Fantasy Football DFS Domination: Week 17

Fantasy Football DFS Domination: Week 17

DFS - Daily Fantasy Football player picks and tips

Fantasy Football DFS Domination: Week 17

By

With most regular fantasy leagues ending last weekend, Week 17 typically sees a spike in DFS play. The added casual players (many of whom have new money burning a hole in their pocket) combined with the larger player pool (only one non-main slate game) to choose from makes the big GPPs that much trickier. So pay close attention to the sleepers you may need to fit some studs into your lineup. Also, be aware that many teams may be resting players for part of or even the full game this week. Make sure that your FLEX players (and SuperFlex) players are in the afternoon games so that you can swap them out if their playing status is changed due to early game results.

Plus, As always continue to tune into the Dominator as we enter the playoffs. We will continue to break down all of the best DFS plays through Conference Championship week.

 

The Main Slate: My recommended DFS lineups

At DK: $6.3K for Kirk Cousins. $7.4K for Jonathan Taylor. $6.5K for Myles Gaskin. $7.4K for Adam Thielen. $4.2K for either Laviska Shenault or Jerry Jeudy. $4.2K for  Mecole Hardman. $6K for George Kittle. $4.8K for Darrel Williams at FLEX. $2.8K for the Cardinals’ defense.

At FD: $7.7K for Cousins. $6.7K for Gaskin. $6.4K for J.K. Dobbins. $7.9K for Thielen. $7.3K for Brandin Cooks. $5.1K for Jeudy. $7.8K for Darren Waller. $7.3K for David Johnson at FLEX. $3.8K for the Cardinals’ defense.

At Fanball (SuperFlex – includes Sun Night): Cousins, Deshaun Watson at SF, Gaskin, Dobbins, Thielen, Cooks, Darius Slayton, Mike Gesicki, and Taylor at FLEX.

 

DraftKings FanDuel
Lamar Jackson $8,000 $9,000
Deshaun Watson $7,700 $8,700
Josh Allen $7,600 $8,200
Kyler Murray $7,500 $7,800
Aaron Rodgers $7,400 $8,500
Russell Wilson $7,300 $7,500
Tom Brady $7,200 $8,400
Justin Herbert $7,100 $7,600
Ryan Tannehill $7,000 $8,200
Kirk Cousins $6,300 $7,700
Philip Rivers $6,000 $7,300
Drew Brees $5,900 $7,400
Matt Ryan $5,900 $7,500
Taysom Hill $5,800 $6,400
Derek Carr $5,700 $7,200
Andy Dalton $5,600 $7,100
Matthew Stafford $5,600 $7,200
Mitchell Trubisky $5,600 $7,300
Baker Mayfield $5,500 $7,000
Cam Newton $5,500 $7,300
Ryan Fitzpatrick $5,300 $6,800
Teddy Bridgewater $5,300 $6,900
C.J. Beathard $5,200 $6,600
Chad Henne $5,100 $6,400
Daniel Jones $5,100 $7,000
Tua Tagovailoa $5,100 $6,800
Brandon Allen $5,000 $6,800
Drew Lock $5,000 $6,800
Chase Daniel $4,900 $6,500
John Wolford $4,900 $6,500
Mike Glennon $4,900 $6,700
Sam Darnold $4,900 $6,600
Logan Woodside $4,300 $6,000
Mason Rudolph $4,300 $6,500

Quarterback

Weekly strategy – Lamar Jackson and  Deshaun Watson are both good deals on DK, but both are a tad too high on FD. Tom Brady is the safest option price-wise on both sites, but he might not play the whole game. If you decide to go lower on the dollar rung, you will find Kirk Cousins and Philip Rivers both of whom make solid pivots. If you choose to punt the position consider Drew Lock, Mike Glennon, Daniel Jones, and CJ Beathard. Tua Tagovailoa may actually have the most upside among the punt options, but his leash will be short.

Fantasy Four Pack

Lamar Jackson, Ravens @ CIN ($8000 DK, $9000 FD)
Cincinnati held Lamar Jackson’s legs in check in their earlier meeting. That said, Jackson ran wild on the Bengals last year. Lamar also threw for two TDs in the earlier game. Cincy is playing for a better draft pick hopefully to pass block for Joe Burrow, so the effort to slow down Jackson won’t be there this week.

