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2021 record: 11-6

Notable coaching and system changes

Brian Daboll is now the head coach for the New York Giants, and Buffalo has promoted quarterbacks coach Ken Dorsey to offensive coordinator. This is Dorsey’s first opportunity as an OC, but he was an important part of Josh Allen’s development and as the saying goes, “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it.” Still, don’t be surprised if the team runs the ball a little more than in prior seasons with Dorsey calling the plays. Dorsey’s prior role will be filled by former Carolina OC Joe Brady.

Key free-agent additions

• WR Jamison Crowder (New York Jets)
• TE O.J. Howard (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Key free-agent departures

• WR Cole Beasley (free agent)
• WR Emmanuel Sanders (free agent)
• RB Matt Breida (New York Giants)

Key draft additions

• RB James Cook (2nd round)
• WR Khalil Shakir (5th round)

Quarterback preview

Josh Allen returns as the starting quarterback. While he has a new play-caller, little in the offensive philosophy will change, and Allen should be drafted as one of the top two QBs in every format. Case Keenum takes over as his clipboard holder by replacing Mitchell Trubisky, but he can be ignored.

Running back preview

Georgia rookie James Cook joins an already murky backfield. Devin Singletary has done everything necessary over his career so far to prove that he should be a primary starter in the NFL. How is he rewarded? He is constantly pushed into running back-by-committee situations. Cook will always be unfairly compared to his brother, Dalvin Cook. View him as a step above a traditional gadget-back. He never really saw a chance to be the featured back in college, and he won’t need (or allowed) to be here, either.

The Bills also signed free-agent running back Duke Johnson after watching J.D. McKissic dis them on the open market. Johnson is a veteran pass-catching specialist who will only further frustrate the other backs’ owners. You can ignore him unless there are multiple injuries. Oh, yeah, the team still has Zack Moss under contract as well. We could see him get cut before the season even begins.

Unfortunately, none of these backs will have season-long value beyond RB3. It will be an inconsistent ride from week to week, but Singletary has more worth than Cook, and the rookie is far closer to being seldom-used depth material than weekly contributor. Plus, they both will be ignored in the red zone anyways, where Allen and tight end Dawson Knox rule the roost.

Wide receiver preview

Stefon Diggs‘ set a career-high in TD receptions last season. He also took a sizable dip in receptions and yardage stats despite playing in more games than he had ever before. It didn’t matter as Buffalo rewarded him with a huge contract extension last month. Diggs remains a top-five receiver in all formats.

Gabriel Davis will see another bump in production this season after a rocky start to 2021 that was made easier to forget by his strong finish. He already established himself as a WR3/No. 4 last season, which certainly wasn’t harmed by a four-touchdown playoff appearance vs. Kansas City. Including two postseason games last year, Davis scored nine times over the final seven contests. This year, he could easily reach lower-end WR2 territory.

Both Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley were allowed to walk to free agency, so the team will be looking to replace 184 combined targets there from last season. Some of those targets may go to fifth-round rookie Khalil Shakir. He can play both in the slot and outside. Shakir also can carry the ball out of the backfield. In this high-octane offense, he can make an immediate fantasy impact even as their No. 4 receiver.

The wild card here is Jamison Crowder. He was a slot machine in New York and could step right into the Beasley role. That would be a huge boost to the veteran receiver’s value, which is limited to that of a middling No. 3 in PPR. Crowder also comes with a lengthy injury history.

Isaiah McKenzie and Marquez Stevenson provide depth. McKenzie always seems to have one or two big games when someone is hurt. Keep him on your FAAB speed-dial list, but don’t draft him outside of best-ball.

Tight end preview

As if the Bills didn’t have enough weapons, they added oft-injured tight end O.J. Howard to backup Dawson Knox. With so many WRs to feed, we don’t see Howard establishing much value unless Knox were to sustain an injury. That said, if Knox were to go down, Howard would instantly be a top-12 tight end. Knox, a fringe, touchdown-dependent TE1, doesn’t dominate in receptions or yardage, but he is a red-zone vacuum. Howard can emulate that role if need be.

Sleeper/breakout candidates

Crowder can easily step in and replicate Beasley’s success from the slot. He has forever been undervalued because he had to suffer from lousy quarterback play in New York and Washington. Now, he has an All-Pro throwing him the ball and could emerge as a weekly WR3 in PPR.

Bust potential/overvalued players

Cook is not his brother, and there are just too many cooks in this kitchen. He definitely will be overdrafted based on rookie hype and name value.

Davis will certainly continue to bloom this season, but his ADP has the potential to get out of hand as the summer wears on. He currently goes near the end of Round 8, which is fine if it remains in the middle of the draft.

Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

2021 record: 9-8

Notable coaching and system changes

Brian Flores was replaced as head coach by Mike McDaniel — a Kyle Shanahan apprentice, so expect a lot of running back “Shanahanigans” and a healthy dose of tight end targets. He added a pair of veteran former OCs in Frank Smith and Darrell Bevell as his new offensive coordinator and passing game coordinator respectively.

Still, McDaniel is expected to be the play-caller here, despite only one season himself as an NFL coordinator. Perhaps we will see one of his WRs be deployed in the Deebo Samuel dual-threat role.

Key free-agent additions

• WR Tyreek Hill (acquired from Kansas City Chiefs)
• RB Raheem Mostert (San Francisco 49ers)
• RB Chase Edmonds (Arizona Cardinals)
• WR Cedrick Wilson (Dallas Cowboys)
• QB Teddy Bridgewater (Denver Broncos)

Key free-agent departures

• WR DeVante Parker (traded to New England Patriots)
• QB Jacoby Brissett (Cleveland Browns)

Key draft additions

• WR Erik Ezukanma (4th round)

Quarterback preview

Tua Tagovailoa has no more excuses this season. This team has outfitted him with every weapon possible. If he falters early, don’t be surprised if the team keeps his leash short and turns to veteran game manager Teddy Bridgewater.

From a fantasy perspective, Tua has an upgraded backfield, his tight end returns, and one of the most explosive receivers in the game is now on his side. There’s a lot to like about the situation, yet Tagovailoa’s limited upside has seriously capped his fantasy appeal to that of a midrange backup. That’s not to say he couldn’t exceed expectations to play as a low-end QB1 during the year, but we’re not exactly optimistic. His best worth will be in best-ball formats, since gamers will benefit from Miami’s playmaking receivers doing the dirty work after the catch but not have to suffer through all of the soul-crushing performances.

Running back preview

McDaniel knows what he has in Raheem Mostert — a home run hitter who is just as likely to tear something as he is score each time the ball comes his way. But system fit goes a long way. McDaniel also has a strong familiarity with free-agent signee Chase Edmonds due to the shared division.

Edmonds figures to be used as a change-of-pacer with an emphasis on passing downs, similarly to how he was deployed while in Arizona. Myles Gaskin has shown more grit than many would have expected, but he very well could be the odd man out and profiles too closely to Edmonds.

To further complicate things, the Dolphins signed free-agent rusher Sony Michel on May 9. The veteran played admirably last year while Cam Akers was out for the Los Angeles Rams.

There will be a battle for the early-down role between Michel, Gaskin and Mostert. Even if the former 49er wins, he’s still a 30-year-old running back made of peanut brittle. Gaskin isn’t quite draftable just yet but may earn himself that distinction with a strong summer. Michel makes some sense, but he’s limited to two downs.

It simply boils down to this backfield is largely avoidable in fantasy for anything more than the occasional spot play. Edmonds has the most utility and is still little more than a flex most weeks.

Wide receiver preview

Jaylen Waddle established himself as a PPR superstar last season. With Tyreek Hill stretching the field, defenses will have no chance of stopping nor containing Waddle. As long as Tua doesn’t meltdown, these two will both have lower-end WR1 value this season.

Cedrick Wilson would’ve been a breakout candidate here, but then the team traded for Hill. All three will be on the field together at times, but just don’t expect Wilson to replicate last season’s numbers (which were inflated due to Dallas’ injuries).

The team also got richer in the draft landing Texas Tech’s Erik Ezukanma. Ezukanma slipped in the draft, allowing Miami to steal him in the fourth round. On most other teams, he could have a chance to make an impact as a rookie. We just don’t see the target volume here.

The team also has veteran depth in Preston Williams and Lynn Bowden Jr. The fantasy world would love to see Bowden get the chance to take on the “Deebo Samuel wide-back role,” but we don’t see it happening. If you want to take a deep flier, throw a final-round pick at him.

Tight end preview

Mike Gesicki watched his TDs (two) drop off last season, but his receptions (73) and yardage (780) both improved. Even with the new weapons, Gesicki could enjoy a strong season if he is gifted the George Kittle role on this offense. Let us hope he is less fragile than Kittle has been in recent years.

That said, it’s tough to see a true breakthrough with all of the mouths to feed, unless Tagovailoa’s unwillingness to push the ball down the field hamstrings this offense’s potential.

Sleeper/breakout candidates

Tagovailoa has been gifted a king’s ransom worth of weapons. He also will likely have a shorter leash but appears ready to make that jump into QB1 territory.

