Fantasy Football DFS Domination: Week 16

Fantasy Football DFS Domination: Week 16

DFS - Daily Fantasy Football player picks and tips

Fantasy Football DFS Domination: Week 16

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I will once again breakdown the Saturday-only slate and the Primetime-only slate in addition to the main slate. Nothing better to help celebrate the holiday than bonus football and bonus money at the bottom of your stocking. Just don’t let it get so heavy that it hangs down into the fire below. With twelve teams playing outside of the main slate the player pool will be even smaller. Hopefully, our run of small slate success continues on Saturday. Make sure you remember to watch Twitter on both Saturday and Sunday morning for my up to the second top sleeper choices.

 

DFS: The Saturday Slate

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions

Tom Brady looks safe to deploy as the QB1 or QB2 on this slate. Matthew Stafford could be an interesting contrarian play, but I don’t have him higher than QB3 overall.

Whoever starts at RB for the Buccaneers this week has the best matchup on this docket. Ronald Jones got the game day off last week thanks to COVID, with one less day to recover, odds are not good for him returning for this game either. If he plays, I doubt he plays a full complement of snaps. The better hope is that Jones sits out and Leonard Fournette getting a full RB1 workload. In this situation, he is the RB2 behind only Josh Jacobs. This is not a good matchup for D’Andre Swift. Even though he is getting the lion’s share of the touches out of the backfield now, I cannot trust him as anything more than an RB4 here. Adrian Peterson has fallen far enough down the value list that he shouldn’t even be considered.

Last week each of the big three WRs for Tampa Bay returned value against a bad Atlanta pass defense. Detroit’s pass defense is just a smidge better than the Falcons. All three are back in play here. Due to their self-imposed competition, I cannot rank any of them higher than WR3. The Lions have actually allowed consistently more damage to opposing WR2s rather than WR1s. So I give a slight edge to Chris Godwin this week. They have not been great against WR1s either, so Mike Evans can be considered in the WR4/WR5 range. His price will be higher than that value point so I’ll likely fade him. The Lions have not allowed a sizeable game by a WR3 this year. So, I won’t start Antonio Brown unless you feel he has passed either Godwin or Evans on Brady’s pecking order. He does have more targets than Godwin the last two weeks, but that feels like an outlier and not a trend.  The Buccaneers have been whipped by opposing WR1s recently. Barring a Christmas miracle and the return of Kenny Golladay, that role belongs to Marvin Jones this week. He is an absolute must start at WR2 and he is no worse than WR4 on this slate. For some reason, Mohamed Sanu is getting more snaps than Quintez Cephus. Neither is a great play because outside of WR1s, it has been smaller slot WRs that have also had success against this defense. For Detroit, that role belongs to Danny Amendola. I think he makes a sneaky WR3 or even a FLEX play.

Rob Gronkowski was tied for the Buccaneers’ lead in targets last week, but he only caught three passes in an easy matchup. Detroit is middle-of-the-pack at best against the position, but with the possible returns of both Mike Gesicki and George Kittle (not likely) this week, Gronk really is no better than TE4 on this slate. T.J. Hockenson also had a good matchup last week and underperformed. It didn’t help that Hunter Bryant and Jesse James vultured 55 yards from him.  Tampa Bay is bottom-10 against the TE position in every meaningful category, so he remains the safest to finish at TE2 on the slate, and no worse than TE4 overall. Tampa gets the DEF1 nod this week, but it is a stacked field. Detroit has the worst value among all the defenses on the board.

 

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals

With both Jimmy Garoppolo and Nick Mullens likely out for the rest of the year, C.J. Beathard will get the start this week versus Arizona. He is a serviceable veteran with a couple of decent weapons, but he is easily the worst choice among the six starters on the board. Kyler Murray will jockey with Tom Brady for the top option on the slate. The matchup for Murray is tougher, but he has performed admirably in worse spots this season.

