Betting the NFL Line: Week 5

Betting the NFL Line: Week 5

General Fantasy Football Analysis, Tips, Strategy and Advice

Betting the NFL Line: Week 5


In the last week before the byes kick in for the next nine weeks and the number of games becomes more limited, there are some interesting matchups to keep an eye on.

For the second straight week, the teams from the NFC West butt heads as the Los Angeles Rams (3-1) and Seattle Seahawks (2-2) get the party started on Thursday and the San Francisco 49ers (2-2) heading to Arizona (4-0) to try to tighten up the division.

The week ends with another potential instant classic on Sunday night when Buffalo (3-1) heads into Kansas City (2-2) looking to put the Chiefs behind the 8-ball with the chance to hand them another key AFC loss, which would make them 1-3 in the conference. Enjoy 16 games in a week while it’s here, because after this week, we won’t see it again until the weekend before Christmas.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Wednesday, Oct. 6, at 9:30 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.

Los Angeles Rams (-135) at Seattle Seahawks (+110)

Under ordinary circumstances, taking the Seahawks as a home dog in front of the “12th Man” would be a no-brainer. The Rams are a 2.5-point favorite (Los Angeles -110, Seattle -110). However, Los Angeles is coming off a humbling loss to the Cardinals and will have gone through a rough week of practice to prevent a repeat. Seattle will keep it close, but a 2.5-point spread isn’t difficult for any winning team to cover. Take the Rams and lay the 2.5 points (-110).

New York Jets (+140) vs. Atlanta Falcons (-175)

London may not be thrilled that this is the first NFL game to be played in their county since the pandemic began, but it’s something. The Over/Under on this one is 46.5 points (Over -108, Under -112). For as bad as they’ve been much of the season, the Jets haven’t allowed more than 26 points in any game, and there’s little reason to think the Jets can score more than 20, which would be required to hit the Over on this line. Take the Under (-112).

Philadelphia Eagles (+155) at Carolina Panthers (-190)

The Eagles have lost three straight and the Panthers have wins over the Jets, Saints and Texans – none of whom should be in sniffing distance of the playoffs. The key here is Christian McCaffrey. He was back at practice Wednesday, which is a huge relief for Panthers fans. Carolina is favored by 3.5 points (Philadelphia -112, Carolina -108). With the addition of Stephon Gilmore and the potential for McCaffrey being back, this could be a statement game. Take the Panthers and lay the 3.5 points (-108).

Miami Dolphins (+380) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-540)

The Bucs have been pushed hard the last two games, but the simple truth is they are a deep team on both sides of the ball that should be able to manhandle a younger, less talented Dolphins squad. After being kept out of the end zone last week, Tom Brady is due to go nuts again and throw 45 times. The Bucs are favored by 9.5 points (Miami -102, Tampa Bay -122). That’s a big number, but not big enough. Take Tampa Bay and lay the 9.5 points (-122).

New England Patriots (-450) at Houston Texans (+330)

Last week, the Patriots gave Tampa Bay all they wanted and now they face the most mismanaged franchise in the league. Houston has scored a total of nine points in their last two games, and the Patriots are 7.5-point favorites (New England -115, Houston -107). Mac Jones impressed a lot of people last week. His bandwagon may start taking on passengers this week. Take the Patriots and lay the 7.5 points (-115).

New Orleans Saints (-135) at Washington Football Team (+110)

The Saints look like world-beaters one week and bums the next, while Washington’s defense has been exposed this season. The Over/Under on this game is 43.5 points Over -103, Under -112). In the last three games, Washington games have hit 59 or more in all three. New Orleans has proved it can put up crooked numbers often, too. This point seems too low to ignore. Take the Over (-103).

Detroit Lions (+300) at Minnesota Vikings (-400)

The teams are a combined 1-7, but Minnesota is a surprisingly prohibitive favorite at 8.5 points (Detroit -112, Minnesota -108). There’s a reason. Kirk Cousins is 6-0 against the Lions, and the margin of victory has been 2, 14, 13, 12, 18 and 16). After seeing that, I’m willing to lay those points, because teams beating down one team so consistently isn’t a fluke. Take Minnesota and lay the 8.5 points (-108).

