As the NFL begins its stretch run, there are several key games that will likely have an impact on who makes the playoffs and who doesn’t or where a team destined for the playoffs will be ranked.
Ironically, none of the high-stakes games feature division opponents, including Indianapolis at Buffalo, Cincinnati at Las Vegas, Dallas at Kansas City and Pittsburgh at the Los Angeles Chargers.
We’ve picked through the betting options and have come up with what we think will give you the best chance to head to pay window in Week 11.
NFL Betting Odds and Lines: Week 11
New England Patriots (-290) at Atlanta Falcons (+225)
The Patriots defense gets the job done consistently, and New England’s offense is methodical and looks to put together long drives. The Over/Under on this one seems a little high (47.5 points at -105 Over, -115 Under). Bill Belichick defenses tend to take away the most dangerous threat an opponent has, so that will likely be Kyle Pitts. After that, what weaponry do the Falcons have without Calvin Ridley, especially if Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle) is inactive? Take the Under (-115).
Houston Texans (+380) at Tennessee Titans (-540)
There are a few teams I never want anything to do with that requires them doing something to help you win a bet. Without Derrick Henry, the point spread is a little stiff (9.5 points at Texans +100, Titans -120), but it’s the only one that simply requires Houston to suck – which the Texans can handle. Take the Under (-120).
Indianapolis Colts (+265) at Buffalo (-350)
I’ve been cooling off on the Bills because they’re too erratic from one week to the next. However, one thing I am confident in is that Indianapolis beats the teams they’re supposed to beat and loses to the teams against which they’re supposed to lose. Buffalo is a bigger favorite than I prefer (7.5 points at Colts -117, Bills -103), but you follow the history and every team better than Indy beats them – and sometimes by a lot, which is Buffalo’s specialty. Take the Bills and lay the 7.5 points (-103).
Washington Football Team (+140) at Carolina Panthers (-175)
Despite coming off a win against the Buccaneers, I have no faith in Washington’s ability to string wins together. Carolina’s run defense is no joke, so making WFT one-dimensional will lead to bad the things. The Panthers are a solid favorite (3.5 points at Washington -120, Panthers +100). Those odds tell you there is a WFT sentiment out there. I’m not feeling it. Take the Panthers and lay the 3.5 points (+100).
Baltimore Ravens (-240) at Chicago Bears (+190)
The Bears are still trying to feel their way through life with a rookie quarterback, while the Ravens are a step ahead in their division and, while not hitting on all cylinders, they are talented enough on both sides of the ball to cover the spread (5.5 points at Ravens -108, Bears -112). Chicago’s defense is better than its record indicate, but take the Ravens and lay the 5.5 points (-112).
New Orleans Saints (+110) at Philadelphia Eagles (-135)
The Eagles have a defense that takes chances and that comes with good and bad. The numbers they have given up to elite quarterbacks are mind-blowingly bad. Their last three wins have come against pedestrian QBs. Trevor Siemian is the poster boy for pedestrian quarterbacks. The Eagles are a soft home favorite (2.5 points at Saints -105, Eagles -115). The Saints defense will give them a chance to win, but the offense likely won’t do its part to seal the deal. Take the Eagles and lay the 2.5 points (-115).
San Francisco 49ers (-280) at Jacksonville Jaguars (+220)
Is this the classic short-week, early-game window that will negate a dominant win over the Rams last Monday night? The 49ers are a representative favorite (6.5 points at 49ers -108, Jaguars -112), but I’m no fan of the Jaguars and don’t think they can hang with the Niners for 60 minutes. Take the 49ers and lay the 6.5 points (-112).
Miami Dolphins (-180) and New York Jets (+145)
I’m down on both these teams, but the Jets defense is allowing 44 points a game over the month. The Over/Under for this one is almost identical (44.5 points at Over -112, Under -108). I don’t think the Dolphins can score 44, but I think they can score enough and have a defense ratty enough to give the Jets offense the points needed. Take the Over (-112).
Detroit Lions (+470) at Cleveland Browns (-700)
Detroit is winless and Cleveland is coming off a humbling loss to the Patriots. The spread for Cleveland is a little daunting (10.5 points at Lions -105, Browns -115). If you look at the schedule for this season, the Browns lose to teams with winning records and beat teams with losing records. Detroit is the ultimate loser of 2021 going on the road for the third time in four weeks. Take the Browns and lay the 10.5 points (-115).
Green Bay Packers (-130) at Minnesota Vikings (+105)
Over the last two weeks, all of the top contenders in the NFC have been beaten in upsets, except the Packers. I think Minnesota has a very good chance of winning this game, but I’m much more comfortable betting on the Over/Under (48.5 points at Over -115, Under -105). Aaron Rodgers will get his, and Minnesota has a lot of offensive weapons at its disposal. Take the Over (-115).
Cincinnati Bengals (-112) at Las Vegas Raiders (-108)
The Raiders are a half-point favorite, but for some reason the Bengals get less return on investment. If you’re a regular reader, you know my theory on a half-point favorite where the point spread is the same as the money line. If you’re taking the underdog, why not get the half-point at the same price in the event there is a tie. We had one last week. Why not this week, too? Take the Bengals at .5 points (-112).
Arizona Cardinals (-130) at Seattle Seahawks (+105)
It’s a cold day in Washington when the Seahawks are home dogs. Seattle is on the ropes and are going to pull out all the stops to drop the Cardinals down a peg. I don’t think they have enough to beat Arizona, but I do like the manageable Over/Under (47.5 points at Over -115,Under -105). There are too many weapons. While predicated on Kyler Murray being back, take the Over (-115).
Dallas Cowboys (+120) at Kansas City Chiefs (-145)
The Over/Under has reached the point of avoidance (56.5 points), but this is likely going to be a game that comes down to the final possession. Even though they’ve won three straight, I’m not nearly as bullish on the Chiefs as I’ve been during the Patrick Mahomes era. Dallas could steal one. Take the Cowboys on the money line (+120).
Pittsburgh Steelers (+200) at Los Angeles Chargers (-250)
The Steelers are always a threat, especially in prime time, but the Pittsburgh offense can’t exchange punches with what the Chargers can bring. I think the Chargers are going to win, but I don’t believe the Steelers should be as big a dog as they are (5.5 points at Steelers -105, Chargers -115). Call it a hunch, but take the Steelers plus 5.5 points (-105).
New York Giants (+400) at Tampa Bay (-550)
The Bucs have lost two straight and can’t have a third in a row. They’re big favorites over the G-Men (10.5 points at Giants -112, Buccaneers -108). Let’s see if I have this straight and correct me if I’m wrong. Tom Brady is in danger of losing a third straight for the first time since 2002 – his first full season as a starter. And, if I’m not mistaken, Tampa Bay has won its last three home games by 23, 28 and 35 points. I’d boost that number up to 17. Take the Buccaneers and lay the points (-108).
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