This week, we’re playing the matchups more than the players themselves for our five weekly prop bets. It worked well for us last week (4-1), and we’re looking to bank some more holiday cash to make this the best Christmas ever. These five look like they can do the trick.
Cleveland Browns RB Nick Chubb is an elite running back, but has an extremely low Over/Under (68.5 rushing yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). The last game Cleveland played was against the Ravens (with their bye week in between). It didn’t go well. The Browns had to abandon the run, and Chubb had his worst game of the season. However, the Baltimore Ravens are banged up coming off their bloodbath with Pittsburgh, and the Browns need to get back to doing what they do offensively – pound the ball with Chubb. He has surpassed this number in seven of nine games, and I like those odds. Take the Over (-114).
Where There’s a Wilson, There’s a Way (Part 1)
New York Jets QB Zach Wilson is being given one of the lower Over/Under numbers for quarterbacks this week (230.5 passing yards at -114 for both), but he’s being given it for a reason. That’s a high-water mark for him. In seven games, he has started since Week 2, he has topped this number just once. The only reason the New Orleans Saints remain in the playoff chase is because of their defense. Wilson isn’t suddenly going to turn into a passing machine against this defense. Take the Under (-114).
Where There’s a Wilson, There’s a Way (Part 2)
It’s one thing to give Zach Wilson a peewee passing yardage number to hit. It’s another altogether to give Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson a paltry Over/Under (239.5 passing yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). There is some logic to the number as he has surpassed that total in just one of four games since returning from finger surgery. But, that came against Green Bay, Arizona, Washington and San Francisco – all current playoff teams. This week, he is up against the woeful Houston Texans and their accommodating pass defense. While I don’t think Russ will cook to the tune of 300 yards, he should top 250, because Seattle needs to keep its foot on the gas, and their running game has struggled. Take the Over (-114).
Hey Jeud, Don’t Let Me Down
The Denver Broncos history this season has been to either win big or lose big, which explains why they’re a double-digit favorite over Detroit. Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy has an Over/Under that seems too low (52.5 receiving yards at -114 for both) going up against a pathetic Lions’ pass defense. Jeudy is coming off his best game of the season last week, because the Broncos brought the deep ball back to the offense. Realistically, one reception will cut this number in half and, if he catches just a couple more, he rolls past it. Take the Over (-114).
What the Helaire?
Kansas City Chiefs RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire is in his third game back from injury, and his Over/Under isn’t extreme (61.5 rushing yards at -112 Over,-115 Under). But, there are three problems with that. In the three games in the CEH era in Kansas City, when the Chiefs play the Las Vegas Raiders, they throw. A lot. Like 46 times a game a lot. It’s how they win. In two games against Vegas, Edwards-Helaire has rushed just 12 times a game. In his two games back this season, he has rushed just 13 times a game. To hit that number, he’ll need to average five yards a carry. Patrick Mahomes owns this matchup. Barring a 25-yard run in the mix, this isn’t as low a point as it seems given the limited opportunities expected. Take the Under (-115).
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