This week we’re looking to take you to the pay window by placing bets on four of the biggest stars in the game this season and taking a side prop bet on the game’s best kicker, throwing in a curveball that will likely have a winner or loser decided in the first quarter.
Buccaneers QB Tom Brady has been posting huge numbers, which have made his Over/Under totals go off the chain. Against the Colts this week, his O/U for passing yards is gigantic (315.5 passing yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). Brady routinely hit more than 300 yards while with the New England Patriots, but he has hit this number just once in his last five games. So many things can happen to keep his yardage number under, ranging from getting a big lead and laying on the ball, the Indianapolis Colts defense stepping up or Colts RB Jonathan Taylor rushing 20-25 times to reduce the time the Bucs offense is on the field. Any one of those things will make topping the point difficult. Take the Under (-114).
After a 1-3 start, the Pittsburgh Steelers saved their season by turning the offense over to rookie RB Najee Harris. Over the next five games, Harris never had less than 22 carries. The Steelers went 4-0-1 in those games. In the five games he has 16 or fewer carries, Pittsburgh is 1-4. There has been no middle ground. In a must-win game against the Cincinnati Bengals, the Over/Under for Harris is modest (66.5 yards rushing yards at -114 for both). If he hits the 20-carry standard he has posted in five of the last six games, it will be almost impossible for him not to surpass that number. Take the Over (-114).
Movin’ On Up
Against likely playoff teams over the last two weeks, Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson has posted more than 300 receiving yards, which is why his Over/Under against the San Francisco 49ers (84.5 receiving yards at -114 for both the Over and Under) seems a little low. He has become a big-play machine, and Jefferson is thrown a ton of deep balls that he turns into 80/20 balls instead of 50/50. It’s a big number but one that might require an injury to prevent him from hitting. Take the Over (-114).
The Adams Family
It’s difficult to ever go against Green Bay Packers wide receiver Davante Adams under any circumstances, much less when he is at home. However, while they haven’t done it as often this season as they have in previous years, the Los Angeles Rams may have CB Jalen Ramsey chase Adams wherever he goes on the field. The talent level at receiver drops significantly beyond Adams, so this could be a one-on-one matchup of two All-Pros that lasts all 60 minutes. His Over/Under is pretty high (90.5 receiving yards at -114 for both). But, Aaron Rodgers is no idiot. If Ramsey puts the clamps down on Adams, Rodgers will still take his shots, but likely not as many as he would against a lesser corner. Take the Under (-114).
Just for Kicks
There are plenty of prop bets that can be made on any game. We tend to focus on yardage, but there are also bets for who will or won’t score a touchdown, who will score first, etc. One that caught my eye is in the Baltimore-Cleveland game – who will score the first field goal at -112 for both teams. Here is where I see the game within the game. The Cleveland Browns have scored 17 or fewer points in five of their last six games, which means a lot of possessions coming up empty. The Baltimore Ravens have the best kicker in the NFL in Justin Tucker, and he is capable of hitting kicks from 60 yards. The odds are quietly stacked in his favor, because if he gets his chance, he rarely misses. Take the Ravens to kick the first field goal (-112).
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