Tom Brady, Buccaneers vs. ATL ($7200 DK, $8400 FD)
Atlanta has allowed the second-most passing yards this year including 390 to Tom Brady just two weeks ago. Tom Brady may not play the whole game this week, but we saw what he did in just a half last week.

Deshaun Watson, Texans vs. TEN ($7700 DK, $8700 FD)
Tennessee has allowed the fifth-most passing yards and the second-most passing TDs this year. 335-4 of those numbers were accrued by Deshaun Watson back in Week 6. Houston has already said that Watson plans to play this week. If he does the matchup is very sweet, even if Tennessee chooses to bench their starters.

Kirk Cousins, Vikings @ DET ($6300 DK, $7700 FD)
Kirk Cousins has thrown for three TDs in five of his last eight games. This includes Week 9 versus Detroit. This should come as no surprise since Detroit has allowed the most passing TDs this year. Played indoors, this game has no weather concerns. The only possible concern is if the Vikings slough this game with nothing on the line. Still, with Dalvin Cook likely out, this is Kirk’s game to win or lose.

 

DFS Sleepers

C.J. Beathard, 49ers vs. SEA ($5200 DK, $6600 FD) Seattle’s pass defense has improved over the second half of the year, but they still rank last overall in passing yards allowed. Enter C.J.Beathard, who is coming off a three-touchdown performance against Arizona last week. Beathard will be without his top-two WRs, but he has beastly TE, George Kittle back healthy. This stack may fly under the radar and would free up money to pay up for some of the pricey RBs. Also, consider Richie James in this stack. Remember what he did last time all of the other San Fran WRs were out.

Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins @ BUF ($5100 DK, $6800 FD) With Ryan Fitzpatrick out due to CoVid, Tua Tagovailoa won’t have a short leash this week. Plus, Miami will be forced to play this game to win, while the game means nothing but playoff positioning to Buffalo. Playing in Buffalo weather is certainly a concern, but Tua doesn’t throw the ball more than 10 yards downfield anyway so I doubt wind will affect him much. He may also be forced to run the ball more and only two teams have allowed more QB rushing scores than Buffalo.

 

DraftKings FanDuel
Alvin Kamara $9,500  $9,400
Derrick Henry $9,400 $10,200
David Montgomery $7,700 $8,200
Nick Chubb $7,600 $8,100
Austin Ekeler $7,500 $7,700
Jonathan Taylor $7,400 $8,400
Aaron Jones $7,100 $8,000
David Johnson $6,800 $7,300
J.K. Dobbins $6,700 $6,400
Myles Gaskin $6,500 $6,700
Ezekiel Elliott $6,400 $6,500
D’Andre Swift $6,300 $7,500
Mike Davis $6,300 $6,500
Chris Carson $6,200 $7,000
Josh Jacobs $6,200 $7,400
Alexander Mattison $6,100 $5,000
James Conner $6,000 $6,200
Jeff Wilson $6,000 $6,300
Kareem Hunt $5,900 $6,400
Ronald Jones $5,900 $6,600
Leonard Fournette $5,800 $6,600
Raheem Mostert $5,800 $6,100
Le’Veon Bell $5,700 $5,900
Melvin Gordon $5,700 $6,800
Latavius Murray $5,600 $5,500
Carlos Hyde $5,400 $5,200
Giovani Bernard $5,400 $6,200
Kenyan Drake $5,400 $6,200
Wayne Gallman $5,300 $5,700
Damien Harris $5,000 $5,800
AJ Dillon $4,900 $5,500
Gus Edwards $4,900 $6,100
Nyheim Hines $4,900 $6,000
Darrel Williams $4,800 $5,800
Samaje Perine $4,700 $5,700
Sony Michel $4,600 $5,800
Zack Moss $4,600 $5,400
Dare Ogunbowale $4,500 $5,600
Devin Singletary $4,500 $5,600
James White $4,500 $5,400
Darwin Thompson $4,400 $4,500
Ito Smith $4,300 $5,200
Malcolm Brown $4,300 $5,600
Ty Johnson $4,300 $5,000
Jerick McKinnon $4,200 $5,100
Adrian Peterson $4,000 $4,900
Darrynton Evans $4,000 $4,800
Jeremy McNichols $4,000 $4,800
Kalen Ballage $4,000 $5,300
Mike Boone $4,000 $4,600
Rodney Smith $4,000 $4,900

