NFL Player Prop Bet Payday: Week 10

NFL Player Prop Bet Payday: Week 10

NFL Betting Odds and Lines

NFL Player Prop Bet Payday: Week 10

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This week we go receiver-heavy on our picks with a Hall of Fame quarterback and running back thrown in to help take you to the pay window. A week after one of the most defense-dominated weeks in years, expect to see the offenses flex its muscle and put up some impressive totals.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Friday, Nov. 12 at 7:35 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook

Lump of Cole

Last season, Stefon Diggs was shattering franchise and personal records in Buffalo, and Cole Beasley, while posting big numbers, was clearly the No. 2 guy in the Buffalo pass offense. However, this season, they’re in a near-dead heat for targets, receptions and yards. Beasley has an Over/Under for receptions that comes with a price (4.5 receptions at -145 Over, +112 Under) I typically shy away from. However, in his last three games, Beasley has been targeted 33 times and caught 25 passes. In three games as a member of the Bills, he has caught 20 passes. The combination of those two makes me swallow hard and go for it. Take the Over (-145).

Can I Buy a Vowel?

The Detroit Lions have yet to win a game this season, due in large part to an awful pass defense that has allowed seven receivers 97 or more aerial yards. Worse yet, is it always seems to be the players you would expect to have a big game. This week Detroit gets the Pittsburgh Steelers. Diontae Johnson is far and away the most targeted receiver in Pittsburgh with the most receiving yards, which is why his Over/Under (72.5 receiving yards at -115 Over, -112 Under) is so attractive. Over his last six games, he has averaged more than 82 yards a game – and that’s against teams that have won games. Take the Over (-115).

Ground Control to Major Tom

It’s always dicey when you say Tom Brady can’t do something. He has consistently been given a lofty passing Over/Under and this week is no exception against Washington (298.5 passing yards and -115 Over, -112 Under). The thing about Brady is that he has had four games over that number and four games under with all four of the latter coming against lesser teams that he doesn’t need to throw 40 times to keep up with. Washington is pretty brutal, but its defense has been showing some improvement. Either way, 300-yard games aren’t easy. While I hate saying the G.O.A.T. can’t do something, the score will likely dictate eating the clock in the second half with the run game. That scenario will keep his numbers down somewhat rather than if he had his foot on the gas. And none of that includes the injury woes among his targets. Take the Under (-112).

In Like a Lion, Out Like a Lamb

The Dallas Cowboys are coming off one of their most humbling defeats in a long time and are looking for revenge against a questionable Atlanta Falcons pass defense. CeeDee Lamb has become the big-play threat in the Cowboys pass offense but has a manageable Over/Under (71.5 receiving yards at -112 Over, -115 Under). These two teams played last year, and Lamb caught six passes for 106 yards. In eight games this season, Lamb has at least one catch of more than 30 yards in six of them. If that trend holds, it greatly reduces what he needs to hit the point. I think he could go off for 100 again this time around. Take the Over (-112).

What’s Cookin’?

The Los Angeles Chargers have the worst run defense in the NFL and it’s not even close. The Chargers are allowing 162 yards a game on the ground, or 25 yards more per game than any other team in the league. This week, they face one of the best and most explosive running backs in the league in Minnesota’s Dalvin Cook. He has an Over/Under that is high but achievable (91.5 rushing yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). Minnesota is missing five of its defensive starters this week, so if the Vikings want any chance to win, they may have to control the clock for 35 minutes or more. The best way to do that is to give the ball to Cook 20-25 times and use play-action passes to keep the Chargers on their heels. Unless they fall behind by 17, expect to see a steady dose of Cook. Take the Over (-114).

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