We’re starting to get a feel for how teams are shaking out in the 2021 edition of the NFL. Injuries at key positions and early success or failure are making prop bets a proposition that gets more qualified over time.
These are five prop bets that you can take to the pay window with confidence, because they make too much sense.
There’s Something About Terry
There aren’t a lot of people who think the Washington Football Team Without a Name is going to slap down the Buffalo Bills in their house. When it comes to a bet on wide receiver Terry McLaurin, those setting the odds know what they’re doing. Washington is likely to be behind in for much, if not all, of this game. His reception Over/Under (5.5 receptions at -164 Over, +125 Under) is begging to bet the Under. Typically, I don’t like giving up that much to win less. That said, Take the Over.
Chief of Staff
There is a belief that the Bucs-Rams game is going to be shootout. As such Matthew Stafford’s passing yardage Over/Under is markedly high (310.5 yards at -114 Over, -114 Under). That’s the kind of number you expect to see from a team winning by 14 or losing by 14. The Rams aren’t in either category against Tampa Bay. This is going to be treated like a playoff game because a rematch is likely in January. Both teams are going to play it tight to the vest, and it should be noted that defensive players get played, too – and the Bucs have enough of them. Take the Under.
In the Nick of Time
Let’s see if we have this right. Jarvis Landry is out. OBJ is a hopeful question mark. And Nick Chubb has a modest rushing number against Chicago at home (73.5 yards at -114 Over, -114 Under). The Browns are going to count on its run game to win, and 20 carries should be the minimum expected from Chubb in this one. The game is done at 3:45, and Chubb has 20-plus carries. Take the Over.
The Baltimore Ravens get the Detroit Lions this week and quarterback Lamar Jackson has a fat rushing number (75.5 yards at -114 Over and -114 Under). There are legitimate running backs that have that number. By all accounts, the Ravens should dominate the Lions, who don’t have the pass rushers to force Jackson to bail out of the pocket and do his magic. Against this opponent, he should be able to hand the ball off to others (and throw it) without being expected to be the primary rusher. Take the Under.
The Packers defense has had its share of issues getting off the field, especially against offenses trying to move the chains. George Kittle should be expected to catch eight passes. Will that be expected to hit his number (60.5 yards at -115 Over, -112 Under)? I’ll jump on board. Take the Over.
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