As the playoff push begins, our focus this week is on players from teams that are in the fight to keep their playoff hopes alive or cement their playoff positioning. These five we feel give you a good chance of heading to the pay window early and often.
Hands off Jimmy! Don’t Touch Jimmy!
The passing yardage Over/Under for San Francisco 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo seems deceivingly low (245.5 yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). However, the Niners are who they are – a run-first team that asks Jimmy G to manage the game. In the eight games he has played, he has thrown 30 or fewer times in six of them. He simply doesn’t get the opportunity that often the sling the ball around the yard. The 49ers should be able to handle the Jacksonville Jaguars and, if they get a big lead, will take the air out of the ball. Take the Under (-114).
Don’t Know You from Adam
In his last five full games against the Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Adam Thielen has 75 or more receiving yards in four them and 110 or more in three of those. His Over/Under for receiving yards is quite low (58.5 yards at -118 Over, -110 Under). The Packers are known for playing man coverage but are likely going to roll a safety on Justin Jefferson, which will leave Thielen one-on-one downfield. A couple of splash plays will make reaching that number a lot easier and the opportunities will be there. Take the Over (-118).
Baby You Can Drive My Carr
Las Vegas Raiders QB Derek Carr has quietly been posting some eye-popping passing yardage numbers, which helps explain why his Over/Under this week against Cincinnati is so high (282.5 yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). This is a combo platter bet in my view. The Raiders are run-first offense, and if that keeps working, the Raiders will run 30 times or more. The Cincinnati Bengals defense has struggled the last couple of games and need to make a statement to regain steam. The only way I see this one going Over is if Cincinnati gets a double-digit lead early and the Raiders have to throw 40 times or more. Take the Under (-114).
Hail to the Chief
The problem teams have scouting out Kansas City is which weapon do they double – Travis Kelce or Tyreek Hill? They can’t double both. It’s rare this season when both Kelce and Hill blow up, but one of them does each game. The Dallas Cowboys love to blitz their linebackers and that lends itself to quick passes to the vacated spot to Kelce. His Over/Under for receptions is high (6.5 at +100 Over, -130 Under). The clear indication here is that the thought will be that Kelce can hit seven receptions. I’m not saying he’s going to hit 100 yards, but this game could be a 34-31 haymaker exchange and Patrick Mahomes may throw 40-50 times. He if does, at least a dozen of those will come Kelce’s way, and I like his chances of catching seven or more of those. Take the Over (+100).
What Can Brown Do for You?
Tennessee Titans WR A.J. Brown has owned the Houston Texans. In four games, he has caught 27 passes and topped 110 yards in three of them – all with Derrick Henry hogging up most of the snaps in the ground game. Houston is awful and doesn’t have overly physical corners. Brown’s Over/Under for receptions is manageable (5.5 at -112 Over, -115 Under). The key to this one is target share. Brown has been targeted nine or more times in four of the last five games. He is adept at crossing routes that take advantage of his size, and, without Henry, the Titans offense is going to lean more on Brown to control the game flow. Take the Over (-112).
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