Top-ranked daily fantasy sports pro Jason Mezrahi, founder and CEO of WinDailySports.com, breaks down his favorite DFS plays at various salary ranges for Week 13 of the NFL season. We are back for another year of DFS domination and we have some new tools to take advantage of from my team over at WinDailySports.com.
Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterback is flooded with great options, and I will have my exposure spread across Brady, Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, Carson Wentz, Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, and Derek Carr. These running quarterbacks provide a nice floor, but old man Brady has been super consistent this year, minus last week when everyone was on him and Leonard Fournette scored four touchdowns. In a Week 2 matchup versus the Atlanta Falcons, Brady threw for 276 yards and five touchdowns, capping off a 30-point DraftKings performance. If Atlanta can hang in this game for four quarters again, we could see a repeat performance, which would be great for Brady owners. I believe Brady is still gunning for MVP contention, and this would be the week to pad those stats against a weak Atlanta defense. Like I stated above, I will not be going all in on any particular quarterback this week, and I will have close to even shares of all the guys mentioned above.
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
With not much of a consistent run game in LA, Herbert almost always finds himself putting up 20-plus DraftKings points. Herbert has averaged 25 points per game and should be in a shootout against Burrow in this matchup of two high-scoring offenses. This defense in Cincinnati is stingy but has also faltered at times. I think Herbert has the skill set and players around him to take advantage of it. Vegas agreed, setting the total at 50.0 and the Chargers projected to score 23.5 points. With the Chargers defense on shaky ground on the road, I expect Herbert to play from behind in this one, which should lead to more passing and possibly some garbage time. As long as he limits his turnovers, he will exceed value on Sunday and provide a safe floor for both cash games and tournaments.
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
Similar to the quarterback position there are some great options at the running back slot. With that being said, it’s pretty obvious who is sitting at the top of our projection model. Taylor has been a beast all season and, since Week 3, has blown the doors off. He has eight straight weeks of 20-plus-point performances, three of which were 30-plus and one was 50-plus. Taylor is the best in the game and draws a matchup against the second-worst rush defense that is allowing 135 rushing yards per game. He is expensive on both sites, so you will have to pay up, and there is reason to fade. If you can find a way to afford him, lock him up, if not take shots on Joe Mixon, Austin Ekeler, Alexander Mattison, Leonard Fournette, Jamaal Williams, Darrell Henderson, or Josh Jacobs.
Jamaal Williams, Detroit Lions
We need some value on this slate with all the good matchups on the board. With D’Andre Swift looking doubtful, while I am writing this article Williams is in line to carry the workload for the Detroit Lions. The price is right, and the matchup is great for Williams. The Vikings rank 22nd against opposing running backs and are currently allowing the 30th-most rushing yards per game. Once Swift exited in the firstst quarter, Williams barely shared any of the touches with the remaining backs on the Lions, so we can expect Williams to take as many snaps as he can handle on Sunday. Please check back to make sure Swift is inactive. If he is on Sunday, lock up Williams as one of the best value plays on the board.
Keenan Allen, San Francisco 49ers
After a couple of weeks of Mike Williams, old faithful Allen took back the WR1 spot in LA. Allen has five straight weeks of 10-plus targets, and that is the kind of consistency we want from our receivers. He is priced under the top tier and a $7,500 price tag is affordable for the safety he provides. As I stated above we should see a high-scoring game against the Cincinnati Bengals with a total of 50.5, and I expect a heavy dose of Allen if the Chargers want to win this game. The Bengals are giving up the 25th-most passing yards on the season, which should present Allen with the opportunity to deliver his fifth 100-yard receiving performance of the season in Week 13.
Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders
The last man standing in Las Vegas is Renfrow. With Henry Ruggs released and Darren Waller likely out, we should see 10-plus targets for Renfrow on Sunday. Combine that with the fact he’s facing Washington, and we have a perfect scenario at this price tag. Washington ranks 30th against wide receivers and is giving up the 30th-most passing yards per game. If Renfrow can somehow find his way into the end zone, this week I can see a path of 25-plus points from a midrange salary, which will help us climb up the leaderboards. The sportsbooks have Vegas favored in this game and have them projected to score 25.5 points, which has me looking to roster a lot of Renfrow on DraftKings, where you get a full point per reception. Renfrow is safe play for cash games that still provides the upside we need for tournaments. With Deebo Samuel doubtful, look for value in Brandon Aiyuk and possibly Jauan Jennings once confirmed.
Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Is Gronk now the No. 1 passing option in this offense? Since he came back from injury, and with Antonio Brown still on the shelf, Gronk has averaged nine targets per game and has looked great on the field and in our fantasy lineups. With AB now suspended, I am locking Gronk in a high percentage of my lineups. If Brown is in I will still have some shares but will definitely lower my ownership. The matchup is juicy versus the Falcons, a team giving up yardage in bunches, and Atlanta got torched by Tampa in Week 2. Gronk had an effective game in Week 2 scoring two touchdowns while snagging four receptions for 39 yards. We also need to keep an eye out on Deebo Samuel as mentioned above. If he’s confirmed out, I will slide more shares of George Kittle in my lineup as well.
Jack Doyle, Indianapolis Colts
Doyle has been creeping up the target chain for the past three weeks in this Colts offense. Doyle has been targeted 17 times in that time and capped it off with a six reception 81-yard performance, when he also scored a touchdown, in Week 12. The good news is his price hasn’t increased by much, and he draws a more favorable matchup this week as well. Houston currently ranks 28th against opposing tight ends and allows the 31st-most points per game. We want exposure to this offense, and we know how expensive Taylor is. The cheapest way to get exposure to the Colts is through Doyle. It worked in Week 12, so let’s go back to the well.
Good luck in Week 13, and if you ever have any questions, please hit me up on Twitter!
Jason Mezrahi has been a professional, top-ranked Daily Fantasy Player on FanDuel and DraftKings for more than eight years. He has won FanDuel’s $155,555 King of the Diamond competition and placed second in DraftKings’ Fantasy Basketball World Championship, earning him $300,000. He owns and operates WinDailySports.com, which supports the DFS and Sports Betting community with resources such as tools, projection models, expert chat, in-depth written analysis and podcasts, plus much more.