There is a flood of players to track every summer, so it is easy to get stuck in the weeds of the information overload. There are hyped players that have BREAKING NEWS about them being in the best shape of his career. Guys coming off a bad year, others from an oddly good season. And all the while there are new players on new teams with new coaches. It’s really head-spinning to all keep up with and sort out.
Sometimes, it’s nice to take a big step back and look at the overall picture, from year to year. I’ve produced fantasy football content for 25 years and I can tell you, pretty much the same thing happens every year, just not to the same players.
Below are the rankings of all quarterbacks that lodged a Top-10 performance in the last five years. Quarterback is typically the most stable position, and even more so for the elite players. And yet, look at this:
2020 was a banner year, with six of the Top-10 from 2019 returning as difference makers. But only Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes were Top-10 for each of the last three years. DeShaun Watson likely would have been another with four straight but even Russell Wilson showed that a good thing doesn’t last forever.
Notable is that most fantasy leagues only start one quarterback, so the Top-5 are the difference makers. Only Josh Allen produced a Top-5 finish (and No. 1, no less) for the last two seasons. There is a reason why he’s being taken as the first quarterback in your league. He’s been a huge fantasy advantage for two years with a similar outlook for 2022.
The Big-3 for this season remains Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, and Patrick Mahomes. They have the highest ceilings and the least risk. Tom Brady comes off a monster year as well, but everyone keeps waiting for his age to rob him of health and ability. And waiting. And waiting…