Typically making picks for the weekend games, you have a ton of options. But, as was the case last year, COVID has reared its ugly head – forcing three games to moved into next week and leaving several other games with question marks.
As a result, the number of prop numbers out early are few and far between, so we’re making the picks that we have numbers for instead of having the luxury to pick or choose between a much bigger pool of players.
The Hunter of the Hunted?
New England Patriots TE Hunter Henry was paid huge money to be the next Gronk, but that hasn’t happened. He has started adding touchdowns to his resume, which helps a lot, but his Over/Under is very low (25.5 receiving yards at -114 for both Over and Under). The Patriots are opening up the offense a little more for Mac Jones, and his completion percentage is very strong. Henry has the size to create mismatches and may only need three receptions to top this number. Take the Over (-114).
Hangin’ with Mr. Cooper
Dallas Cowboys WR Amari Cooper hasn’t been setting the world on fire this season, but his Over/Under has dropped to a point that it has become hard to ignore (50.5 receiving yards at -114 for both). Cooper has topped this number in six of the last eight games he played and, while he caught just three passes in the meeting with the Giants, he hit the 60-yard mark. Dallas’ run game has had its struggled, and the pass game has had to pick up the slack. Cooper is a big-play threat and with the emergence of other receivers, he isn’t getting the double-coverage that typified his first couple season in Dallas. He could top that number with one bomb from Dak Prescott. Take the Over (-114).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers TE Rob Gronkowski is still rolling along after coming out of retirement last season. His Over/Under is low given his production this season (52.5 receiving yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). He has hit over that number in each of his last four games, but the New Orleans Saints defense is extremely good against tight ends and likely won’t allow Gronk to rumble down the seam without a linebacker in his hip pocket. The Saints are going to try to play ball control and the Buccaneers are leaning more on Leonard Fournette as the season rolls along. Gronk could well hit this number, but it might take five or six catches to do that and that seems a little too high. Take the Under (-114).
Me and Julio Down by the Schoolyard
Tennessee Titans WR Julio Jones at this stage of his career is more of a No. 2 receiving option. He showed that in Atlanta has last couple of seasons and earlier this year before A.J. Brown went down. Now he is the No. 1 guy, which gets No. 1 coverage. The Pittsburgh Steelers’ pass defense has the ability to blanket the opponent’s top receiving threat. That is reflected in Jones’ Over/Under this week (54.5 receiving yards at -114 for both). Pittsburgh is going to pay a lot of attention to Jones, and he isn’t the player who is going to catch six or more passes, which is what it might take to go over the number. Take the Under (-114).
It Ain’t Easy Being Green
It’s never a secret coming into any Green Bay Packers game that WR Davante Adams is going to be the focus of Aaron Rodgers’ plan of attack. His Over/Under is impressive (90.5 receiving yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). But, Adams has topped 100 yards in each of the last three games, and the depleted Baltimore Ravens secondary still plays more man coverage than just about any defense in the league. During the Packers’ run for the No. 1 seed over the last three weeks, Adams has averaged more than eight catches a game. If he comes anywhere close to that, it may be impossible to keep him under 90 yards. Take the Over (-114).
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