Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

2021 record: 4-13

Notable coaching and system changes

Lovie Smith takes over as head coach and has decided to keep and promote his former cohort from the Chicago Bears, Pep Hamilton, to offensive coordinator. Hamilton, who was also hired by former coach David Culley, loves to run the ball and frequently utilizes tight ends. He also recently helped develop young quarterbacks, such as Justin Herbert, Baker Mayfield, and Andrew Luck. Smith has always been more of a defensive specialist, so expect Hamilton to be running this offense.

Key free-agent additions

• RB Marlon Mack (Indianapolis Colts)

Key free-agent departures

• QB Deshaun Watson (traded to Cleveland Browns)
• RB David Johnson (free agent)
• QB Tyrod Taylor (New York Giants)

Key draft additions

• WR John Metchie III (Round 2)
• RB Dameon Pierce (Round 4)
• TE Teagan Quitoriano (Round 5)

Quarterback preview

Davis Mills was better than serviceable last year, but the team brought in veteran stopgap option Kyle Allen in case Mills suffers a sophomore slump. Hamilton’s coaching acumen with young quarterbacks can only help Mills with his development.

Still, Mills will need more time to operate in the pocket, not to mention the addition of something resembling an NFL-grade rushing attack to continue to grow. He’s a weak QB2 in deep leagues and has a bit more utility in superflex. Take a No. 3 gamble on him in best-ball.

Running back preview

This situation was abysmal last year, but the addition of Marlon Mack at least presents a slight glimmer of hope. Mack joins Rex Burkhead as the two primary veteran ball carriers for this offense. Mack lost his starting job in Indianapolis due to an injury. Still, he is fully recovered and should get the first crack at every-down duty, although his durability has been an issue. More of a home run type on the ground but a limited receiver, Mack could find himself phased out.

The team added Florida RB Dameon Pierce in the fourth round. He looked solid at the Senior Bowl and has limited mileage on his tires. Presuming he picks things up quickly, Pierce should get every opportunity to win this job outright in camp. That said, as of today, it is Mack’s job to lose. Plus, will there even be enough carries to provide Pierce serious value? That said, look to add him as a potential RB4 sleeper, and he has more upside in standard-scoring formats as well as dynasty leagues.

Burkhead could steal a few touchdown opportunities, and he’s by far the best third-down option on this team for not only his hands but blocking skills. There’s a clear path to a scenario in which he mans this role while Pierce and/or Mack dominate the early-down work. Avoid Burkhead on draft day.

Newly signed Dare Ogunbowale also is a passing-down specialist. If he can notch out a role for himself outside of special teams, he could have minor value in PPR best-ball formats. Royce Freeman was also re-signed but has no value here.

Wide receiver preview

All Brandin Cooks does is record 1,000-yard receiving seasons, regardless of who is throwing him the football. Despite playing for four different organizations in his eight-year career, Cooks has only two seasons in which he has not topped 1,000 receiving yards. Mills gravitated toward the vet, and Cooks is a sound WR2 in most scoring settings.

Nico Collins returns for his sophomore season and should continue his development after having a full season playing with Mills. The big issue with Collins is that he caught only 33 of 60 targets last year. He will lose ground fast if he doesn’t catch more of the balls thrown his way. A weapon in the red zone, Collins is a boom-or-bust flier in the final few rounds of drafts. Expect low volume but the potential for leading Houston in aerial scores.

Houston drafted Alabama wide receiver John Metchie III in Round 2. Metchie was one of the second tier of receivers off the board, and this is a great spot for him. He is coming off of an ACL injury but should be ready in time for Week 1, if not even training camp. We see him winning the slot job outright if he can prove fully healthy. Once starting, it may not take much for him to surpass Collins on the target chart. PPR gamers should give Metchie a WR5 look in deeper contests.

The receiver room is filled out with several low-end veterans, including Phillip Dorsett and Chris Moore. They also brought back Chris Conley, who always has one great week leading to a free agent acquisition budget (FAAB) frenzy, only to disappear faster than a plate of hot dogs in front of Joey Chestnut.

One player to watch is free-agent signee DaeSean Hamilton. He never had a real shot in Denver and missed last season due to injury. Still, he has managed to record 51 first downs over 81 career catches. Perhaps he could have a little Hunter Renfrow in him.

