With most regular fantasy leagues ending last weekend, Week 17 typically sees a spike in DFS play. The added casual players (many of whom have new money burning a hole in their pocket) combined with the larger player pool (only one non-main slate game) to choose from makes the big GPPs that much trickier. So pay close attention to the sleepers you may need to fit some studs into your lineup. Also, be aware that many teams may be resting players for part of or even the full game this week. Make sure that your FLEX players (and SuperFlex) players are in the afternoon games so that you can swap them out if their playing status is changed due to early game results.
Plus, As always continue to tune into the Dominator as we enter the playoffs. We will continue to break down all of the best DFS plays through Conference Championship week.
The Main Slate: My recommended DFS lineups
At DK: $6.3K for Kirk Cousins. $7.4K for Jonathan Taylor. $6.5K for Myles Gaskin. $7.4K for Adam Thielen. $4.2K for either Laviska Shenault or Jerry Jeudy. $4.2K for Mecole Hardman. $6K for George Kittle. $4.8K for Darrel Williams at FLEX. $2.8K for the Cardinals’ defense.
At FD: $7.7K for Cousins. $6.7K for Gaskin. $6.4K for J.K. Dobbins. $7.9K for Thielen. $7.3K for Brandin Cooks. $5.1K for Jeudy. $7.8K for Darren Waller. $7.3K for David Johnson at FLEX. $3.8K for the Cardinals’ defense.
At Fanball (SuperFlex – includes Sun Night): Cousins, Deshaun Watson at SF, Gaskin, Dobbins, Thielen, Cooks, Darius Slayton, Mike Gesicki, and Taylor at FLEX.
Weekly strategy – Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson are both good deals on DK, but both are a tad too high on FD. Tom Brady is the safest option price-wise on both sites, but he might not play the whole game. If you decide to go lower on the dollar rung, you will find Kirk Cousins and Philip Rivers both of whom make solid pivots. If you choose to punt the position consider Drew Lock, Mike Glennon, Daniel Jones, and CJ Beathard. Tua Tagovailoa may actually have the most upside among the punt options, but his leash will be short.
Fantasy Four Pack
Lamar Jackson, Ravens @ CIN ($8000 DK, $9000 FD)
Cincinnati held Lamar Jackson’s legs in check in their earlier meeting. That said, Jackson ran wild on the Bengals last year. Lamar also threw for two TDs in the earlier game. Cincy is playing for a better draft pick hopefully to pass block for Joe Burrow, so the effort to slow down Jackson won’t be there this week.
Tom Brady, Buccaneers vs. ATL ($7200 DK, $8400 FD)
Atlanta has allowed the second-most passing yards this year including 390 to Tom Brady just two weeks ago. Tom Brady may not play the whole game this week, but we saw what he did in just a half last week.
Deshaun Watson, Texans vs. TEN ($7700 DK, $8700 FD)
Tennessee has allowed the fifth-most passing yards and the second-most passing TDs this year. 335-4 of those numbers were accrued by Deshaun Watson back in Week 6. Houston has already said that Watson plans to play this week. If he does the matchup is very sweet, even if Tennessee chooses to bench their starters.
Kirk Cousins, Vikings @ DET ($6300 DK, $7700 FD)
Kirk Cousins has thrown for three TDs in five of his last eight games. This includes Week 9 versus Detroit. This should come as no surprise since Detroit has allowed the most passing TDs this year. Played indoors, this game has no weather concerns. The only possible concern is if the Vikings slough this game with nothing on the line. Still, with Dalvin Cook likely out, this is Kirk’s game to win or lose.
C.J. Beathard, 49ers vs. SEA ($5200 DK, $6600 FD) Seattle’s pass defense has improved over the second half of the year, but they still rank last overall in passing yards allowed. Enter C.J.Beathard, who is coming off a three-touchdown performance against Arizona last week. Beathard will be without his top-two WRs, but he has beastly TE, George Kittle back healthy. This stack may fly under the radar and would free up money to pay up for some of the pricey RBs. Also, consider Richie James in this stack. Remember what he did last time all of the other San Fran WRs were out.
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins @ BUF ($5100 DK, $6800 FD) With Ryan Fitzpatrick out due to CoVid, Tua Tagovailoa won’t have a short leash this week. Plus, Miami will be forced to play this game to win, while the game means nothing but playoff positioning to Buffalo. Playing in Buffalo weather is certainly a concern, but Tua doesn’t throw the ball more than 10 yards downfield anyway so I doubt wind will affect him much. He may also be forced to run the ball more and only two teams have allowed more QB rushing scores than Buffalo.
Weekly strategy – Alvin Kamara and Derrick Henry have great matchups, but Henry might not play the whole game and Alvin Kamara feels like a trap after his huge Week 16. David Montgomery is the safest high-priced option and he is considerably cheaper than both of them. There are four others I like at RB1: Jonathan Taylor, David Johnson, and Myles Gaskin. If I save enough elsewhere, I could easily see using two from that list. Melvin Gordon is the only other RB2 option I trust at his price (unless Alexander Mattison is cleared from the concussion protocol). If Mattison is a no-go, then Mike Boone is a must-start at FLEX. Darrel Williams, Zack Moss, and Malcolm Brown could also all have punt-FLEX value with increased roles this week.