Raheem Mostert is once again hurt. He is quickly earning the moniker “injury-prone”. Of course, you don’t get a job as a 49ers’ running back unless you can prove your “injury-proneness”. Jerick McKinnon got some passing game work in late last week, and Tevin Coleman got a few carries at the end of the game. Still, Jeff Wilson has looked to be the most reliable back on the Niners’ roster all year…but now he is injured too. So, either McKinnon or Coleman will lead the offense this week. It is a decent matchup for one of them, but I don’t trust Kyle Shanahan at all to feature either of them. Knowing Shanahanigans, Kyle Jusczcyk will probably lead the backfield in touches. As for Arizona, after several weeks of touch domination for Kenyan Drake, the offense decided to diversify with Chase Edmonds once again. It worked out in terms of the victory for Arizona, but it has to be making Drake owners less than excited about this contest. This wasn’t a good matchup anyway, so I think we can safely avoid both of them.

Even with C.J. Beathard at QB, Brandon Aiyuk is a top-3 WR this week. I’m actually upset that I don’t have more dynasty shares of him. Aiyuk could easily be in consideration as a top-5 dynasty WR as soon as next season. Kendrick Bourne caught a garbage time long TD from Beathard, but he clearly played the game as WR3 behind Richie James. James deserves consideration at WR3, but I feel there are better more reliable options. I’ll ignore Bourne except in single-game showdown contests. San Francisco has a great pass defense but they have been toasted by quite a few WR1s this year including DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins’ volume alone puts him safely as the WR1 overall here. The matchup just makes it look even better especially if people are blinded by the Niners’ pass defense rank number without looking at their position-by-position trends. I’m not sure I’d trust either Christian Kirk or Larry Fitzgerald though. I’m not sure if the volume will be there.

If George Kittle returns this week, he gets the defacto TE2 spot based on name recognition alone. I doubt he plays again this season (although reports suggest he might suit up this week). If anyone is tough enough to come back this year and ball out it is him. Arizona went from biblically bad against TEs to ‘aight over one offseason. Jordan Reed and Ross Dwelley aren’t reliable enough to trust in this spot. Although it should be noted that in both of Beathard’s earlier opportunities, he peppered Kittle with targets. Dan Arnold has been more involved in the Cardinals’ offense recently, he still is easily the lowest-ranked TE among the starters on this slate. There just isn’t a logical argument for playing him here. Arizona probably deserves consideration for your defense choice against the least-skilled QB on the slate, but they are hardly an elite defense option. San Fran is no worse than DEF4 here, but I’m not using them.

 

Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders

Mele Kalikimaka is Hawaii’s way of saying this game will be watched by everyone on the island. Tua Tagovailoa and Marcus Mariota actually bring some excitement to a game that could’ve featured Ryan Fitzpatrick and his Santa beard versus Goth X-Mas eyeliner Derek Carr. Fitzpatrick is already planning his next mentorship (Jacksonville???) while Carr is nursing a groin injury that will keep his bells from jingling at least through the holiday. Both teams struggle with running QBs, so either of these two could easily finish at QB3. Neither is great against the pass either, but Miami does have a better INT-TD ratio. So, perhaps give a minor edge to Tua over Mariota, but not much.

Who will Miami have healthy at RB this week? The Magic Eight Ball I received for Christmas 1984 says “reply hazy, try again”. Salvon Ahmed returned last week and looked dominant, but Myles Gaskin may return this week to re-stake his claim to lead back duties. Plus, you also have the looming specters of veteran Matt Breida, and gadget-back, Lynn Bowden. Vegas is rotten against the run, so if things become clearer prior to game time, using the lead back here at RB2 or FLEX is a great idea. Ahmed is probably the safest play as a returning Gaskin would likely be on a snap count anyway. I also like Bowden as the primary pass-catching option as a cheap FLEX option. You have to use him there or at WR3 because he is not listed as an RB on either DK or FD. For Vegas, as long as Josh Jacobs is healthy he is the RB1 on this slate loaded with convoluted backfields. His backups have once again turned into pumpkins leaving him as a multi-dimensional lead back on a decent offense facing a bad run defense. The only threat to Jacobs’ success this week is the legs of Mariota.