Tight end preview

Houston re-signed free-agent tight end Pharaoh Brown. This does nothing other than slow the development of Brevin Jordan. Fortunately, Jordan has enough talent to make this signing a moot point, and Brown is a far better blocker. Jordan could approach matchup usage as his comfort level grows.

Houston drafted Teagan Quitoriano in Round 5. If you draft him, you should be the one quitting.

Sleeper/breakout candidates

If the Texans were smart, they would allow Pierce the chance to win the starting running back job in camp. Considering his competition, we can see him overtaking this backfield at some point this year.

Despite not being active until Week 8 of last season, Jordan nearly outproduced Brown’s season-long numbers. Pep Hamilton always had a successful tight end as part of his offensive scheme, so the opportunity will be there. Jordan could shine if Collins and Metchie fail to step up.

As mentioned above, Hamilton could leapfrog Collins, especially on third-down conversion attempts, but there’s nothing to get overly excited about here.

Bust potential/overvalued players

The game script could force any of their backs to underperform, but Burkhead is the most likely to fall off completely if Mack can prove fully healthy or Pierce can win the job outright.

Collins had a poor catch rate last season. If he cannot improve on that, he may find himself fourth on the target chart.

Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

2021 record: 9-8

Notable coaching and system changes

Frank Reich made several changes to his defensive coaching staff, but his offensive staff remained mostly the same. Tyler Boyles steps in as the assistant to the head coach, and both he and Brian Bratton will serve as offensive quality control coaches. Parks Frazier is the new passing game coordinator. Even with these changes, the most notable addition is former Pro Bowler Reggie Wayne as wide receivers coach. All in all, the system won’t change to any noticeable degree.

Key free-agent additions

• QB Matt Ryan (acquired from Atlanta Falcons)

Key free-agent departures

• QB Carson Wentz (traded to Washington Commanders)
• RB Marlon Mack (Houston Texans)
• TE Jack Doyle (retirement)
• WR T.Y. Hilton (free Agent)
• WR Zach Pascal (Philadelphia Eagles)

Key draft additions

• WR Alec Pierce (Round 2)
• TE Jelani Woods (Round 3)

Quarterback preview

Matt Ryan was the victim of a severely lacking receivers room last season in Atlanta. He will have at least one proven receiver to target this year. Of course, he will also be without the Kyle Pitts security blanket. Even with some departures, this is the best offensive line that Ryan has had in nearly a decade.

If his arm doesn’t take an age-related, Ben Roethlisbergian fall off this year, he could be primed for his best season since 2018. Ryan is a top-flight backup who can be used in a pinch with the right matchup.

Running back preview

It took a couple of games before Reich decided to stop fooling around with intentional double-digit touches for Nyheim Hines. He still has value as a handcuff, but his days of being a standalone option are long past. That is what happens when you have an All-World running back, such as Jonathan Taylor, who should be the first player drafted in all conventional formats.

Ryan has used his backs in a pass-catching manner previously, so Taylor should continue to be a multi-faceted back. Another season with more than 2,000 total yards is in play.

Undrafted rookie Deon Jackson is the only other back on the roster. Keep an eye on his development as his profile is much more appropriate to fill in for Taylor on early downs — if given the chance.

Wide receiver preview

Michael Pittman Jr. took a huge leap forward in his second season. Unfortunately, he will now have his third different quarterback in as many seasons. Fortunately for him, this signal-caller may be the most talented one with whom he has ever played. Pittman is a strong WR2 in most formats with greater weekly stability in point-per-reception scoring.

Second-round receiver Alec Pierce landed in a rock-star spot. This team was woefully lacking in receiver depth. He can challenge less athletic defenders as a deep threat, but he also is built like a tank and can overpower many defensive backs and even some linebackers. The biggest knock on Pierce is that he runs some sloppy routes, so he will have to improve his to gain Ryan’s trust. There’s late-round sleeper value at play here.

The team should have Parris Campbell back this year. He has a load of natural talent. He also has had more injuries in his brief career than Evel Knievel. Ryan has supported two receivers previously, albeit in different systems, so whoever starts opposite Pittman may have some value. Campbell will have to fend off Pierce.

The room is filled out with Ashton Dulin, who showed out a little last year, and former Texan Keke Coutee. Like both of them as end-of-the-roster dart throws in best-ball with Ryan at the helm.