Bust potential/overvalued players

Hill isn’t going to be a bust, but he doesn’t have Patrick Mahomes anymore, so his value clearly goes down. We’d rather have Waddle with lesser draft equity expended.

Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

2021 record: 10-7

Notable coaching and system changes

Josh McDaniels is once again a head coach, moving to Las Vegas. Meanwhile, Bill Belichick appears to be the offensive play-caller for the Patriots after failing to hire anyone in official capacity, so Matt Patricia will assist him. It’s a mysterious situation, as most things Belichickian, but we don’t anticipate major system changes from the McDaniels offense.

Key free-agent additions

• WR DeVante Parker (acquired from Miami Dolphins)
• RB/WR Ty Montgomery (New Orleans Saints)

Key free-agent departures

• RB Brandon Bolden (Las Vegas Raiders)

Key draft additions

• WR Tyquan Thornton (Round 2)
• RB Pierre Strong Jr. (Round 4)
• RB Kevin Harris (Round 6)

Quarterback preview

The job belongs to Mac Jones. He looked serviceable last season despite mediocre weapons. This year, he adds an injury-prone WR1 in DeVante Parker, but at least he finally has something close to a No. 1. Jones finished last season as QB18 on the 14th-most attempts, and he’ll remain in the fantasy backup category entering Year 2.

The team drafted Western Kentucky signal-caller, Bailey Zappe in Round 4 — way before he should have gone. This was one of many head-scratchers by Bill Belichick on draft day. Perhaps his dog was drafting for him again.

Running back preview

The draft absurdity continued at the running back position where New England added both Pierre Strong Jr. and Kevin Harris. Strong would’ve had value on many other teams. Here, he joins a convoluted mess anchored by Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson. Either Harris or Stevenson would be a top-12 RB if the other wasn’t there. They now have even more competition. Plus, this is Belichick. He could add an undrafted rookie free agent and just randomly start him one of the weeks for no apparent reason.

Adding to this confusion, the team also signed free-agent hybrid RB/WR Ty Montgomery, and Belichick-favorite veteran pass-catcher James White will return from his hip injury at some point this summer.

Our recommendation is just to ignore this situation completely unless you are a fan of schadenfreude. Mild kidding aside, this backfield generated three of the top 46 performances last year, and Harris finished RB11. He’s the only one with weekly utility, at least until we know for sure White is 100 percent recovered, and Stevenson should be the primary handcuff to the former Alabama bruiser.

Wide receiver preview

DeVante Parker instantly becomes the best receiver in this offense. Jones showed enough last year with zip and pip to suggest that Parker could flourish here. Parker has one strong season to his credit and is constantly battling an injury of some sorts. He’s a No. 3 in fantasy with upside for more, but there’s just too much liability to draft him earlier than the middle rounds.

Jakobi Meyers finally scored last season (twice even). He had a minor breakout with no one else to threaten him for targets most weeks. The volume will not be there this season, but he could produce WR4 value in PPR scoring.

Kendrick Bourne also had a minor breakout last season. The team will use all three simultaneously this year, and he could be a bye-week replacement off the wire.

The team also added Baylor wide receiver Tyquan Thornton in the second Round. Thornton is an excellent track star and also a true football player. Now, one could argue the pick was a reach, but his game-breaking speed fills a need.

The team also has veteran Nelson Agholor and failed first-round selection N’Keal Harry on the roster. Agholor may be shown the door if Thornton delivers in the offseason. Harry shouldn’t be on your roster, and he probably shouldn’t be on an NFL roster, either. Both veterans are prime cut candidates and have no value in fantasy drafts.

Tight end preview

The Patriots opened up the vault to add both Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith last offseason. Henry paid dividends immediately by recording a career-high in TDs while keeping his auxiliary stats on par with his career numbers. Smith, on the other hand, did next to nothing to earn his contract. We expect slightly less output this season from both with the new WR weapons, and only Henry is draftable of the two.

Sleeper/breakout candidates

Parker is always underdrafted despite always being his team’s WR1. Nab him as your third or, ideally, fourth, and start him nearly any week he is healthy.

Bust potential/overvalued players

Any of the RBs. This offense will run the ball, but they will ride the hot hand. Plus, if your back fumbles on the first drive of the game. He will miss the rest of it by the coach’s decision.

Thornton will likely outproduce N’Keal Harry’s rookie year numbers. Of course, Harry’s rookie numbers only slightly outproduced you and me. There are just too many weapons here to trust a one-trick pony of a rookie receiver.

Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

2021 record: 4-13

Notable coaching and system changes

No notable coaching or system changes to the primary areas of concern, but it is worth noting Zach Wilson’s personal quarterbacks coach, John Beck, wasn’t retained after signing on as an offensive assistant in Week 8 last year. New York’s official QBs coach, Rob Calabrese, returns.

Key free-agent additions

• TE Tyler Conklin (Minnesota Vikings)
• TE C.J. Uzomah (Cincinnati Bengals)

Key free-agent departures

• WR Jamison Crowder (Buffalo Bills)

Key draft additions

• WR Garrett Wilson (Round 1)
• RB Breece Hall (Round 2)
• TE Jeremy Ruckert (Round 3)

Quarterback preview

Zach Wilson was okay last year by rookie standards. This is New York, though, and “okay” won’t cut it. The Jets were the massive winners of the 2022 draft, completely overhauling both sides of the ball with highly rated picks.

Wilson will inevitably be on the radar for the most improved player in the league in just his second season. That doesn’t necessarily mean he’s a lock for serious progress, though. In 2022 drafts, he’s a high-risk, high-reward QB2 in most formats.

Running back preview

The team established Michael Carter Jr. last season as a solid running back with some versatility to his game. Last month, New York traded up and drafted Breece Hall in Round 2. He was already slated to be the rookie draft 1:01 in every format. Now, not only does he have the draft equity, but he also has a decent landing spot.

Make no mistake about this, Hall is the alpha here. That said, Carter becomes a must-have handcuff and should be in the mix as a change-of-pace, particularly on clear passing downs. Hall is a fine receiver in his own right, so there could be a frustrating degree of interchangeability at times. Hall is an RB2 target, whereas Carter’s ceiling is that of an occasional flex in PPR.

Ty Johnson and Tevin Coleman remain as depth, but neither has any value.

Wide receiver preview

Elijah Moore had a great rookie season. His performance allowed the Jets to let Jamison Crowder walk this offseason. Moore has one season in his pocket working with Wilson at quarterback, but just know that Garrett Wilson has a real shot to become the WR1 here before the season is over. Both Moore and Wilson will be in the low-end WR2 fantasy territory some weeks, but neither should be banked on as a set-and-forget lineup option just yet. Wilson will be the safer play in TD-heavy formats, and Moore will be safer in PPR.

Veteran Corey Davis also will line up as an outside starter. His numbers will be hit harder by Wilson’s presence than that of Moore, who will likely play more out of the slot. Davis has arguably more downside than upward potential, and he’s no stranger to bumps and bruises. The veteran is a weak flex or much safer depth addition to rosters.

Braxton Berrios has had a few moments late last year. Third-year receiver Denzel Mims has yet to show much of anything. Neither will see enough work this season (barring an injury) to have any draftable value.

Tight end preview

New York went from the outhouse to the penthouse — relatively speaking — at this position during the offseason. Not only did the Jets sign two borderline TE1 receiving threats in C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Conklin, they also drafted Ohio State’s Jeremy Ruckert in Round 3.

As a threesome, they will likely cannibalize each other’s numbers. It’s unclear just how the team will utilize the two veterans. Conklin was a backup and valued blocker prior to being thrust into a pass-catching role last year, an area in which he didn’t disappoint. Uzomah emerged unscathed from a 2020 torn Achilles to post career numbers a season ago, benefiting statistically from all of Cincinnati’s aerial outlets. In New York, aside from mostly checkdown work, it’s tough to envision either being more than a weekly matchup consideration.

Ruckert is the wild card. He has a LOT of Dawson Knox in his game. This could spell a windfall of TDs for the rookie. Just know that most TEs do not break out during their rookie season. If you play in a TE-premium dynasty format, his long-term outlook is quite appealing.

Sleeper/breakout candidates

Garrett Wilson will feast in single coverage as a rookie. Don’t be surprised when his numbers outpace Moore’s by year-end. As with any rookie receiver, there’s a balancing act of risk and reward to measure, but he’s a viable No. 3 in most formats.

Zach Wilson has the weapons (and the physical tools) to take that next step in the QB growth chart. Will it be into the realm of reliable fantasy starters? Unlikely, but he definitely has a shot at filling in when needed.

Bust potential/overvalued players

Uzomah is a fantastic blocking TE that developed as an emotional leader and solid receiver last season for Cincinnati. Now, he figures to be asked to block more and run fewer routes. Last season was his career apex, it is likely all downhill from there.

Davis will be a starter on offense for this team but his output will be highly diminished by all of their other weapons. He’s in a pivotal year for his career trajectory, and we’re just not convinced he has it in him to overcome all of the drawbacks.