Amazingly, New England’s WRs outshined Miami’s last week. This is because Miami’s WR corps is now down to guys who wouldn’t have played for Philadelphia earlier this year. DeVante Parker has a slight chance to play this week. Still, he is battling a hamstring injury so reinjury is a real threat. Jakeem Grant is in the same boat, but his hammy injury is closer to being fully healed than Parker. Neither is a recommended play here. Isaiah Ford and Mack Hollins did little with their expanded opportunity last week. Vegas’ secondary is not the Patriots’ though so you could plug one of them in as a punt-WR3. I’d lean Hollins if Grant and Parker are both out. Perhaps the best WR play for them is Lynn Bowden (who technically is a WR on both major sites despite his gadget role in this offense). I love Bowden in a showdown slate and using him at WR3 or FLEX gives you some potential wildcat scoring opportunities in addition to pass routes. Las Vegas’ receivers caught six passes last Thursday. Extra practice time with Mariota should bump up that usage this week, but the matchup isn’t great. Henry Ruggs should return from his COVID sentence, but both he and Nelson Agholor get tough assignments on the outside. Hunter Renfrow had only one catch last week, but he may be the safest option against a Miami defense that has done better against WR1s than subordinate receivers. Still, I’m probably avoiding all three.

Mike Gesicki may play this week. If he does, I like him to battle Hockenson for TE2 value. Every quality TE to face Vegas this year has gone off. Gesicki has seen his usage grow over the last month, but then he hurt his shoulder. If Gesicki cannot go, consider Durham Smythe as a TD-dependent punt-TE option. Meanwhile, Darren Waller is the TE1 on this slate. The matchup isn’t great, but Waller is approaching Travis Kelce-usage levels. He also is a coverage nightmare for LBs. As for the defenses, ignore Vegas but consider Miami’s. Neither is as good of a play as TB.

 

DFS: The Primetime Slate

 

Tennessee Titans @ Green Bay Packers

Bet the over! Ryan Tannehill gets the QB2/QB3 rating depending on how much faith you have in Josh Allen versus the Patriots. Of course, they both trail Aaron Rodgers. Both games have the potential threat of weather, but early reports show neither is expected to be game-impacting.

Derrick Henry gets to feast once again against a very beatable Packers’ run defense. Hopefully, Tannehill won’t steal the rushing TDs this time. Aaron Jones’ matchup is just as sweet. He just isn’t quite as elite as Henry. Lock them both in at RB1 and RB2 and build around them. Jamaal Williams didn’t do much last week due to a thigh injury, his value isn’t high this week, maybe RB5 or RB6.

A.B.C.D scores TDs. Together they will split three. Corey Davis gets the better coverage matchup over A.J. Brown, but both are money this week. No other WR has caught a pass for the Titans the last two weeks. One of the two needs to be your WR2. Davante Adams let his owners down last week by catching only seven passes on ten targets. There is zero chance that he lets Aaron Rodgers out of the end zone twice in a row. Tennessee has been treated like a slappy by every WR1 they’ve faced this season. There is little chance they improve that trend against Davante. Allen Lazard actually finished with more yards than Adams last week, and against this defense, he is definitely in play at WR3. Marquez Valdes-Scantling was held catch less last week and he remains a TD-dependent deep threat week-to-week. Of course, against this defense, that TD is also nearly automatic here. MVS needs serious consideration as your WR3 too. This matchup is so sexy, you can easily play one of Marquez or Lazard alongside Adams and not think twice about it. In fact, there is a legitimate argument for using both Titans and two of the Packers at your three WR and your one FLEX slot.

Green Bay has been so-so against the TE position this year. Unfortunately for you as you consider a Tennessee TE, they can’t seem to decide which TE to feature. Jonnu Smith has all the talent but he continues to split reps and targets with Anthony Firkser and Geoff Swaim. This basically neuters all of them. One of this threesome will score this week. I just have no clue which one. Jonnu is the safest but playing him here just doesn’t bring me holiday cheer. Robert Tonyan is TE1, TE2, and TE3 on this slate. All the rest can split TE4-TE12 status. The only position not to target in this game is defense.

 

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots

Josh Allen will be either QB2 or QB3 on this slate. It depends on whether New England can slow him down. His floor this week falls well below both of the SNF QBs, but his ceiling may be higher than both of theirs. Cam Newton is likely not even the best QB on his own team right now. In the horse racing industry, the glue factory would already be en route to the stadium to pick him up. Against the Bills, the best hope for Cam is 150-1 through the air and 40-1 on the ground. A more realistic line is 120-0 and 25-1. Yuck!

