There are some weeks when you want to play to a theme. This week, I’m putting all my eggs in Over basket when betting the Over/Under. Some bettors prefer finding prop bets that seem too high because a lot of factors can come into play to hit the Under. However, we’ve found some matchups that look like they’ll send you to the pay window.
So far this season, the Detroit Lions have allowed seven receivers to pile up 97 receiving yards or more. This week, they face flashy rookie DeVonta Smith and the Philadelphia Eagles. Smith is by far the most targeted receiver with the Eagles, who love to pass a lot. He has a relatively modest Over/Under (60.5 receiving yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). Detroit is still looking for its first win of the season, and the Eagles don’t want to be the team to provide it. Look for Philly to come out throwing as they typically do and Smith being in the middle of all of it. Take the Over.
The New York Jets have allowed 90 or more rushing yards to every team they’ve faced this season, which is good news for Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon. Coming off a game in which the Bengals got so far ahead early, Mixon was rested in the second half. This week, he doesn’t have an ugly Over/Under (76.5 rushing yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). The Bengals could blow out the Jets, but Mixon should get more than 15 carries. If he gets that sort of volume – he has 16 or more carries in five of seven games – he should hit the point. Take the Over.
Pittman the Hitman
Michael Pittman Jr. has emerged as the clear-cut, go-to receiver for Carson Wentz in Indianapolis and has almost 100 more receiving yards than the next two receivers combined. He has a reasonable Over/Under (61.5 receiving yards at -114 for both). The Tennessee Titans have dominated the division, but have allowed seven receivers to top 80 receiving yards, and Pittman has earned the respect to become the eighth. Take the Over.
It’s hard to ever bet against Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen when prop numbers are associated with him. Even when they’re high, he seems to find a way to exceed them. He doesn’t have an easy Over/Under (283.5 passing yards at -114 for both), but it is manageable. Allen has topped 300 yards three times in his last four games, is coming off his bye week, and meets a hapless Miami team that has been swirling down the drain all season. Too many positives here. Take the Over.
The Minnesota Vikings have their biggest game of the season Sunday night against Dallas, and both teams are capable of pressing the ball down the field. Wide receiver Adam Thielen has an Over/Under (65.5 receiving yards at -114 for both) almost 20 yards less than teammate Justin Jefferson. Dallas’ suspect pass defense has allowed seven receivers to top 90 yards, including two games with more than one. If a receiver is going to get doubled, it will be Jefferson. You leave Thielen single-covered at your own peril. Take the Over.
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