over their last five games.
Jared Cook, Saints vs. CAR ($4500 DK, $6000 FD)
Carolina is beatable by opposing TEs. Both mediocre and quality opposition has posted solid yardage and reception numbers against this defense. Jared Cook is starting to re-gel with Drew Brees, so he is as good a play as anyone this week. I like the DK price a lot more than the FD price, but Cook might still be a little over-owned on an otherwise weak TE slate.
Zach Ertz, Eagles vs. SEA ($6000 DK, $6100 FD)
This isn’t a bad matchup for Zach Ertz. In fact, I think Ertz has a solid floor of 6-60. Seattle can be beaten by opposing TEs. They have especially struggled against solid TEs (Austin Hooper, Gerald Everett and Vance McDonald). You could make the argument that Ertz is better than all three of them.
Jacob Hollister, Seahawks @ PHI ($4300 DK, $5800 FD)
Jacob Hollister could see a slight slide in targets with the returning Ed Dickson. That would be a punk move by Seattle. Hollister has looked very good in relief of the injured Will Dissly, and Dickson is just a grizzled vet that has never balled out when given the extended chance. Since Week 7, Hollister is 11th among TEs in both targets and receptions. He is also tied for second in TDs scored over that stretch. If Dickson is active, Hollister might have a slightly smaller line. That said, Hollister still should roll up about 5-50, with a chance of a score. That scarily will be top five this week.
Cameron Brate, Buccaneers @ ATL ($3600 DK, $5400 FD)
With O.J. Howard in the permanent doghouse, Cameron Brate exploded back onto the scene last week. Atlanta has given up big games to similarly skilled TEs recently. I could easily see Brate have a solid game here (think 6-60, maybe a score), but he won’t post another 10-73.
Vance McDonald, Steelers @ CIN ($3500 DK, $5300 FD)
Nearly half of the Steelers’ total targets for the season, may miss this game. If that is the case, Vance McDonald quickly becomes a volume-sleeper here. Mason Rudolph has targeted him seven times in each of the last three games. That number should rise here. The Bengals started the season solid against opposing TEs, but over their last two games, they have allowed 19-237-3 to the position.