Tight end preview

Jack Doyle retired, leaving the occasional red-zone threat Mo Alie-Cox as the lead tight end. He actually out-targeted and outscored Doyle last year. With Doyle’s 43 targets leaving, and questions surrounding the third passing-game option, he could see a breakout this year. Alie-Cox is a matchup-play gamble in deep settings.

Alie-Cox also could end up playing second-fiddle once again to Round 3 selection Jelani Woods. Woods is a freak who measures in at 6-foot-7 and runs a 4.6-second 40 … try covering that in the red zone. Indy loves to run two-TE sets, which means we should see plenty of both players. Woods profiles as the better “Y” tight end as a line extension, whereas Alie-Cox is the modern “move” TE. Rookie tight ends rarely matter in fantasy, and Woods’ likeliest contributions will come in the red zone.

We could also see second-year tight end Kylen Granson, who looked competent last year, take a step forward this year. That said, I’m not drafting him here as I feel he finishes as option three in this room.

Sleeper/breakout candidates

As mentioned, Alie-Cox is an intriguing option to watch. He’ll get an upgrade at quarterback, has little proven talent behind him to steal looks, and the Colts still need someone to step up behind Pittman. There’s plenty to like about the 2021 PPR TE26’s odds of taking a serious step forward.

The Colts felt highly enough about Dulin to attach an RFA tender to him, which he signed, this offseason. If T.Y. Hilton doesn’t end up back with the Colts, Dulin could be a very sneaky breakout here, especially if Campbell continues to miss time with injuries. Dulin isn’t draftable in anything but best-ball for the time being.

Bust potential/overvalued players

As the clear first overall draft pick in most formats, Taylor has the largest potential drop-off if he were to suffer an injury. That is the only real threat to his value value, though.

Credit: Matt Pendleton-USA TODAY Sports

2021 record: 3-14

Notable coaching and system changes

Can you say complete overhaul? The Urban Meyer fiasco lasted just slightly less time than a Pauly Shore rom-com at the multiplexes. Doug Pederson brings his Super Bowl-winning resume and West Coast offense to Jacksonville. Ultimately, the development of Trevor Lawrence will define his tenure here.

Pederson brought in Press Taylor as his offensive coordinator. They have experience together from their time in Philly. The offensive staff also added former NFL head coach Mike McCoy and former NFL OC Jim Bob Cooter. That is a very strong collection of educators to teach Lawrence.

Key free-agent additions

• WR Christian Kirk (Arizona Cardinals)
• WR Zay Jones (Las Vegas Raiders)
• TE Evan Engram (New York Giants)

Key free-agent departures

• WR DJ Chark Jr. (Detroit Lions)

Key draft additions

• RB Snoop Conner (Round 5)

Quarterback preview

It is weird to think that this already may be a make-or-break season for Trevor Lawrence. The team severely overpaid to bring in some new weapons for him and brought in an entire faculty of QB-development coaches to build him up.

With more weapons, less chaos, and a year of experience, Lawrence could threaten QB1 status by the season’s conclusion, but it should be an inconsistent ride along the way. He’s safely treated as a midtier No. 2 for now.

Running back preview

The Jaguars invested an early pick in 2021 on Travis Etienne. He promptly suffered a season-ending injury, forcing the team to revert to 2020 breakout star James Robinson.

Etienne was a more hyped prospect coming out, and all signs point to him being ready for all offseason activities. Still, Robinson has proven that he can get it done at this level. Unfortunately for Robinson, he suffered an Achilles injury late last season, so he won’t be ready until training camp at the earliest. Pederson always seemed to use multiple backs in Philly, so expect both to have weekly value. The problem is they will diminish each other’s numbers, making both no better than a low-end RB2. Etienne is the one to own.

The team did add a running back (their only offensive skill position draft pick) in Round 5 in Snoop Conner. Frankly, we’d rather roster Snoop Dogg. Still, with both Etienne and Robinson having suffered significant injuries within the last calendar year, Conner should be on the handcuff radar.

Wide receiver preview

Imagine spending nearly $100 million to sign Zay Jones and Christian Kirk instead of just keeping DJ Chark Jr. for $10 million. The Kirk contract was so bad for the NFL that it has hoisted the league’s receiver contract structure on its own petard. Yet, this room has some decent talent.