Zach Moss has out-touched Devin Singletary each of the last two weeks, but both are in FLEX play this week. New England is bad enough against the run that one (but not both) will score from outside the ten-yard line. This is because once they get inside the ten only Josh Allen carries the ball. Singletary is more heavily involved in the passing game than Moss, so I have better faith in him this week. Damien Harris missed last week with an ankle injury. If he returns he can be in consideration at FLEX, but he is no better than RB4 on the slate. Plus, he will likely have to split touches with Sony Michel and James White. If Harris is out, I actually have more faith in Sony to produce a worthwhile return on investment. White also sees a boost if Harris is out, but he is thoroughly unreliable if all three play.

Jakobi Meyers did well last week. Buffalo has surprisingly struggled against WR1s this year, so I can see an argument for using him at WR3. I see no sane argument for using any other New England WR unless Julian Edelman gets activated. I’m concerned about NE’s defense limiting Stefon Diggs. His salary is high enough that I’d rather use guys in the TEN-GB at WR1 and WR2 instead. Cole Beasley is a much better choice here. I love him at WR2 or WR3. Gabriel Davis could also be considered as a punt-WR3. I’m not going to go any deeper though.

Dawson Knox has been used more often recently scoring in three of his last four games. Still, New England is one of the best teams in the league against the position. If you need to save money consider using him, just know that you are begging for the TD. A team that is not good against TEs is Buffalo. Unfortunately for New England, 48 different TEs have more receptions than their entire position group this season. So no thanks. Buffalo should be the DEF1 here and New England probably gets the DEF2 nod.

 

The Main Slate: My recommended DFS lineups

At DK: $8.5K for Patrick Mahomes. $7.7K for David Montgomery. $4.8K for Giovani Bernard. $4.7K for Tee Higgins. $4.5K for Jamison Crowder. $3.1K for  Mecole Hardman. $8.5K for Travis Kelce. $4.5K for Darrell Henderson at FLEX. $3.2K for the Colts’ defense.

At FD: $9.4K for Mahomes. $7.8K for Montgomery. $6K for Bernard. $6.8K for Cooper Kupp. $5.8K for Higgins. $5.5K for Hardman. $8.8K for Kelce. $5.6K for Henderson at FLEX. $4.3K for the Colts’ defense.

At Fanball (SuperFlex – includes Sun Night): Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers at SF, Montgomery, Henderson, Davante Adams, Hardman, Greg Ward, Kmet, and Derrick Henry at FLEX.

 

DraftKings FanDuel
Patrick Mahomes $8,500 $9,400
Lamar Jackson $8,000 $8,800
Deshaun Watson $7,600 $8,500
Justin Herbert $7,400 $8,200
Russell Wilson $7,300 $7,900
Jalen Hurts $7,000 $8,200
Ben Roethlisberger $6,400 $7,500
Baker Mayfield $6,100 $7,600
Jared Goff $5,900 $7,400
Matt Ryan $5,800 $7,700
Mitchell Trubisky $5,700 $7,200
Philip Rivers $5,600 $7,000
Andy Dalton $5,500 $6,900
Teddy Bridgewater $5,300 $7,100
Alex Smith $5,200 $6,700
Dwayne Haskins $5,200 $6,700
Gardner Minshew $5,200 $6,800
Colt McCoy $5,000 $6,500
Daniel Jones $5,000 $6,500
Drew Lock $5,000 $6,800
Sam Darnold $5,000 $6,700
Brandon Allen $4,800 $6,600
Ryan Finley $4,800 $6,600

Quarterback

Weekly strategy – The cheap seats are not looking very good this week at QB. It is normally anthemic to me to buy the highest-priced QB, but Patrick Mahomes has one of the best matchups of the year. Truthfully Jalen Hurts and Baker Mayfield are the only two high-priced options I’d consider. I don’t mind Jared Goff and Mitchell Trubisky in the mid-range. If I don’t use one of these five, I could see punting down to Drew Lock, Sam Darnold, or even Ryan Finley.

Fantasy Four Pack

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs vs. ATL ($8500 DK, $9400 FD)
Simple logic here – Horrible passing defense + best QB in recent football history = absurd stats. The only thing that could slow (not stop) Patrick Mahomes here would be a blizzard.

Deshaun Watson, Texans vs. CIN ($7600 DK, $8500 FD)
Cincinnati has been getting better against the pass as the season has gone along. Still, Deshaun Watson is hot right now topping 300 yards passing in four of his last five games. Plus, he is averaging over 35 rushing yards per game since his bye in Week 8.

