Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

2021 record: 6-11

Notable coaching and system changes

Although they likely waited a year too long, the Bears finally pulled the plug on the combination of Matt Nagy and Ryan Pace on Jan. 10. The new regime will be stewarded by head coach Matt Eberflus, who spent the last four years as defensive coordinator with the Indianapolis Colts. It’s his first time in the big chair, and he pegged Green Bay Packers quarterbacks coach Luke Getsy to be his offensive coordinator. It’ll be Getsy’s job to build an offense around Justin Fields. Meanwhile, Alan Williams followed Eberflus from Indy to helm the defense.

Key free-agent additions

• QB Trevor Siemian (New Orleans Saints)
• WR Byron Pringle (Kansas City Chiefs)
• WR Equanimeous St. Brown (Green Bay Packers)

Key free-agent departures

• QB Andy Dalton (New Orleans Saints)
• RB Tarik Cohen (unsigned)
• WR Allen Robinson (Los Angeles Rams)
• WR Jakeem Grant (Cleveland Browns)
• TE Jimmy Graham (unsigned)

Key draft additions

• WR Velus Jones Jr. (Round 3)
• RB Trestan Ebner (Round 6)

Quarterback preview

For whatever he’ll become, it’s hard to classify Justin Fields‘ rookie campaign as anything but disappointing. Sure, there were glimpses, most notably in tough losses to the Pittsburgh Steelers and San Francisco 49ers, but there aren’t many ways to spin Fields’ anemic production, not to mention 10 INTs and 12 fumbles (five lost). Perhaps more importantly, he took an absolute beating, and it’ll be critical for Getsy to design something to help his talented, young quarterback along. That may well entail a lot of running the ball, which makes Fields a low-end QB2 with modest upside entering his second season.

Running back preview

Although much is likely to change offensively for the 2022 Bears, David Montgomery figures to remain a focal point after racking up 1,150 total yards and seven scores despite a knee injury that cost him a month.

In his absence, Khalil Herbert showed he could be effective, rushing for 344 yards in his four starts. The Bears chose to marginalize the then-rookie as soon as Montgomery was healthy, but don’t expect Getsy to follow suit. He spent the last three years under Matt LaFleur, who has steadfastly adhered to a two-back system — one that has worked effectively. Assume a similar approach in Getsy’s new home, making Montgomery a midrange RB2 and Herbert a possible RB4/flex type.

Chicago spent a sixth-round pick on Trestan Ebner, an undersized back with receiving skills and excellent speed. He fits a similar mold to Tarik Cohen, who was an integral part of Nagy’s offense before suffering a torn ACL that has kept him sidelined since September 2020. Ebner is worth keeping an eye on.

Wide receiver preview

Even with the NFL’s third-most anemic passing attack, Darnell Mooney still managed to top 1,000 yards in his second season, posting an 81-1,055-4 line that led the club in all three categories and effectively staked his claim to the No. 1 spot in Chicago. Mooney’s growth made it an easy decision to let Allen Robinson join the Los Angeles Rams in free agency this offseason, though with A-Rob gone there isn’t another established wideout on the depth chart. Expect Mooney, who showed by far the most chemistry with Fields, to offer low-end WR2 or strong WR3 value.

In a perfect world, third-round pick Velus Jones Jr. would step in and become the No. 2 target. We’ll see if that happens. Jones was considered a reach by many, and he’s nearly six months older that Mooney, who is entering Year 3. He has some versatility, though, so perhaps Getsy can find ways to get him involved.

If not Jones, free-agent additions Byron Pringle (42-568-5) or Equanimeous St. Brown (9-98-0) could fill that role — remember that ESB played under Getsy in Green Bay. None of the three feel like draft-day targets, but the versatile Jones would be the guy if you’re looking to take a flier.

Tight end preview

One of Pace’s oddest decisions was to bring Jimmy Graham back at a cost of $8 million, ultimately shelling out over $570,000 per reception and taking away opportunities from emerging Cole Kmet (60-612-0). That won’t be the case in 2022, though, with Kmet now paired with veteran journeyman types. The Notre Dame product looks like a player on the rise, but he has work to do in the red zone, posting just two TDs among 88 career receptions. Kmet is a TE2 who may wind up playing like a No. 1 a few weeks.

Sleeper/breakout candidates

In the 13 games that both played, Montgomery logged 267 touches to Herbert’s 30. That won’t continue. Getsy’s time in Green Bay saw Aaron Jones share the load, first with Jamaal Williams and later A.J. Dillon. Expect a much bigger, more consistent role for Herbert in 2022.