Kirk and Jones will be able to stretch the field with their vertical speed. Kirk should be an immediate, high-end WR3 with upside for more. Depending on how things shake out in the summer, Jones could be in the WR5 flier range (fill-in territory), at best. He can stretch the field, though as more of a glorified possession guy.

In addition to these two, the team returns Marvin Jones Jr. as a starter. Expect him to operate as the primary possession receiver and lead the team in receptions (with a still sub-optimal reception number). Plus, his TDs will remain down with so many mouths to feed. Jones is an uninspiring WR4 target.

The receivers room is filled out by Laviska Shenault Jr., Laquon Treadwell and Jamal Agnew. Look for the team to utilize Shenault in multiple ways, like Deebo Samuel. His volume numbers (63-619-0) could shrink due to the number of offensive additions, although he’s bound to score more frequently, which doesn’t take much compared to last year. In some ways, past coaching regimes haven’t utilized him all that well. Pederson’s creativity will help unlock whatever untapped potential may remain, but Shenault is capped as no more than late-round gamble material right now.

Treadwell played admirably after Agnew went down last year. Due to the money directed toward Zay Jones, there’s little room for these guys to make a difference. Both should just be ignored from a fantasy perspective.

Tight end preview

Dan Arnold was a Twitter darling last year as an expected a breakout. Instead, he was traded to Jacksonville and abruptly suffered a knee injury, ending his season.

Arnold now finds himself behind veteran Evan Engram. Pederson has familiarity with Engram from his NFC East days. He also likes to feature tight ends in his game plan. Engram hasn’t topped three TDs since his rookie season, but he does have at least 44 receptions in every year since being drafted.

Those numbers are not magically increasing with so many other weapons here. With that established, however, there’s a small chance for him to approach his personal-best line of 64-722-6 in the best of scenarios. It would require him to play every game for just the second time in five tries, and Engram’s quarterback will need to exceed all expectations. The oft-injured vet is a risk-reward TE2.

Sleeper/breakout candidates

Lawrence has been given everything necessary to take that next step, sans an elite WR1. We’ve seen a number of quarterbacks manage relevant numbers throwing to a group of mediocre dudes before. We could see a major leap if Lawrence truly is the generational talent as most scouts believed before his rookie disaster of a season. Fortunately, his fantasy value in redraft is tainted by last year’s numbers. Buy the dip.

The big contracts went to Kirk and Zay Jones, but don’t forget about Marvin Jones Jr. as a late value. He will likely still lead the team in receptions.

Bust potential/overvalued players

Robinson’s Achilles injury was suffered late enough in the year to impact his early-season utility. Not every player, especially at running back, comes back as quickly as Cam Akers did last year. In the event Etienne seizes that opportunity, just how much from the third-year back can we expect? Robinson wasn’t an explosive player to begin with and required volume to shine. Now, we’re looking at a significant cut to his touches, so he’ll need to be extremely efficient.

Credit: Andrew Nelles, The Tennessean

2021 record: 12-5

Notable coaching and system changes

No notable offensive coaching changes.

Key free-agent additions

• WR Robert Woods (Los Angeles Rams)
• TE Austin Hooper (Cleveland Browns)

Key free-agent departures

• WR A.J. Brown (traded to Philadelphia Eagles)
• WR Julio Jones (released)
• RB D’Onta Foreman (Carolina Panthers)

Key draft additions

• WR Treylon Burks (Round 1)
• QB Malik Willis (Round 3)
• RB Hassan Haskins (Round 4)
• TE Chigoziem Okonkwo (Round 4)
• WR Kyle Philips (Round 5)

Quarterback preview

Ryan Tannehill lost both of his top wideouts from last season. Plus, he is one year older, and his salary has clearly past his return in value. Despite playing one more game last year, Tannehill finished with fewer passing yards and only two-thirds of the passing TDs than he did in 2020. He also posted the second-most INTs of his career. With the receiver upheaval, Tannehill is only viable as a fill-in and in superflex leagues.

The team nabbed a steal in Malik Willis in the late third round. Willis will get a chance to sit behind the veteran (but he apparently won’t be taught anything) and shouldn’t have much redraft value, unless the team uses him in rushing situations or Tannehill falls to injury.

