This week will be the fewest games available (13), because six teams are on their bye week. But fear not. We’ve drilled the land and figured some picks to help take you the pay window.
The Facin’ Mixon Line
The Cincinnati Bengals are preparing for their biggest game in years when they travel to take on the Baltimore Ravens in a statement game for the Bengals. Joe Mixon has been part of that ascent this season and is averaging 18.5 carries a game. The rare air this season. He has a shockingly low rushing yardage Over/Under (60.5 yards at -114 for both Over and Under). Mixon has beaten that number in five of six games, and the Ravens are likely going to try to play their run-heavy game back at them. If Mixon has an average day of 18-19 carries, this shouldn’t be a problem. Take the Over (-114).
Play It Again, Sam
It isn’t too often that bettors went to climb onto the Sam Darnold bandwagon. Believe it not, he has posted three 300-yard games this season, but his last two against the pressure brought by the Eagles and Vikings led to a ton of incompletions. He’s playing a collapsed Giants defense and has a passing yardage Over/Under that seems way too low (232.5 yards at -114 for both). Without Christian McCaffrey, this offense has had to learn on the fly without him. The Panthers started 3-0 and have lost three straight. Darnold gets his chance to shine and should be able to hit 250, because he will have the ball too often not to. Take the Over (-114).
I Can See for Miles and Miles
Few fantasy players have been more disappointing than Eagles running back Miles Sanders. The worst part it has been by design. Through six games, Sanders is averaging an impressive 4.7 yards a carry. The problem is that he is averaging less than 10 carries a game. His Over/Under for rushing yards doesn’t line up with that (63.5 yards at -114 for both). While it’s possible he could have a 15-carry game against the Las Vegas Raiders, if he is anywhere close to his average, he will need to break a couple chain-moving runs to hit this number, because that’s how the Eagles play this season. Take the Under (-114).
It Ain’t Easy Being Green
The Arizona Cardinals share the wealth in the passing game, but one player who still seems to be flying under the radar is wide receiver A.J. Green. His Over/Under for receiving yards is low compared to his recent production (39.5 yards at -115 Over, -112 Under). There is one stat to keep in mind with Green. His opportunities are incredibly consistent. He has been targeted six times in five of six games. All he needs to hit that number is likely four receptions or one downfield catch and a couple of slant passes. Take the Over (-115).
If I Could Be Like Mike
The Bucs offense is capable of big things every week. The biggest issue is the only player likely guaranteed for posting big numbers is Tom Brady. Other players fantasy production is always present but not always consistent. The reception Over/Under for Mike Evans is tantalizingly low (4.5 receptions at -135 Over, +105 Under). The implication is clear – the oddsmakers believe you have to invest heavier than normal to get a return. Any time someone will give me Evans — with Antonio Brown ruled out, no less — and fewer than five receptions at home against an inferior team, I say, “Yes, please!” Take the Over (-135).
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