Bust potential/overvalued players

At this point, the national narrative is that Fields’ struggles as a rookie fall on some combination of poor blocking, a lack of weapons and the incompetence of Nagy. Perhaps, but who’s to say the first two issues won’t persist? Fields is best viewed as a late-round flier.

Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

2021 record: 3-13-1

Notable coaching and system changes

Detroit opened Dan Campbell’s first year as head coach with a 0-10-1 mark, but they won three of their final six. That might’ve saved Campbell’s job as there were rumblings that it could be one and done for him in Motown. Anthony Lynn wasn’t so lucky, being fired as offensive coordinator and replaced by Ben Johnson, who served as the tight ends coach last year. Campbell called the plays down the stretch, and it’s still to be determined whether he or Johnson will handle the duties this season. Aaron Glenn returns as defensive coordinator.

Key free-agent additions

• WR DJ Chark Jr. (Jacksonville Jaguars)

Key free-agent departures

• None

Key draft additions

• WR Jameson Williams (Round 1)

Quarterback preview

In one of the draft’s more notable developments, the Lions chose to bypass a quarterback, even as several of them tumbled into the middle rounds. Instead, they’ll be content to let Jared Goff lead the team without a developmental prospect behind him. Goff was largely uninspiring during his first season in Detroit, though the shaky collection of talent around him didn’t help. He’ll have more weapons this year, but Goff should still be regarded as a low-end QB2 until he proves otherwise.

Running back preview

When healthy, there’s a lot to like about D’Andre Swift, who has compiled 1,947 yards and 17 touchdowns in two seasons while at times functioning as the offense’s only tangible threat. He’s already missed seven games, though, which is particularly concerning since Detroit has rarely asked Swift to carry a full-time workload — in 26 career games he’s logged more than 15 carries exactly once. While there’s legitimate top-10 fantasy upside with Swift, he’s more of a risky RB2 until he proves he can stay on the field.

Jamaal Williams led the Lions in carries last season — like Swift, Williams appeared in 13 games — and is a great complementary piece. He’s a tough runner, never fumbles, has good hands out of the backfield, and is accomplished in pass pro. Where Williams comes up short is in big plays; only one of his 153 carries went for at least 20 yards and none of his 26 receptions. He could be an RB5 and a smart handcuff for Swift owners.

Wide receiver preview

A year ago, the Lions had perhaps the NFL’s bleakest receiver room. Much has happened since, starting with Amon-Ra St. Brown‘s emergence. He caught 90 balls as a rookie, though he isn’t much of a downfield threat at just 10.1 yards per reception. Therein lies some downside, as Detroit has more options this year, which may mean fewer chances. St. Brown should be drafted as a No. 3 fantasy wideout with risk-reward potential.

One of those options is Jameson Williams (knee), who tore his ACL on Jan. 10. There have been reports that Williams’ goal is to play in the first preseason game, but it’s difficult to fathom he’ll be rushed back for what looks like another rebuilding year. Still, given the recent success of first-round receivers you can’t dismiss him out of hand, either. Feel free to target Williams in the later rounds as a lottery ticket.

Veterans DJ Chark Jr., who is coming off a broken ankle, and Josh Reynolds should also be in the mix. Reynolds gave a lift to the passing game when he was claimed off waivers last November, while Chark had a 1,000-yard season in 2019. Both max out as watch-list candidates for now until more is known about Williams’ availability.

Tight end preview

Two of T.J. Hockenson‘s three NFL campaigns have ended on IR. In 2019, it was an ankle injury. Last season, hand surgery was the culprit. It’s the asterisk to an otherwise encouraging start for Hockenson, who finished second on the team in receiving last year despite missing five games. As noted, there are more viable targets for Goff in 2022, but the Iowa product still carries top-10 fantasy value at the position.

Sleeper/breakout candidates

Whatever fantasy luster Goff’s name had dried up years ago. Granted, he’s more game manager than gunslinger, but the Lions have quietly assembled some enticing talent (albeit with durability concerns aplenty), and with no heir apparent there’s minimal pressure on Goff. He might surprise with competent QB2 production.

Bust potential/overvalued players

There’s a lot to like about St. Brown, but expecting him to exceed his 90-912-5 line feels a bit dubious. Forty-one of those 90 grabs came in five games after Hockenson was lost for the year, and the additions of Williams and Chark should cut into St. Brown’s usage.