Running Back

Weekly strategy – Alvin Kamara and Derrick Henry have great matchups, but Henry might not play the whole game and Alvin Kamara feels like a trap after his huge Week 16. David Montgomery is the safest high-priced option and he is considerably cheaper than both of them. There are four others I like at RB1: Jonathan Taylor, David Johnson, and Myles Gaskin. If I save enough elsewhere, I could easily see using two from that list. Melvin Gordon is the only other RB2 option I trust at his price (unless Alexander Mattison is cleared from the concussion protocol). If Mattison is a no-go, then Mike Boone is a must-start at FLEX. Darrel Williams, Zack Moss, and Malcolm Brown could also all have punt-FLEX value with increased roles this week.

 

Fantasy Four Pack

Alvin Kamara, Saints @ CAR ($9500 DK, $9400 FD)
Starting RBs versus the Panthers isn’t a new concept. Carolina has struggled against them for several years now. What concerns me here is that Alvin Kamara is coming off of a generational performance. At any price, he would seem to be chasing points. Plus, New Orleans still has Latavius Murray to potentially steal some of the thunder. I will have some exposure to him, but the likelihood that he produces even half of last week’s points is wishful thinking.

Derrick Henry, Titans @ HOU ($9400 DK, $10200 FD) Houston is allowing 187 combo yards per game to opposing RBs. This includes a 264-2 performance by Derrick Henry in Week 6. That is a typical QB’s passing line, not an RB’s total yardage line. That was the second consecutive 200+ yards performance by Henry against Houston. We could easily see a third-straight this week, IF, the Titans play their regulars for the full game. Their lot in the playoffs may be determined prior to their game starting, but with 2000 yards within reach, I see Henry getting some work. If Tennessee ends up needing this one, Henry becomes a must-start RB1. So, If you want to use him, put him in your FLEX slot to make sure you can swap him out easier at game time if need be.

David Montgomery, Bears vs. GB ($7700 DK, $8200 FD) Green Bay has allowed nearly 140 total yards per game to opposing RBs. David Montgomery just topped that figure with 143 yards against the Pack back in Week 12. Over the last four weeks, Montgomery has netted more yards than anyone else in football. In a must-win game, Chicago will give him as many touches as he can handle.

Jonathan Taylor, Colts vs. JAC ($7400 DK, $8400 FD) Jacksonville has allowed 194 total yards per game to opposing RBs over the last four weeks. Meanwhile, Jonathan Taylor still inexplicably is splitting touches in the Indy backfield. At least the TDs are falling in his lap. He has six in his last four games while Nyheim Hines has only one. This game has sneaky over possibilities. The higher the score, the more chances Taylor has to punch in a score.

DFS Sleepers

Melvin Gordon, Broncos vs. LV ($5700 DK, $6800 FD) Las Vegas has allowed the third-most RB rushing TDs this year. This includes a rushing TD allowed to Phillip Lindsay back in Week 8. Lindsay is out for the year, so all 133 of the yards allowed to the pair that week are in play here. Melvin Gordon has produced mediocre lines all year, but he is always a threat to punch one in.

Mike Boone, Vikings @ DET ($4000 DK, $4600 FD) Dalvin Cook is likely out due to a death in the family. Alexander Mattison is currently in the concussion protocol. What could go wrong here? A similar situation played out at the end of last year (no Cook or Mattison). In the Week 16 fantasy championship week, Mike Boone laid a huge goose egg. Then of course, in Week 17, when no one trusted him enough to play him, Boone went off against the Bears. Detroit has allowed the most total TDs to the position, so a score will happen.