Fantasy Four Pack
Alvin Kamara, Saints @ CAR ($9500 DK, $9400 FD)
Starting RBs versus the Panthers isn’t a new concept. Carolina has struggled against them for several years now. What concerns me here is that Alvin Kamara is coming off of a generational performance. At any price, he would seem to be chasing points. Plus, New Orleans still has Latavius Murray to potentially steal some of the thunder. I will have some exposure to him, but the likelihood that he produces even half of last week’s points is wishful thinking.
Derrick Henry, Titans @ HOU ($9400 DK, $10200 FD) Houston is allowing 187 combo yards per game to opposing RBs. This includes a 264-2 performance by Derrick Henry in Week 6. That is a typical QB’s passing line, not an RB’s total yardage line. That was the second consecutive 200+ yards performance by Henry against Houston. We could easily see a third-straight this week, IF, the Titans play their regulars for the full game. Their lot in the playoffs may be determined prior to their game starting, but with 2000 yards within reach, I see Henry getting some work. If Tennessee ends up needing this one, Henry becomes a must-start RB1. So, If you want to use him, put him in your FLEX slot to make sure you can swap him out easier at game time if need be.
David Montgomery, Bears vs. GB ($7700 DK, $8200 FD) Green Bay has allowed nearly 140 total yards per game to opposing RBs. David Montgomery just topped that figure with 143 yards against the Pack back in Week 12. Over the last four weeks, Montgomery has netted more yards than anyone else in football. In a must-win game, Chicago will give him as many touches as he can handle.
Jonathan Taylor, Colts vs. JAC ($7400 DK, $8400 FD) Jacksonville has allowed 194 total yards per game to opposing RBs over the last four weeks. Meanwhile, Jonathan Taylor still inexplicably is splitting touches in the Indy backfield. At least the TDs are falling in his lap. He has six in his last four games while Nyheim Hines has only one. This game has sneaky over possibilities. The higher the score, the more chances Taylor has to punch in a score.
Melvin Gordon, Broncos vs. LV ($5700 DK, $6800 FD) Las Vegas has allowed the third-most RB rushing TDs this year. This includes a rushing TD allowed to Phillip Lindsay back in Week 8. Lindsay is out for the year, so all 133 of the yards allowed to the pair that week are in play here. Melvin Gordon has produced mediocre lines all year, but he is always a threat to punch one in.
Mike Boone, Vikings @ DET ($4000 DK, $4600 FD) Dalvin Cook is likely out due to a death in the family. Alexander Mattison is currently in the concussion protocol. What could go wrong here? A similar situation played out at the end of last year (no Cook or Mattison). In the Week 16 fantasy championship week, Mike Boone laid a huge goose egg. Then of course, in Week 17, when no one trusted him enough to play him, Boone went off against the Bears. Detroit has allowed the most total TDs to the position, so a score will happen.
Weekly strategy –I don’t love the matchup, but Green Bay needs the win, so Davante Adams could see a shipload of targets this week. Chicago needs it too so Allen Robinson is also an option in a tough matchup as well. Tampa claims that all of their guys will play the whole game which puts Mike Evans and Chris Godwin into WR1 consideration against a much softer opponent. Still, the Vikings’ duo of Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson are the safest options in the WR1 range. For WR2, I love both Brandin Cooks and Keke Coutee. Coutee is obviously cheaper, making him an easier play. T.Y. Hilton and Marvin Jones are fun pivots if I don’t use one of the Texans. The obvious WR3 play is Mecole Hardman. This means that Demarcus Robinson is probably the guy you actually want to use to differentiate from the masses. Jamison Crowder, Jerry Jeudy, Darius Slayton, and the Jaguars’ WRs are my favorite pivots in this range. If you punt the position consider the likes of Josh Reynolds, Gabriel Davis, or Richie James.
Fantasy Four Pack
Davante Adams, Packers @ CHI ($9200 DK, $9300 FD)
Voting against the top WR in fantasy football is hard to do. Especially when he is facing a team that he has historically fared well against. Still, Chicago is one of the best in the league against the pass. Plus, much like Alvin Kamara, Davante Adams is coming off an elite performance. He will be over-owned and his high salary means that not only does he have to hit, but he also has to go off again. I like him for 10-100-1, but that is stretching for 3X on DK and falls short on FD. If he fails to lock up a second TD you are in trouble.
Calvin Ridley, Falcons @ TB ($8500 DK, $8700 FD)
Tampa is claiming that they will play their stars the whole game. Atlanta is claiming that they want to get Julio Jones back on the field. It is clear to me that these two teams just hate each other and want to go all out in what is basically a meaningless game. When Atlanta realizes that Julio isn’t going to play, Calvin Ridley will once again be pummelled with targets. Ridley has scored and/or topped 90 yards in all but two of his starts this season. Running against the Buccaneers is nearly impossible which means that Matt Ryan will go air raid here. This should guarantee Ridley an 8-100-1 line. The only thing that could slow him down is if Julio does magically return.
