Fantasy football free-agent forecast: Week 11

Fantasy football free-agent forecast: Week 11

Fantasy football roster management tips, strategy and advice

Fantasy football free-agent forecast: Week 11

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Free-agent recommendations refer to 12-team leagues, unless specifically stated otherwise. FAAB $ amounts are based on a $100 budget.

Bye weeks: Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, New York Giants, San Francisco 49ers

Fantasy football waiver wire targets

Quarterbacks

Priority Free Agent

Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons

Update: Drew Brees is out indefinitely after breaking multiple ribs, making Winston is a must-add. He’s also a worthwhile play vs. the lowly Atlanta pass defense in Week 11. Winston is trying to prove he belongs among the ranks of NFL starters and has a significant financial incentive, not to mention the weapons and coaching staff to succeed.

Availability: 99%
FAAB:
$9-10

Running backs

Priority Free Agent

Salvon Ahmed, Miami Dolphins

Musical running backs continues in South Beach. The Dolphins with be without Myles Gaskin for at least Week 11, and Matt Breida remains up in the air after a questionable tag didn’t translate to a  Week 10 active status. Ahmed scored 16 PPR points with Jordan Howard a healthy scratch vs. the Los Angeles Chargers, logging 21 carries for 85 yards and a TD. Ahmed chipped in one catch for five yards. The Denver Broncos are ahead, and the way Las Vegas, as well as others of late, ran against this defense, Ahmed is a must-play in most any redraft format. Be aware, though, this could be a short-term rental just as soon as Ahmed could earn a season-long role.

Availability: 86%
FAAB:
$10-12

Grab & Stash

Sony Michel, New England Patriots

Michel is close to returning from a quad injury, and it could be as soon as Week 11. The matchup (at Houston) is among the most easily exploitable of the the upcoming slate, although there’s serious question as to whether Michel has a prominent role upon his return after recent sucess by Damien Harris. That said, given our proximity to the playoffs and positional scarcity, Michel has the pedigree of a player worth stashing.

Availability: 64%
FAAB:
$2-3

Wide receivers

1-Week Plug & Play/Grab & Stash

Allen Lazard, Green Bay Packers

Reminder/repeat from last week … Lazard was close to returning and figures to be on the cusp of it any moment now. It’s kind of surprising he wasn’t activated for Week 10, in fact. The upcoming matchup could be counterintuitively intriguing. The Indianapolis Colts host Green Bay in Week 11 and pose a tough opponent, on paper, although there’s something to be said for the added attention teams have paid in recent weeks to slowing Davante Adams as it has directly corresponded with huge days for Marquez Valdes-Scantling.

Availability: 56%
FAAB:
$3-4

Willie Snead, Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans

Averaging six targets in the last three contests, Snead’s increase in action finally paid off with a pair of scores against the Pats on Sunday night. He landed five of his seven looks in weather that couldn’t have been much worse. He appeared here a few weeks back and has resurfaced due to sustained involvement and a strong matchup for Week 11. Tennessee has yielded way for huge receiving results in the last five weeks and throughout 2020. This is by far the best matchup for receptions (25 more than 2nd place), and it’s No. 2 for yardage gains. Seven TDs have been had by WRs in those five games.

Availability: 78%
FAAB:
$3-4

1-Week Plug & Play

Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

In the last three games, the veteran has seen at least five passes come his way in each outing. While last week’s performance was a dud, as have been many in 2020 for Fitzgerald, he also faced the third-toughest defense of his position over the past five weeks. Seattle remains the best matchup using recent and season-long data. In Week 9, Fitz saw season-high figures for targets, receptions and yardage vs. this same defense. Too much attention will be paid to slowing DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk, leaving Fitz to fall through the cracks.

Availability: 53%
FAAB:
$1-2

Watch list

Parris Campbell, Indianapolis Colts

He’s eligible to return this week, so keep tabs on the speedster’s status. The Colts have an obvious need for help at the position, and Campbell offers a nice contrast to possession receiver Michael Pittman Jr. — a previous recommendation in this article series and one for whom players should once again check their wire, too.

Availability: 82%

Tight ends

1-Week Plug & Play

Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Prior to holding Eric Ebron to a 2-38-0 line in Week 10 — a game in which Pittsburgh’s receivers worked Cincinnati all over the field — the Bengals had given up six touchdowns to tight ends in the previous four contests. Washington has a few emerging young wideouts in Steven Sims, Isaiah Wright and Cam Sims, yet it’s Thomas with a better floor-to-ceiling ratio. He has at least four targets in every game this year and 12 in the last two outings. Even with a two-game scoreless streak, Thomas has scored 10-plus PPR points in three of his last four appearances.

Availability: 56%
FAAB: $2-3

Kickers

1-Week Plug & Play

Jason Sanders, Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos

Aside from the obvious elevation advantage, Denver has given up a mess of three-point kicks in the last four games. On the year, the Broncos have permitted 25 attempts in nine games, which is the second most in the league. Since Week 6 concluded, this unit has afforded the position an average of four field goals a game (that’s ridiculous) and all but one has split the pipes. Sanders has booted double-digit fantasy points in four of his past six outings.

Availability: 49%
FAAB:
$0-1

Mike Badgley, Los Angeles Chargers vs. New York Jets

This one really could go either way, but there’s been a notable trend for Badgley — his best games in 2020 have come against teams ranking inside of the top 12 for most field goal attempts allowed. New York has yielded the third-highest rate of three-point tries on the year. These teams matchup fairly well, and it shouldn’t be walk in the park for the LA offense.

Availability: 77%
FAAB:
$0-1

Defense/specials teams

1-week plug & play

Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos

The Broncos have ceded only two sacks a game, on average, in the last four outings, but Denver allowing 2.3 takeaways per week makes this an intriguing matchup for the inconsistently productive Miami. There is enough upside for gamers to toss a buck or two at this defense, but there’s a modest expectation that should be kept in mind. Be quite pleased if you come away with a two or three sacks and a couple of turnovers.

Availability: 65%
FAAB:
$1-2

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