 

DraftKings FanDuel
Davante Adams $9,200 $9,300
Calvin Ridley $8,500 $8,700
Tyreek Hill $8,300 $8,900
DeAndre Hopkins $7,900 $8,200
Allen Robinson $7,700 $7,700
Justin Jefferson $7,600 $8,000
Mike Evans $7,500 $8,100
Adam Thielen $7,400 $7,900
DK Metcalf $7,300 $7,600
A.J. Brown $7,200 $8,400
Keenan Allen $7,100 $7,800
Julio Jones $7,000 $7,500
Brandin Cooks $6,900 $7,300
Diontae Johnson $6,700 $6,800
Chris Godwin $6,600 $7,400
Jarvis Landry $6,500 $6,700
JuJu Smith-Schuster $6,400 $6,800
Robert Woods $6,300 $6,800
Corey Davis $6,200 $7,200
Marquise Brown $5,900 $6,000
Amari Cooper $5,800 $6,700
T.Y. Hilton $5,800 $6,300
Tyler Lockett $5,800 $6,500
Chase Claypool $5,700 $6,000
DJ Moore $5,700 $6,900
Keke Coutee $5,600 $5,700
Robby Anderson $5,600 $6,600
Antonio Brown $5,500 $6,000
Emmanuel Sanders $5,500 $6,200
Nelson Agholor $5,400 $5,800
Curtis Samuel $5,300 $6,100
DeVante Parker $5,300 $6,100
CeeDee Lamb $5,200 $6,100
Sterling Shepard $5,200 $5,500
Marvin Jones $5,100 $6,100
Russell Gage $5,100 $5,700
Sammy Watkins $5,100 $5,200
Jakobi Meyers $5,000 $5,600
Jamison Crowder $5,000 $6,400
Michael Gallup $5,000 $6,200
Mike Williams $5,000 $5,900
Tee Higgins $5,000 $6,100
DJ Chark $4,900 $6,000
Tyler Boyd $4,900 $5,800
Demarcus Robinson $4,800 $5,200
Rashard Higgins $4,500 $5,600
Kendrick Bourne $4,300 $4,900
Allen Lazard $4,200 $5,500
Christian Kirk $4,200 $5,300
Jerry Jeudy $4,200 $5,100
Laviska Shenault $4,200 $5,500
Mecole Hardman $4,200 $5,300
Zach Pascal $4,200 $5,400
Chad Hansen $4,100 $5,200
Darius Slayton $4,100 $5,000
Darnell Mooney $4,100 $5,100
Michael Pittman $4,100 $5,300
Tim Patrick $4,000 $5,300
Tyron Johnson $4,000 $5,400
A.J. Green $3,900 $5,300
Byron Pringle $3,900 $4,900
Danny Amendola $3,900 $5,000
Hunter Renfrow $3,900 $5,000
Tre’Quan Smith $3,900 $5,000
Willie Snead $3,800 $5,000
Gabriel Davis $3,600 $5,200
Henry Ruggs $3,600 $5,000
Marquez Valdes-Scantling $3,600 $5,300
Donovan Peoples-Jones $3,500 $5,100
James Washington $3,500 $5,200
Larry Fitzgerald $3,500 $4,800
Lynn Bowden $3,500 $4,900
Damiere Byrd $3,400 $5,300
Jalen Guyton $3,400 $5,300
Keelan Cole $3,400 $5,100
Alex Erickson $3,300 $4,800
Anthony Miller $3,300 $4,700
Braxton Berrios $3,300 $5,100
Breshad Perriman $3,200 $5,200
Josh Reynolds $3,200 $4,900
KJ Hamler $3,200 $5,100
Mack Hollins $3,200 $4,800
Marquez Callaway $3,200 $5,000
Marvin Hall $3,200 $5,000
Dez Bryant $3,100 $5,200
Golden Tate $3,100 $4,800
N’Keal Harry $3,100 $5,400
Richie James $3,100 $4,600
Austin Mack $3,000 $4,500
Denzel Mims $3,000 $4,800
Ja’Marcus Bradley $3,000 $4,800
Kalif Raymond $3,000 $4,500
Mohamed Sanu $3,000 $4,700
Quintez Cephus $3,000 $4,700

Wide Receiver

Weekly strategy –I don’t love the matchup, but Green Bay needs the win, so Davante Adams could see a shipload of targets this week. Chicago needs it too so Allen Robinson is also an option in a tough matchup as well. Tampa claims that all of their guys will play the whole game which puts Mike Evans and Chris Godwin into WR1 consideration against a much softer opponent. Still, the Vikings’ duo of Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson are the safest options in the WR1 range. For WR2, I love both Brandin Cooks and Keke Coutee. Coutee is obviously cheaper, making him an easier play. T.Y. Hilton and Marvin Jones are fun pivots if I don’t use one of the Texans. The obvious WR3 play is Mecole Hardman. This means that Demarcus Robinson is probably the guy you actually want to use to differentiate from the masses. Jamison Crowder, Jerry Jeudy, Darius Slayton, and the Jaguars’ WRs are my favorite pivots in this range. If you punt the position consider the likes of Josh Reynolds, Gabriel Davis, or Richie James.