Jalen Hurts, Eagles @ DAL ($7000 DK, $8200 FD)
I am a Carson Wentz apologist. I look forward to watching him succeed next season in Carolina or Indy or New England. That said, there is no denying that Jalen Hurts deserves to be the starter in Philly right now. Dallas has allowed the second-most passing TDs, so I think we can count on a pair of passing scores here (think stack with Jalen Reagor or Greg Ward). Plus, Hurts can hurt you with his feet. Despite running the offense for only two and a half games, Hurts is already the twelfth ranked rushing QB on the year.

Justin Herbert, Chargers vs. DEN ($7400 DK, $8200 FD)
Justin Herbert doesn’t run as frequently as Jalen Hurts or the other “rushing QBs”, but he is eighth with four rushing scores this year. This is important because no team has allowed more QB rushing scores than Denver. In their earlier meeting, Herbert threw for three TDs. A repeat performance is possible here.

DFS Sleepers

Mitchell Trubisky, Bears @ JAX ($5700 DK, $7200 FD)
Mitchell Trubisky may have the softest second-half schedule in the history of football. The FD pricetag is finally on par with his matchup, but he remains an absurd value on DK. In a week with very few values, Trubisky gives you some much-needed savings. Jacksonville has allowed a league-worst 31 passing TDs, so the opportunity will be there.

Sam Darnold, Jets vs. CLE ($5000 DK, $6700 FD) Cleveland’s pass defense is not good. They’ve allowed the tenth-most passing scores. Cleveland also has a very strong offense and they should jump out to a lead against the Jets. This means that Sam Darnold will need to throw to stay in this game. He has a lot of weapons to choose from, and at this price, it won’t take much for him to reach value.

DraftKings FanDuel
Christian McCaffrey $9,200  $10,000
Nick Chubb $7,800 $9,000
David Montgomery $7,700 $7,800
Austin Ekeler $7,600 $7,000
Jonathan Taylor $7,300 $7,500
Miles Sanders $7,000 $7,300
James Robinson $6,800 $6,800
Ezekiel Elliott $6,700 $7,000
Antonio Gibson $6,600 $6,600
Mike Davis $6,500 $6,900
Tony Pollard $6,500 $6,300
Chris Carson $6,400 $7,100
J.D. McKissic $6,400 $5,800
J.K. Dobbins $6,200 $6,300
David Johnson $6,100 $6,700
Kareem Hunt $5,900 $7,200
James Conner $5,800 $6,100
Le’Veon Bell $5,800 $6,400
Wayne Gallman $5,700 $5,900
Melvin Gordon $5,600 $6,400
Benny Snell $5,300 $5,400
Carlos Hyde $5,300 $5,700
Duke Johnson $5,000 $5,200
Nyheim Hines $5,000 $5,600
Boston Scott $4,900 $4,800
Giovani Bernard $4,800 $6,000
Darrell Henderson $4,500 $5,600
Devonta Freeman $4,500 $5,000
Ty Johnson $4,500 $5,300
Gus Edwards $4,400 $5,700
Peyton Barber $4,400 $5,200
Darrel Williams $4,200 $5,400
Frank Gore $4,200 $5,600
Phillip Lindsay $4,200 $5,400
Dare Ogunbowale $4,000 $6,000
Ito Smith $4,000 $5,000
Kalen Ballage $4,000 $5,000

Running Back

Weekly strategy – Nick Chubb gets another cakewalk game and so does David Montgomery. Their price is basically the same on DK, so take your pick. That said, on FD, Monty is way cheaper. For RB2, I like a choice from J.D. McKissic, J.K. Dobbins, and David Johnson. There are a few punt options for rolling out at FLEX. Whoever starts at RB for KC gets consideration, but I will have a hard time ignoring Darrell Henderson and Giovani Bernard.

Fantasy Four Pack

Nick Chubb, Browns @ NYJ ($7800 DK, $9000 FD)
Nick Chubb would be so much more valuable if he got any passing game work. Fortunately, he won’t need any catches while dashing through the Jets. The Jets aren’t the worst team against the run, but Chubb is elite and he should have little trouble here.