Denver Broncos (-103) at Pittsburgh Steelers (-117)

It’s a sign of the times that vaunted Steelers are only a 1.5-point favorite at home (Denver -112, Pittsburgh -108). The Steelers have a lot of veteran leaders and they tend to pick themselves up. They started their season with a Murderer’s Row of Buffalo, Las Vegas, Cincinnati and Green Bay. Denver is good but may be the weakest roster of the five teams the Steelers have faced. For maybe the last time, if they get can’t score 20 points again, take the Steelers and lay the 1.5 points (-108).

Green Bay Packers (-165) at Cincinnati Bengals (+133)

The Packers are on a roll, winning three straight, but there’s something about the Bengals that get your attention. They’re 3.5-point home underdogs (Green Bay +100, Cincinnati -125). This has the classic “trap game” smell to it. I haven’t talked myself into taking the Bengals on the Moneyline, but I am willing to take the Bengals plus 3.5 points (-125).

Tennessee Titans (-205) at Jacksonville Jaguars (+165)

The Titans were without their top two wide receivers last week and lost to the hapless Jets. Somebody has to pay for that. It will be Jacksonville. The Titans are only a 4.5-point favorite (-107 Tennessee, -115 Jacksonville). The Titans will impose their will in this one – with or without Julio and A.J. Take the Titans and lay the 4.5 points (-107).

Chicago Bears (+190) at Las Vegas Raiders (-240)

The Bears look hopeless on offense at times, and the Raiders are coming off a short week. Las Vegas is favored by 4.5 points (Chicago -107, Las Vegas -115). While the Bears defense will do what it can to keep things close, critical mistakes on offense will be the difference for Chicago. The Raiders don’t take a ton of risks on offense and that should be the critical difference. Take the Raiders and lay the 4.5 points (-115).

Cleveland Browns (+102) at Los Angeles Chargers (-125)

A classic matchup of a team that can dominate with the run and the other ready to throw on every down, if necessary. Here’s where the rub comes with an Over/Under of 46.5 points (-117 Over, -103 Under). If Cleveland opens a 10-point lead, the Chargers will keep throwing. If L.A. opens a 10-point lead, both teams will keep throwing. This has the hallmarks of a 31-27 type, which blows out the point to beat. Take the Over (-117).

San Francisco 49ers (+190) at Arizona Cardinals (-240)

If the 49ers were at 100 percent offensively, the Cardinals wouldn’t be favored by 5.5 points (-110 for both teams). Only one of their four wins has been by less than 12 points. While 5.5 seems like a little too much to give up, with Trey Lance likely to make his starting debut and a run game that has been gutted by injury, this isn’t the time to face a defense hitting its stride. Take the Cardinals and lay the 5.5 points.

New York Giants (+230) at Dallas Cowboys (-300)

Neither defense has proven it can consistently stop anyone. This one has the making of an up-tempo, back-and-forth game that the Cowboys win, but the Giants keep themselves within reach in the second half. The Over/Under is 52.5 points (Over -112, Under -108). The Cowboys defense isn’t good, and the Giants will likely lose by double digits, but they’ll do their part. Take the Over (-112).

Buffalo Bills (+120) at Kansas City Chiefs (-145)

Kansas City is already in sole possession of last place in the AFC West. The Over/Under is a gigantic 56.5 points (-110 for both). There are three things to consider on this bet. Can Buffalo do its part? In their last three games, the Bills have scored 118 points. Check. Does Kansas City’s defense give up too many points? In the four games opponents have scored 29, 36, 30 and 30 points. Check. Is Kansas City’s offense capable of putting up points? … 134 and counting to date. Check. The 56.5 Over/Under is a huge number that will require almost a point per minute. But this one has the looks and smell of game where second team to 35 loses. Take the Over (-110).

Indianapolis Colts (+250) at Baltimore Ravens (-320)

The start to Indy’s season has been brutal (the Seahawks, Rams, Titans and Dolphins). They saved their season with a much-needed road win at Miami last week, but now have to travel to Baltimore. The Over/Under on this one is 45.5 points (Over -108, Under -112). The Ravens have gone under that considerably the last two games (36 vs. Detroit and 30 vs. Denver). The Colts have been under this number in three of four games. While they’ll probably light up the Monday night sky after that buildup, take the Under (-112).

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