Through seven weeks of the 2020 season, the NFL is scoring points at a record pace this far into a season. It’s making it hard to bet the Under because the point is getting hit and surpassed so often that those who set the line have to keep raising them.There will be a week that the Under rules, but it may not be for a while and may take bad weather to happen.
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NFL Betting Odds and Lines: Week 8
Atlanta (+120) at Carolina (-143)
There is always one team a season that burns me. Either I pick them to win and they lose or I am late to the party as to how good a team is and I’m not buying it. I don’t expect Christian McCaffrey to play and Atlanta has to avoid finding new creative ways to lose. Take the Falcons on the money line at +120.
Indianapolis (-167) at Detroit (+140)
The Colts are rested coming off their Bye and are favored by just 2.5 points (-121 for Indy, even money for Detroit). The folks in Vegas are going to make us pay up for a spread less than a field goal. Detroit is a much better team at home, but take the Colts and lay the points.
Minnesota (-115) at Green Bay (-106)
Minnesota is coming off its Bye week rested for their rematch, but the Vikings young cornerbacks have been shredded by every veteran quarterback they have faced this season, including Rodgers in Week 1. The spread is Green Bay 7 points (-115 for Minnesota, -106 for the Packers). The Vikings can’t stop Rodgers. Take the Packers and lay the points.
New England (+160) at Buffalo (-189)
A lot of people have lost a lot of money betting against Bill Belichick. I’m not one of them, so I’m avoiding the temptation. The Over/Under is just 42.5 points (-115 for the Over, -106 for the Under). Josh Allen and Cam Newton have the ability to put up points in a hurry with big plays, enough to hit the pee wee number, especially if one team gets a double-digit lead early. Take the Over.
Tennessee (-278) at Cincinnati (-220)
Part of me wants to lay the six points and take the Titans, but the Bengals can put up so many garbage time points. Cincinnati have one of the worst defenses in the NFL and just traded their best pass rusher for magic beans. The Over/Under is a hefty 54.5 points (-110 for both) and Ryan Tannehill should be the man between the 10-yards like and Derrick Henry sops up the gravy with biscuit at the end. We know what Joe Burrow can do. Take the Over.
Las Vegas (+135) at Cleveland (-162)
An Over/Under of 51.5 points (-110 for both the Over and Under), but both offenses have been built around a power-run offense and, while they’ve been forced into high-scoring, throw-all-the-time games, both teams would prefer to run 30-35 times if it is successful. It will be. Take the Under and tune in during the third quarter.
New York Jets (+1200) at Kansas City (-2500)
America’s worst team plays the defending champs. Money line bets like this are typically found in Alabama non-conference cream-puff games. However, my policy will not change. The Jets covered last week because the Bills missed two of the eight field goals they attempted. Eight! Harrison Butker will be kicking extra points, not field goals. Take the Chiefs and lay the points.
Los Angeles Rams (-176) at Miami (+150)
The Rams defense gets the first chance for an NFL defense to go up against rookie Tua Tagovailoa. They Rams are likely to dial up unfilmed looks designed to confuse him. It should work. L.A. is favored by 3.5 points (-106 for the Rams, -115 for the Dolphins. Take the Rams and lay the points.
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Pittsburgh (-155) at Baltimore (-186)
COVID-19 forced the Steelers to blow up their Bye week thanks to Tennessee’s positive tests and changed Baltimore’s Bye week so the NFL could get the Steelers-Titans game made up. The Ravens are rested, which may explain them being a 4-point favorite (-110 for both teams). The Steelers have momentum. Baltimore may well win, but I’m willing to take the Steelers and the points if you’re going to give me more than a field goal.
Los Angeles Chargers (-176) at Denver (+145)
The Chargers finally found a way not to lose a one-score game and may well do the same against the Broncos. But, I think the Over/Under of 44.5 points (-110 for both) is about three points lower than I expected, which I like when that happens. Take the Over.
New Orleans (-209) at Chicago (+175)
The Saints are 4-point road favorites primarily because the Bears offense has somehow been worse with Nick Foles than it was Mitchell Trubisky. But, I’m intrigued with the Over/Under of 43.5 points (-115 for the Over, -106 for the Under). Drew Brees tends to struggle in outdoor games in cold-weather cities, but with Alvin Kamara playing well and Foles needing a pick-me-up game against one of the most penalized secondaries in the league screams Take the Over.
San Francisco (+145) at Seattle (-176)
I have a general rule that if I’m betting on a team to win, I’m almost always willing to lay the points if they are favored by less than three points. Seattle is 2.5 point favorite (-115 for the Seahawks, -106 for the 49ers). You have to follow your track record and history. Take Seattle and lay the points.
Dallas (Off) at Philadelphia (Off)
With the Cowboys starting the Ben DiNucci era if Andy Dalton isn’t back and Dallas ridding themselves of their top three free agent signings doesn’t bode well for Mike McCarthy’s long-term future with the organization. The current line is about 7 points for the Eagles. If DiNucci starts, I’d lay 12. Take the Eagles and lay the points if this one hits the board.
Tampa Bay (-500) at New York Giants (+390)
Strange things have happened when Tom Brady plays the Giants in standalone games. That being said, I think the Bucs are going to roll. I’m not convinced the Giants are going to put up more than 10 points, making the Over/Under of 45.5 a little steep (-115 for the Over, -106 for the Under). I could see the Bucs scoring 35 points, but take the Under because 35-10 won’t get it done.
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