David Montgomery, Bears @ JAC  ($7700 DK, $7800 FD)
Over the last four weeks, only Derrick Henry has more total RB yards from scrimmage than David Montgomery. The two are also tied for most total RB scores over that stretch. At this price, you’d be crazy to not use him. Over their last four games, Jacksonville has allowed only 217 total yards per game to opposing backs. I’ll take that production.

Austin Ekeler, Chargers vs. DEN ($7600 DK, $7000 FD)
Anytime your FD price is lower than your DK price, that is a buy moment for me on FD. What stinks here is that Austin Ekeler has ONE touchdown all season. I throw up in my mouth when I watch Kalen Ballage get goal-line snaps. Still, Ekeler is averaging just under ten targets per game since returning from the IR.  So, he should get chances to produce value. In two games last season, while playing second-fiddle to Melvin Gordon, Ekeler caught 19 passes against the Broncos.

Miles Sanders, Eagles @ DAL ($7000 DK, $7300 FD)

Pittsburgh and Atlanta are the only two teams to not watch their RB1s go off against Dallas. This included a solid performance by the duo of Boston Scott and Corey Clement filling in for Miles Sanders earlier this year. Meanwhile, Sanders has one great game and one so-so game with Jalen Hurts under center. You have to fear Hurts stealing his TD opportunities, but Hurts can also open up lanes for him with option runs.

DFS Sleepers

Giovani Bernard, Bengals @ HOU ($4800 DK, $6000 FD)
Giovani Bernard finally got a full complement of touches last week. Imagine what happened, he had a huge game, despite facing an elite defense. This week he faces the worst rushing defense in football. What could possibly go wrong? Right?

Darrell Henderson, Rams @ SEA ($4500 DK, $5600 FD)
Earlier this season, it appeared that Darrell Henderson would make the Rams regret wasting a draft choice on Cam Akers. He has faded fast as Cam Akers burst onto the scene the last few weeks. Now Akers is hurt, so Henderson gets another opportunity to lay stake to a role in the offense next season, or possibly a role elsewhere. Seattle has allowed the eighth-most RB rushing touchdowns. So a score is probable as long as Malcolm Brown doesn’t bogart the goal-line work.

 

DraftKings FanDuel
Tyreek Hill $9,000 $9,400
Calvin Ridley $8,500 $8,700
DK Metcalf $7,800 $7,700
Allen Robinson $7,700 $7,500
Keenan Allen $7,500 $8,000
Robert Woods $7,000 $7,300
Jarvis Landry $6,900 $6,500
Julio Jones $6,800 $7,500
Terry McLaurin $6,700 $7,100
Cooper Kupp $6,600 $6,800
Tyler Lockett $6,500 $6,900
Diontae Johnson $6,300 $6,700
Brandin Cooks $6,200 $7,000
JuJu Smith-Schuster $6,000 $6,800
Chase Claypool $5,900 $6,000
DJ Moore $5,800 $7,200
Amari Cooper $5,700 $6,600
Marquise Brown $5,700 $6,200
Robby Anderson $5,500 $6,600
T.Y. Hilton $5,500 $6,400
Keke Coutee $5,400 $6,100
CeeDee Lamb $5,300 $6,000
Russell Gage $5,100 $5,800
Sammy Watkins $5,000 $5,400
Curtis Samuel $4,900 $5,900
Tyler Boyd $4,900 $6,100
DJ Chark $4,800 $5,900
Rashard Higgins $4,800 $5,800
Tee Higgins $4,700 $5,800
Jalen Reagor $4,600 $5,700
Jamison Crowder $4,500 $6,000
Mike Williams $4,500 $5,700
Sterling Shepard $4,500 $5,500
Chad Hansen $4,400 $5,700
Michael Pittman $4,200 $5,300
Tim Patrick $4,200 $5,500
Michael Gallup $4,100 $5,600
Darnell Mooney $4,000 $5,400
Greg Ward $4,000 $5,500
Tyron Johnson $4,000 $5,600
Demarcus Robinson $3,900 $5,100
Willie Snead $3,900 $5,200
Breshad Perriman $3,800 $5,600
Darius Slayton $3,800 $5,000
Zach Pascal $3,800 $5,000
Donovan Peoples-Jones $3,700 $4,900
Jerry Jeudy $3,700 $5,200
Laviska Shenault $3,700 $5,400
Denzel Mims $3,600 $5,300
James Washington $3,600 $5,400
Keelan Cole $3,500 $5,100
Travis Fulgham $3,500 $5,000
A.J. Green $3,400 $5,500
Golden Tate $3,400 $5,100
Cam Sims $3,300 $5,000
Alshon Jeffery $3,200 $5,300
Anthony Miller $3,200 $4,900
David Moore $3,200 $4,900
Jalen Guyton $3,200 $5,400
Josh Reynolds $3,200 $5,100
KJ Hamler $3,200 $5,300
Mecole Hardman $3,100 $5,500
Collin Johnson $3,000 $5,000
Dez Bryant $3,000 $5,000