 

Fantasy Four Pack

Davante Adams, Packers @ CHI ($9200 DK, $9300 FD)
Voting against the top WR in fantasy football is hard to do. Especially when he is facing a team that he has historically fared well against. Still, Chicago is one of the best in the league against the pass. Plus, much like Alvin Kamara, Davante Adams is coming off an elite performance. He will be over-owned and his high salary means that not only does he have to hit, but he also has to go off again. I like him for 10-100-1, but that is stretching for 3X on DK and falls short on FD. If he fails to lock up a second TD you are in trouble.

Calvin Ridley, Falcons @ TB ($8500 DK, $8700 FD)
Tampa is claiming that they will play their stars the whole game. Atlanta is claiming that they want to get Julio Jones back on the field. It is clear to me that these two teams just hate each other and want to go all out in what is basically a meaningless game. When Atlanta realizes that Julio isn’t going to play, Calvin Ridley will once again be pummelled with targets. Ridley has scored and/or topped 90 yards in all but two of his starts this season. Running against the Buccaneers is nearly impossible which means that Matt Ryan will go air raid here. This should guarantee Ridley an 8-100-1 line. The only thing that could slow him down is if Julio does magically return.

Adam Thielen, Vikings @ DET ($7400 DK, $7900 FD)
Dalvin Cook is not going to be active this week. Cook represents 34% of Minnesota’s total TDs this season. Adam Thielen is responsible for another 28% of those scores. So he is the member of the Vikings most likely to score this week regardless. Yes, the other weapons in the passing game (and Mike Boone) are in play, but I’m going to ride or die on the most likely to score. It helps that he is cheaper than Justin Jefferson. Detroit is second in yards allowed and fifth in TDs allowed to the position.

Allen Robinson, Bears vs. GB ($7700 DK, $7700 FD)
Allen Robinson has had his way with the Packers over their last three meetings. His largest successes this year have come in lockstep with Mitchell Trubisky starting at QB. This game is a must-win for both teams, I expect both Robinson and Davante Adams to be very busy this week. Many are going to pay more and chase Adams points from last week. This gets you exposure to the game for less money and lesser ownership.

 

DFS Sleepers

Mecole Hardman, Chiefs vs. LAC ($4200 DK, $5300 FD) Mecole Hardman inherits the Tyreek Hill role in the Chiefs’ offense this week. At this price that is a real cheat code. Chad Henne is a solid QB, but he isn’t Patrick Mahomes. Still, the offensive gameplan won’t change much. Hardman will likely be highly owned, so to differentiate consider using Demarcus Robinson instead. Robinson is more expensive on DK, but actually cheaper on FD.

Jerry Jeudy, Broncos vs. LV ($4200 DK, $5100 FD) Jerry Jeudy saw an Aiyuk-ian target share last week. Unfortunately, Jeudy did next to nothing with all of those targets. It is clear that Drew Lock likes to throw in his direction. In their earlier meeting, Jeudy led the team in receiving yards and he was tied for the team lead in receptions. KJ Hamler had a couple more targets in that game, but Jeudy had almost as many targets last week as Hamler has had total since that Week 10 meeting.

