It’s rare to have a week so deep into an NFL season that has as many games with significant playoff implications, but Week 11 has them from start to finish.
The weeks opens with a Thursday night matchup between the Cardinals (6-3) and Seahawks (6-3) and extends into the Sunday afternoon games with the Titans (6-3) at the Ravens (6-3) and Packers (8-2) at the Colts (6-3). The week ends with a pair of prime time showdowns – the Chiefs (8-1) at the Raiders (6-3) during Sunday night and the Rams (6-3) at the Buccaneers (7-3) during Monday night.
There will be a lot at stake this week – not just for current positioning, but potential tie-breakers when the regular season comes to an end.
NFL Betting Odds and Lines: Week 11
Arizona (+150) at Seattle (-176)
The Over/Under on this game is a whopping 57.5 points (-110 for both Over and Under). The teams combined to score 71 points in their first meeting, but that has been an outlier. It’s only the third time in their last 14 meetings they’ve gone over the point for this week. Take the Under at -110 and hope for two or three 10-play drives to eat up clock time.
Philadelphia (+155) at Cleveland (-182)
The Browns are favored by 3.5 points (-121 for Philly, 100 for Cleveland). This bet is based on the data. NFC East teams are 2-18-1 in games outside their division and 0-7-1 against the AFC North. It’s hard to fight those numbers, which show how historically bad the teams in this division are. Take Cleveland and lay the 3.5 points.
Atlanta (+175) at New Orleans (-209)
The Saints offense may well be more explosive with Jameis Winston bombing and throwing as many picks as TDs (three each isn’t unusual). With an Over/Under of 49.5 points (-115 Over, -106 Under), the bait has been laid out. This one could hit 60 (with 21 scored by the defenses on returns). Take the Over at -115.
New England (-141) at Houston (+120)
Every year there is a team that confounds me in having the talent to be good, but betraying you at the pay window. In 2020, Houston is that team. They Patriots won in a Nor’eastern monsoon against the Ravens Sunday night and have to travel to Houston. I hate myself, but take Houston on the Money Line.
Pittsburgh (-435) at Jacksonville (+340)
The “trap game” crowd is skulking around here. The Steelers showed last week that they could abandon the run by choice and throw their way to victory. Jacksonville’s secondary is worse. The Steelers are at -9 (-115 for Pittsburgh, -106 for the Jags). The Steelers won’t finish undefeated, but it won’t be this week. Take the Steelers and lay 9 points at -115.
Cincinnati (100) at Washington (-118)
Scroll back up to the Philadelphia-Cleveland prediction and re-look at the numbers outside the division and vs. the AFC North. Take Cincinnati on the Money Line at even money.
Tennessee (+210) at Baltimore (-250)
Tennessee is no joke. I believe Baltimore is going to win, so I won’t touch the Money Line. But, at 6.5 point favorites (-115 for the Titans, -106 for the Ravens), the Ravens are being given a healthy margin to beat a team that plays their style of football and has beaten them two of the last three meetings. Take Tennessee at +6.5 for -115.
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Detroit (Off) at Carolina (Off)
The general Over/Under number has been around 49 points. With the offenses and, more importantly, the suspect defenses, if one team gets up double digits, it won’t take its foot off the gas. Take the Over.
Miami (-182) at Denver (+155)
All signs point to Miami winning based on record, but temperatures are going to be in the 40s with snow and rain prior to game time predicted. It may not be enough for Denver to win, but as 3.5 point home dogs (-110 for both Miami and Denver), I’d be willing to take Denver and the 3.5 points at -110.
New York Jets (+325) at Los Angeles Chargers (-400)
Hate the Jets. The point spread is Chargers -8.5 (-110 for both teams). I would lay 14. Take the Chargers -8.5 at -110.
Green Bay (+105) at Indianapolis (-125)
Not a fan of the Colts offense. Their defense can limit anyone, but if I’m putting my stacks down on a game, I want the better quarterback more times than not. Aaron Rodgers vs. Philip Rivers? Give me Rodgers and take the underdog Packers on the Money Line.
Dallas (+250) at Minnesota (-304)
Minnesota is a 7-point favorite (-110 for both teams). This is troubling given Minnesota’s shaky secondary, but the Vikings have won three straight against better teams than the current Dallas squad. Take Minnesota and lay the 7 points at -110.
Kansas City (Off) at Las Vegas (Off)
The Chiefs are coming off their bye week and are a 7-point favorite. The Raiders are going to try to take the air out of the ball. That only works if you’re successful. The Chiefs have issues on defense, but can stack the box to stop Josh Jacobs and three-and-outs kill that theory. Take Kansas City and lay the points.
Los Angeles Rams (+160) at Tampa Bay (-189)
The Bucs have the horses to score 30 points. So do the Rams. The Over/Under is 48.5 points. Despite the defenses they’re facing, big plays will be available for both teams. You make need more touchdowns than field goals, but take the Over.
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