Wide Receiver

Weekly strategy – Tyreek Hill is the play of the week, but he is pricy. I almost feel comfier using one of Allen Robinson, Jarvis Landry, or Cooper Kupp at WR1. Diontae Johnson could also be a sneaky pivot at WR1 as Indy has been awful against WRs recently. I think one of the Texans or one of the Cowboys will be my WR2. I might also use Rashard Higgins or Sammy Watkins if I don’t use either Hill or Landry at WR1. The other option I have if I don’t use Tyreek is punting with Mecole Hardman. That is a sneaky way to get exposure to this game for the league minimum. If he is not my WR3, I will likely use Tee Higgins, Tim Patrick, Jamison Crowder, or Greg Ward.

 

Fantasy Four Pack

Tyreek Hill, Chiefs vs. ATL ($9000 DK, $9400 FD)
The best passing offense in football versus the second-worst passing defense in football. It is time to embrace the fact that Tyreek Hill has scored more total TDs than any non-QB this year. Tyreek’s price is high but I will figure out how to put together a couple of triple-stacks with him, Patrick Mahomes, and Travis Kelce. When I don’t use Hill, I guarantee you that I will have either Sammy Watkins or Mecole Hardman in my lineup.

Allen Robinson, Bears @ JAC ($7700 DK, $7500 FD)
Jacksonville has allowed the fourth-most WR scores and the sixth-most WR receiving yards. Meanwhile, Allen Robinson has scored and/or topped 70 receiving yards in 11 of his 14 games. In each of the three games, he failed to reach that mark he was still targeted nine times, so the volume was there. In a revenge game, Robinson should go off.

Calvin Ridley, Falcons vs. KC ($8500 DK, $8700 FD)
Calvin Ridley is the roll-it-back play in this game. He has been blowing up the stat sheets the last three weeks while Julio Jones has been out. If Jones returns (even as a decoy), I reckon that it should relieve some coverage from Ridley. So, I’m not concerned about his numbers taking a hit. I’m more concerned that KC has allowed the second-fewest receiving yards to the position. Atlanta has enough offense and no defense, so points will be scored here.

Cooper Kupp, Rams @ SEA ($6600 DK, $6800 FD)
Cooper Kupp’s numbers are down the last two weeks. This has been due to an attempted commitment to the run by Los Angeles. Still, this game will require some scoring (and Cam Akers is out) so Jared Goff will have to shoulder more of the load. Robert Woods is a bit pricier, so I am going to use Kupp instead to save money.

DFS Sleepers

Tee Higgins, Bengals @ HOU ($4700 DK, $5800 FD)
Tee Higgins led the Bengals in catches and targets last week with Tyler Boyd getting knocked out early. The numbers weren’t much, but it was against the Steelers. This week the Bengals face the much easier Texans. Boyd remains in the concussion protocol, so Higgins once again should get a chance to lead this offense.

Greg Ward, Eagles @ DAL ($4000 DK, $5500 FD)
Since Jalen Hurts took over, Greg Ward trails only Dallas Goedert among Eagles’ offensive contributors in targets and receptions. Unfortunately, he has turned those targets and receptions into only 92 yards. The thing Ward has going for himself is that he has three of Hurts’ five passing TDs. So, they obviously have a connection. That means that he is mostly TD-dependent, but that is ok since Dallas has allowed the most WR scores.

