Six points with David Dorey

Six points with David Dorey

Fantasy football player analysis tips and advice

Six points with David Dorey

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We’re on the back-end of the season and racing towards the fantasy playoffs.  It’s that part of the season where several teams in every fantasy league are already realistically out of it and have little to look forward to other than next year. But – there are always things to learn that can be applied to the future.

Here’s a few things I’m thinking about heading into Week 13 and about the season overall.

1.)  Big passing and receiving games are down  – Here’s a quick look at how many “big games” were produced per position for the last three years. This counts how often each position had a game with the following fantasy points – quarterbacks (30 pts.), running backs (25 pts.), wide receivers (25 pts.), and tight ends (20 pts.). This only considered the initial 12 weeks of each season.

Running backs were unchanged from last year, and with the number of elite backs that have missed time in 2021, it’s a little surprising that it isn’t down. But all elements of the passing game are lower for “big games”. Over the first 12 weeks of the season, 2020 was a banner year for quarterbacks and wideouts, and while the wide receivers haven’t dropped back to 2019 levels yet, quarterbacks have experienced a 26% drop from their high last year.

2.) RB Kene Nwangwu (MIN) – Dalvin Cook has a torn labrum and is out a week or two, depending on who you ask. And Alexander Mattison will take over for him as he did in Week 3 and 5 when he turned in major fantasy points versus the Seahawks and Lions (nice timing).  But ever happened to Nwangwu? You know, the Vikes 4.14 draft pick from Iowa State that was taken before Rhamondre Stevenson, Chuba Hubbard, and Elijah Mitchell. He was the sixth  running back selected.

The rookie only has two carries this year but returned two kickoffs for touchdowns. He’s 6-1 and 210 pounds and ran a 4.29 40-time at Iowa State’s Pro Day. He was never a true starter in college but was a special teams star there as well.  The Vikes passed on several other backs to take him.  He’s expected to see at least some relief work while Cook is out.

3.) WR Jaylen Waddle (MIA) – The rookie already has 77 receptions on the year, more than any other rookie wideout. DeVonta Smith is next with 48. Waddle’s 77 catches gained just 759 yards for a low 9.9 yard-per catch. He runs a 4.39 40-time, so his short catches are more reflective of the play calling and passing skills of Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins want to involve him in deeper routes and he’ll be a beast of a wideout if he bumps up that average catch.

At Alabama, he had a career average of 18.9 yards as a deep threat. He’s on pace to catch 109 passes which would eclipse the record 101 receptions by Anquan Boldin in 2003. There’s another feature of a 17-game season – breaking rookie records.

4. ) WR Odell Beckham (LAR) – Interested to see where this Los Angeles Ram thing goes. Admittedly, I am never high on an elite wideout that goes cold for  five seasons after a severe knee injury in 2017. He had a couple of 1,000-yard efforts for the Giants (2018) and Browns (2019) but just barely. Last season  was another injury-shortened year. So when he went to the Rams, it was notable in that he was a starter, but expectations have not been high in recent years.

His first game at the 49ers was only two catches for 18 yards. But in Green Bay last week, he was thrown the same ten targets as Cooper Kupp and ended with five catches for 81 yards, including a 54-yard touchdown. Just one good game and really – just one good catch and run. But he is back in an offense that prefers to throw. What if…

5.) RB Adrian Peterson (SEA) – Signed to the practice squad of the Seahawks and will likely get called up soon. Peterson was dropped by the Titans after three games totaled 27 rushes for 82 yards. This is a “win now” move for a 3-8 team. It’s hard to put the finger on what is exactly wrong with the Seahawks all season, and it is more than Russell Wilson’s finger since they struggled prior to his injury.

This offense has the same stars as previous seasons other than Chris Carson but sports an offense no better than No. 28 in any fantasy position. Gerald Everett is the only player exceeding expectations.  There’s too much talent on this team for this to be happening and I want to see what they are like for the rest of the season because this looks like a team on the verge of a lot of 2022 change.

6.) QB Kyler Murray (ARI) –  At 9-2, the Cardinals  have the best record in the NFL and are coming off a bye. Murray has missed the last month with a high ankle sprain while DeAndre Hopkins also missed a similar amount of time with a hamstring injury.  It is impressive they could be 9-2 without the duo but their return changes the offense. Chase Edmonds is expected to return next week, so the band is getting back together.

This weekend gets the offense back together which alone is interesting to see if they immediately pick up where they left out in Week 8. But  the forecast is for 38-degree weather and a chance of rain with winds up to 16 MPH – not exactly ideal weather to get back on track but probably well suited to James Conner.

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