It’s Week 6 and the NFL is flying high. However, this week, we’re leaning on the “Under” of the “Over/Under.” When you’re playing matchups you go with the best available options, given injuries play a key, but quiet, role in heading to the pay window.
The World According to Jim
Once again, NFL fans are forced to watch Sunday morning football with Jacksonville Jaguars involvement from London. However, James Robinson is stepping into a good spot. His Over/Under total is modest (73.5 yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). Four running backs have hit more than 80 yards – most well more – and that list includes Damien Harris, Peyton Barber and Devin Singletary. J-Rob can’t hit that? Take the Over (-114).
Cut to the Chase
The Detroit Lions have allowed five 100-yard receivers in five games, but all of them have been the grinders who catch seven or eight passes against the lesser defenders. Cincinnati’s Ja’Marr Chase has made a name for himself as a home run hitter, not a 7-8 catch guy. His Over/Under is the highest on the team (75.5 receiving yards at -114 for both). This will be the game that Tyler Boyd or Tee Higgins owners point to as draft justification. Chase may get his deep-ball touchdown, but he will get doubled more times than not. Take the Under (-114).
Mr. Rodgers’ Neighborhood
Aaron Rodgers has what appears to be an easily reachable Over/Under (259.5 passing yards and -114 for both both). However, while the Chicago Bears offense has been weak and Rodgers gets his mail at Soldier Field (19-2 in his last 21 games), too many things make that number look like a trap. In their last four games, the Bears held Joe Burrow, Baker Mayfield and Derek Carr well under that number. If the Packers get a big lead early, they will take the air out of the ball. I’m never happy about betting against Rodgers ripping the Bears apart (he had eight TDs in two games last year), not this time. Take the Under (-114).
Too Many Cooks
Who would have ever guessed two of the Prop Bet Payday picks would be coming from the AFC South with the two rattiest teams in the league?! Houston’s Brandin Cooks is by far the dominant receiver on the Texans. So much so, Bill Belichick chose to freeze him out last week. His Over/Under against the Colts defense seems suspicious (68.5 receiving yards at -114 for the Over and Under). To date this season, Indy has allowed four 100-yard receivers and they’re the guys you would expect. The Colts should win this one, so Houston will be throwing and why wouldn’t they throw to their main guy? Take the Over (-114).
Keenan and Kelce
The Over/Under for receptions is always a dicey pick. Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce has rewritten the stat sheet for all tight ends moving forward. As a result, his Over/Under is absurd (7.5 receptions at +110 Over, -143 Under). While he is capable of hitting the Over in every game he plays, he got his bell rung badly last week, and asking him to catch eight passes seems a little too steep a challenge. Take the Under (-143).
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