 

DraftKings FanDuel
Travis Kelce $8,600 $8,800
Darren Waller $7,100 $7,800
George Kittle $6,000 $6,800
Mark Andrews $5,800 $7,200
Robert Tonyan $5,000 $6,300
Jared Cook $4,700 $5,700
T.J. Hockenson $4,600 $5,800
Rob Gronkowski $4,500 $6,100
Noah Fant $4,400 $5,700
Hunter Henry $4,300 $6,000
Mike Gesicki $4,200 $5,900
Eric Ebron $4,000 $5,500
Irv Smith $3,900 $5,600
Austin Hooper $3,800 $5,200
Jonnu Smith $3,800 $5,300
Evan Engram $3,700 $5,400
Hayden Hurst $3,700 $5,500
Jimmy Graham $3,600 $5,400
Tyler Higbee $3,500 $5,400
Jordan Akins $3,300 $5,000
Nick Keizer $3,200 $4,500
Dan Arnold $3,100 $4,900
Deon Yelder $3,100 $4,000
Drew Sample $3,100 $4,600
Cole Kmet $3,000 $5,000
Dalton Schultz $3,000 $5,100
Dawson Knox $3,000 $4,700
Jack Doyle $3,000 $4,500
Jacob Hollister $3,000 $4,900
Darren Fells $2,900 $4,600
Donald Parham $2,900 $4,200
Ricky Seals-Jones $2,900 $4,000
Anthony Firkser $2,800 $4,300
Trey Burton $2,800 $4,900
Tyler Eifert $2,800 $4,300
Gerald Everett $2,700 $4,500
Harrison Bryant $2,700 $4,800
David Njoku $2,600 $4,700

Tight End

Weekly strategy – There are a bunch of expensive TEs that i like this week. Darren Waller, George Kittle, Mark Andrews, and Robert Tonyan are all poised for big games. This is one of those weeks where Double-TE is definitely in play. Irv Smith, Dalton Schultz, and Dawson Knox are all in play for cheaper as are the Chiefs’ backups (I like Ricky Seals-Jones best among them). If the Titans rest their starters, Anthony Firkser could be a sneaky punt. In addition, it appears that Cleveland will get their WR corps back this week. If they suffer a setback, David Njoku or Harrison Bryant could be cheap options.

 

Fantasy Four Pack

Darren Waller, Raiders @ DEN ($7100 DK, $7800 FD)
Over the last four weeks, NOBODY has more receiving yards than Darren Waller (not Davante Adams, not Tyreek Hill, not Stefon Diggs, not Travis Kelce). He is averaging an absurd 8.5-134 over that stretch. Denver is decent against the position, but Waller is white-hot right now.

George Kittle, 49ers vs. SEA ($6000 DK, $6800 FD)
George Kittle chalks in at $1K less than Waller, but he may see a larger share of his team’s targets this week. Seattle’s pass defense is considerably worse than Denver’s, and target hog Brandon Aiyuk is out this week. We saw no rust last week. I expect nearly double the results here.

Mark Andrews, Ravens @ CIN ($5800 DK, $7200 FD)
Most weeks this matchup would get Mark Andrews the top seed at the position. Cincy is rotten against TEs. Plus, Andrews has had historical success against them. It is just that this week his price is on par with Kittle, who has an even better matchup. I’m also slightly concerned that Baltimore might run the ball 100 times in this game.

Robert Tonyan, Packers @ CHI ($5000 DK, $6300 FD)
Chicago has allowed the third-most TDs and the fifth-most receiving yards to the position. Meanwhile, only Travis Kelce has more tight end scores than Robert Tonyan. Tonyan scored in their earlier meeting as part of a run of five straight games with a TD. That string ended last week when Aaron Rodgers only threw the ball to Davante Adams. I expect a bounce-back game here, but know that his value is more likely to hit with the score.

 

DFS Sleepers

Dawson Knox, Bills vs. MIA ($3000 DK, $4700 FD) Dawson Knox has seen an increase in usage recently. He may see an even greater increase this week as Cole Beasley is not likely to play. Knox failed to score last week, but he does have TDs in three of his last five games. If he scores here, he will already be nearly at 3X on DK.

Ricky Seals-Jones, Chiefs vs. LAC ($2900 DK, $4000 FD) Ricky Seals-Jones has zero catches this season. Still, he has 4x more catches in his career than Deon Yelder and Nick Keizer combined. He was also a low-end but still impact fantasy TE as recently as last season. The other two may be in the future but they haven’t shown up yet. Travis Kelce is likely to rest this week. This is definitely a shot in the dark, but I guarantee he will have low ownership.

[lawrence-newslette

THE LATEST

More Huddle
Home