Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.
The best fantasy football gamble for Week 13
Tracking my predictions: 4-7-1
Win: Player produces ≥ 80% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >80% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury
It has been a rough go of it for yours truly over the last five weeks … after such a promising start to the year, I’ve flubbed five consecutive picks, with the most recent being San Francisco TE Jordan Reed at Los Angeles Rams. There’s a scenario poker players call going on tilt … this feels like the fantasy football prognostication version of it.
If this were baseball, I’d be considered a competent batter, but in the land of giving advice about a fake lineup, I’m quickly turning into a chump. haha … It comes with the territory, and it’s time to shake off the slump by getting one right in Week 13!
New York Jets WR Denzel Mims vs. Las Vegas Raiders
The rookie receiver has played in only five games to date, and we’re starting to see flashes of why the Jets invested a second-round pick on the vertical threat. He has averaged at least 15.5 yards per catch in each game since debuting in Week 7, and the Baylor product has seen eight targets in three straight outings.
One thing that has me most intrigued by Mims is he has been quarterback- and matchup-proof thus far. He has produced respectable figures against feeble secondaries and more domineering types. He has survived multiple Sam Darnold injuries that led to Joe Flacco getting under center, and the productivity hasn’t missed a beat.
In three consecutive appearances, Mims has produced at least 10.1 PPR points on an awful team that is looking for just about anyone to step up. He has flown under the radar because of this, but it’s only a matter of time before the rook breaks free for a sweet stat line.
The Raiders have been mostly neutral against the position, and in the last five weeks, as many TDs have been scored by wideouts vs. this secondary. The defense has given up touchdowns to vertical types to far, including former Jet Robby Anderson, Buffalo’s Gabriel Davis, and KC’s Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins. Sixteen times in 11 games a wideout has produced at least 10 points, and half of those performances were good for 17 or more in PPR. We’ve seen enough volume from Mims thus far to say he deserves attention in both scoring formats, and adding a touchdown to his typical results would cement his worthiness in a lineup.
Intangibly speaking, after the Raiders were thoroughly embarrassed last week by the Atlanta Falcons, even the lowly Jets should have a fighting chance of moving the ball more effectively than usual. New York’s defense could allow Las Vegas to get on track offensively, which puts the Jets into a pass-friendly situation — a major benefit for Mims.
My projection: 5 receptions, 80 yards, 1 TD (19 PPR points)