Running back preview

Derrick Henry continues to be a beast when he is on the field. Even though injuries limited him to just eight games last season, he still finished with over 1,000 total yards and tied for sixth with 10 rushing TDs. With questions circling regarding the passing game, expect the Titans to once again lean on Henry. He was actually well on pace to career highs in receiving prior to his injury, and that number may grow this year. While there’s still much to like about King Henry in fantasy, he’s also on the downside of his prime, and one has to wonder if the broken foot he suffered last year is a sign of things to come following a Herculean workload.

Henry’s fill-in, D’Onta Foreman, has departed, leaving veteran Dontrell Hilliard as a potential handcuff pick. Throughout his career, Hilliard has looked capable of RB3-level production whenever given a lead back’s touches. That said, Hilliard’s roster spot could be in jeopardy if the team feels that rookie Michigan Hassan Haskins — drafted in the fourth round — is ready to be the handcuff. He has been described as an angry runner (not unlike Henry) and is far closer to the mold of being a primary back than Hilliard, whose receiving skills are superior to Haskins’. We’ll monitor the battle in camp. Haskins is the better speculative buy, so long as you acknowledge that operative word.

Wide receiver preview

Not that we received many opportunities to see both A.J. Brown and Julio Jones on the field simultaneously last season, but this season we will not see either of them playing for Tennessee. This leaves first-round pick Treylon Burks as the de facto WR1 here. Draft experts have named A.J. Brown as the primary comparison for young Burks.

While convenient, it’s not entirely inaccurate. Burks also has some Deebo Samuel and Anquan Boldin in his game. At any rate, he’s also a rookie receiver with a tremendous amount of pressure on him. Even when he was mediocre, Tannehill has always been able to support at least one receiver from a fantasy perspective. So, Burks is in the position to be the top rookie WR this year based on volume alone. He’s a risky No. 3 in fantasy with WR2 potential.

Robert Woods arrives from the Los Angeles Rams coming off an ACL injury. This may keep him from being ready to start the season. Even if he is ready, schematically this is a drop-off for the veteran. Still, the lack of other weapons should keep him in low-WR3 territory.

Tennessee also added rookie Kyle Philips in Round 5. Despite the late-round capital, Philips projects as a perfect NFL slot receiver. On this team, he could easily start Day 1 as well. Unfortunately, only nine teams ran fewer plays out of a three-wide base personnel, and Tennessee was allergic to going four-wide in 2021. There’s plenty to like about Philips himself, yet this situation could hinder his immediate impact. He’s a worthwhile WR5 or No. 6 flier in deep settings and best-ball leagues.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine filled in last season when Brown and Jones missed time. He didn’t do much with that opportunity, scoring four times on 57 targets as the highlight. Of his 109.6 PPR points on the year, NWI logged 55.9 percent in just four of 16 contests. He and Dez Fitzpatrick will fight for snap scraps behind the starters but expect more multiple-TE sets this year, leaving them off the fantasy radar.

Tight end preview

Austin Hooper gives the Titans something that was missed after the departure of Jonnu Smith. The former Atlanta and Cleveland starter has always been an above-average receiving threat at tight end, and this year he might see more targets than he ever has. With that comes added scrutiny, too, so his utility is largely tied to how quickly Burks steps up. Hooper is a bona fide TE1 value in PPR.

MyCole Pruitt and Geoff Swaim remain to vulture the occasional TD, but neither should be on your roster. The team also spent a fourth-round pick on Chigoziem Okonkwo out of Maryland. He was a decent pass-catcher in college, but he is woefully small for a tight end at 6-foot-2 1/2, 238 pounds, which limits him to the “move” role as a flexed hybrid. He may get some play in two-TE sets, but he won’t sniff the field on blocking downs, which limits his potential in this run-heavy offense.

Sleeper/breakout candidates

Burks will hardly be a sleeper based on his draft capital, but the volume will be there for him to be the top rookie breakout receiver from this class.

Hooper’s stats were snuffed by the multitude of tight ends and a poor system fit in Cleveland. Now, he can return to the trajectory he began in 2018 with Atlanta. Expect a return to 70-700-6 here.

Bust potential/overvalued players

Woods is one year older, leaving a pass-forward offense to play for a run-forward offense, and he is coming off of knee reconstruction ahead of his age-30 season. Even if he is good to go for Day 1, the comparable volume numbers won’t be there.

Since coming to Tennessee, Tannehill has been a borderline QB1. This is the year he takes the permanent dip into backup territory, especially if Willis steals some of his bonus value as a runner around the end zone.