 

DraftKings FanDuel
Travis Kelce $8,500 $8,800
Mark Andrews $5,700 $7,000
Logan Thomas $4,900 $6,000
Noah Fant $4,800 $6,200
Hunter Henry $4,700 $6,100
Eric Ebron $4,200 $5,500
Tyler Higbee $4,000 $5,800
Evan Engram $3,900 $5,300
Dallas Goedert $3,600 $5,700
Austin Hooper $3,500 $5,100
Hayden Hurst $3,400 $5,600
Jordan Akins $3,300 $5,100
Dalton Schultz $3,200 $5,200
Vance McDonald $3,200 $4,200
Jimmy Graham $3,100 $5,400
Zach Ertz $3,100 $5,500
Cole Kmet $3,000 $5,400
Tyler Eifert $3,000 $4,600
Drew Sample $2,900 $4,700
Jacob Hollister $2,900 $4,800
Gerald Everett $2,800 $4,800
Jack Doyle $2,800 $4,700
Trey Burton $2,700 $5,200
James O’Shaughnessy $2,500 $4,100

Tight End

Weekly strategy – Travis Kelce is primed for a huge game here. His salary reflects it. Mark Andrews is a little cheaper on DK but not enough on FD to consider him there. Noah Fant and Logan Thomas are also facing good matchups while producing enough to command consideration. Still, there isn’t a better cost vs. return play this week than Austin Hooper. If I don’t use Kelce, I will likely use Hooper. The only punt play I will be overly exposed to is Cole Kmet.

 

Fantasy Four Pack

Travis Kelce, Chiefs vs. ATL ($8500 DK, $8800 FD)
Atlanta has allowed the second-most receptions to the TE position. They are also among the league’s worst in yardage and scores allowed to tight ends. When it comes to tight ends, Travis Kelce is an elite wide receiver. You must use either him or Tyreek Hill as your high-priced receiving option. Just remember it will be very hard to roster both of them.

Mark Andrews, Ravens vs. NYG ($5700 DK, $7000 FD)
Lamar Jackson can look at Marquise Brown and then see James Bradberry toothily smiling back at him from the opposite side of the line of scrimmage. Lamar will quickly pivot away from him and target his already favored TE even more often. The Giants are middle of the road against the position, but they haven’t faced a lot of high-end competition. The ones that they have faced have beaten them badly.

Logan Thomas, Football Team vs. CAR ($4900 DK, $6000 FD)
Carolina has allowed the fifth-most receptions to the TE position. This includes allowing 50 yards and/or a TD to every primary TE (including Nick Vannett filling in for Noah Fant in a game he left early due to injury) they have faced since Week 6. Meanwhile, Logan Thomas has been force-fed by whoever Washington starts at QB. Over his last three games, Thomas has posted 28 catches for 242 yards and a TD on 32 targets.

Noah Fant, Broncos @ LAC ($4800 DK, $6200 FD)
The Chargers have allowed a league third-worst ten TE scores. Strangely enough, they haven’t given up a ton of receptions or yards to the position though. Noah Fant had a great Week 15 hauling in 8-68 to go along with his first TD grab since Week 2. He was peppered by Drew Lock for 11 targets in the game, but some of that was because his WRs were struggling to get open versus Buffalo’s cornerbacks. The line won’t be quite as big this week, but another score is in the cards.

DFS Sleepers

Evan Engram, Giants @ BAL ($3900 DK, $5300 FD) Perhaps the best way to target your offense against the Ravens’ defense is to attack with the TE position. On the season, Baltimore has allowed the eighth-most receptions to the position. This could add up to being a heavy target day for Evan Engram. He already leads the team in both targets and receptions, and he has seven or more targets in six of his last eight games. Drops have been a bit of a concern recently, but that may have more to do with Colt McCoy at QB. Daniel Jones is poised to return this week barring a late setback. This should only help Engram’s numbers. At $3.9K, it won’t take much for him to reach 3X.

Austin Hooper, Browns @ NYJ ($3500 DK, $5100 FD) Austin Hooper returned last week and immediately scored while hauling in five of six targets. It was the most usage Hooper had seen since Week 6. Now, Hooper gets to face the team that is allowing the most yards and the most TDs to the position. This includes allowing an average of 7.5-104-1.5 to the position over their last three games. Hooper will split some of the love with David Njoku and Harrison Bryant, but when all three have been healthy this year, it is Hooper that has led the pack.

[lawrence-newslette

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