Adam Thielen, Vikings @ DET ($7400 DK, $7900 FD)
Dalvin Cook is not going to be active this week. Cook represents 34% of Minnesota’s total TDs this season. Adam Thielen is responsible for another 28% of those scores. So he is the member of the Vikings most likely to score this week regardless. Yes, the other weapons in the passing game (and Mike Boone) are in play, but I’m going to ride or die on the most likely to score. It helps that he is cheaper than Justin Jefferson. Detroit is second in yards allowed and fifth in TDs allowed to the position.
Allen Robinson, Bears vs. GB ($7700 DK, $7700 FD)
Allen Robinson has had his way with the Packers over their last three meetings. His largest successes this year have come in lockstep with Mitchell Trubisky starting at QB. This game is a must-win for both teams, I expect both Robinson and Davante Adams to be very busy this week. Many are going to pay more and chase Adams points from last week. This gets you exposure to the game for less money and lesser ownership.
Mecole Hardman, Chiefs vs. LAC ($4200 DK, $5300 FD) Mecole Hardman inherits the Tyreek Hill role in the Chiefs’ offense this week. At this price that is a real cheat code. Chad Henne is a solid QB, but he isn’t Patrick Mahomes. Still, the offensive gameplan won’t change much. Hardman will likely be highly owned, so to differentiate consider using Demarcus Robinson instead. Robinson is more expensive on DK, but actually cheaper on FD.
Jerry Jeudy, Broncos vs. LV ($4200 DK, $5100 FD) Jerry Jeudy saw an Aiyuk-ian target share last week. Unfortunately, Jeudy did next to nothing with all of those targets. It is clear that Drew Lock likes to throw in his direction. In their earlier meeting, Jeudy led the team in receiving yards and he was tied for the team lead in receptions. KJ Hamler had a couple more targets in that game, but Jeudy had almost as many targets last week as Hamler has had total since that Week 10 meeting.
Weekly strategy – There are a bunch of expensive TEs that i like this week. Darren Waller, George Kittle, Mark Andrews, and Robert Tonyan are all poised for big games. This is one of those weeks where Double-TE is definitely in play. Irv Smith, Dalton Schultz, and Dawson Knox are all in play for cheaper as are the Chiefs’ backups (I like Ricky Seals-Jones best among them). If the Titans rest their starters, Anthony Firkser could be a sneaky punt. In addition, it appears that Cleveland will get their WR corps back this week. If they suffer a setback, David Njoku or Harrison Bryant could be cheap options.
Fantasy Four Pack
Darren Waller, Raiders @ DEN ($7100 DK, $7800 FD)
Over the last four weeks, NOBODY has more receiving yards than Darren Waller (not Davante Adams, not Tyreek Hill, not Stefon Diggs, not Travis Kelce). He is averaging an absurd 8.5-134 over that stretch. Denver is decent against the position, but Waller is white-hot right now.
George Kittle, 49ers vs. SEA ($6000 DK, $6800 FD)
George Kittle chalks in at $1K less than Waller, but he may see a larger share of his team’s targets this week. Seattle’s pass defense is considerably worse than Denver’s, and target hog Brandon Aiyuk is out this week. We saw no rust last week. I expect nearly double the results here.
Mark Andrews, Ravens @ CIN ($5800 DK, $7200 FD)
Most weeks this matchup would get Mark Andrews the top seed at the position. Cincy is rotten against TEs. Plus, Andrews has had historical success against them. It is just that this week his price is on par with Kittle, who has an even better matchup. I’m also slightly concerned that Baltimore might run the ball 100 times in this game.
Robert Tonyan, Packers @ CHI ($5000 DK, $6300 FD)
Chicago has allowed the third-most TDs and the fifth-most receiving yards to the position. Meanwhile, only Travis Kelce has more tight end scores than Robert Tonyan. Tonyan scored in their earlier meeting as part of a run of five straight games with a TD. That string ended last week when Aaron Rodgers only threw the ball to Davante Adams. I expect a bounce-back game here, but know that his value is more likely to hit with the score.
Dawson Knox, Bills vs. MIA ($3000 DK, $4700 FD) Dawson Knox has seen an increase in usage recently. He may see an even greater increase this week as Cole Beasley is not likely to play. Knox failed to score last week, but he does have TDs in three of his last five games. If he scores here, he will already be nearly at 3X on DK.
Ricky Seals-Jones, Chiefs vs. LAC ($2900 DK, $4000 FD) Ricky Seals-Jones has zero catches this season. Still, he has 4x more catches in his career than Deon Yelder and Nick Keizer combined. He was also a low-end but still impact fantasy TE as recently as last season. The other two may be in the future but they haven’t shown up yet. Travis Kelce is likely to rest this week. This is definitely a shot in the dark, but I guarantee he will have low ownership.