Credit: Mike De Sisti, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

2021 record: 13-4

Notable coaching and system changes

Two-thirds of Green Bay’s brain trust returns in 2022: head coach Matt LaFleur is back for his fourth season, and Joe Barry returns for a second year as defensive coordinator. Changes abound elsewhere, though, as Nathaniel Hackett left to become the head coach of the Denver Broncos, and QBs coach Luke Getsy became OC in Chicago. LaFleur chose to elevate offensive line coach Adam Stenavich to offensive coordinator, and he lured Tom Clements out of retirement to fill Getsy’s spot. LaFleur still calls the plays, but this is an offense in flux.

Key free-agent additions

• WR Sammy Watkins (Baltimore Ravens)

Key free-agent departures

• WR Davante Adams (traded to Las Vegas Raiders)
• WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Kansas City Chiefs)
• WR Equanimeous St. Brown (Chicago Bears)

Key draft additions

• WR Christian Watson (Round 2)
• WR Romeo Doubs (Round 4)

Quarterback preview

It was certainly an eventful season for Aaron Rodgers, but it ended in some familiar places, both good (winning a fourth MVP award) and bad (another poor postseason showing). Despite that, Rodgers chose to sign an extension to presumably finish his career in Green Bay, which seemed unlikely before last season. While Rodgers is back, two of his top targets are gone, thrusting the back-to-back MVP into a situation with a lot of unknown commodities. It’d be tempting to predict a down year, but you doubt Rodgers at your own peril. He’s still a viable QB1.

Running back preview

Aaron Jones (1,190 total yards, 10 TDs) and A.J. Dillon (1,116 yards, seven TDs) are as good as it gets in terms of running back tandems in the NFL. To date, Jones has been the headliner. While that might be changing, there’s no doubt that he is the most dangerous big-play threat left in Titletown. Jones has the speed to take it the distance at any point, the power to be effective in short-yardage and goal-line situations, and the hands to shine in the passing game. Despite some durability issues, he rates as a borderline RB1.

Barring injury, Dillon’s time as the featured back (or at least the 1a) is coming. It may not happen until 2023, but the bruising tailback has the talent to handle the role. Although the power is obvious, Dillon also has some shiftiness, and he’s a better receiver out of the backfield than he gets credit for. Dillon is an RB3/flex type for draft day with some moderate upside. If either player misses time, Kylin Hill would be a name to know.

Wide receiver preview

With Davante Adams traded to the Las Vegas Raiders, there’s no clear-cut No. 1 receiver in Green Bay. The most likely player to emerge looks to be Allen Lazard, who had 513 yards receiving and eight TDs last year. His blocking is excellent and should make him a fixture on the field, and more snaps means more opportunities. Lazard could be drafted as a WR4 with some juice.

Randall Cobb and Sammy Watkins are the top veteran options. Watkins has bounced around and is a definite durability risk, but he has talent, speed, and blocking ability, so on paper he’s a nice find to replace MVS. Cobb has logged a million reps with Rodgers over the years and has shown an innate ability on extended plays to make something happen. Cobb deserves a slight edge over Watkins, but both players are final-round types.

On the youth side are rookies Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, and second-year pro Amari Rodgers. Watson is a physical specimen, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see LaFleur create ways to get him the ball as he develops his hands and route running. Again, Watson would be a late-round flier, at best.

Tight end preview

Wide receiver isn’t the only position with a lot of uncertainty with Robert Tonyan (knee) working his way back from a torn ACL; he’s far from a lock to be ready to roll in the first month of the season, much less Week 1. Without him, the Packers will count on improvement from players like Josiah Deguara and Tyler Davis. Of course, given their reported interest in Raiders TE Darren Waller, perhaps adding a veteran is still in the cards. For now, Tonyan could earn a look in deeper leagues as a late-round stash.

Sleeper/breakout candidates

At 32, Cobb is no breakout candidate. He could, however, be a sleeper. Trust and comfort arguably mean more to Rodgers than any NFL quarterback, and Cobb is light years ahead in those areas. Remember that James Jones once returned at age 31 to post a team-best 50-890-8 line.

Bust potential/overvalued players

Stop us if you’ve heard this a time or 50 in the last couple of weeks, but Watson is the highest drafted Packers receiver since Javon Walker circa 2002. That, along with Watson’s physical upside, is almost guaranteed to overinflate the rookie’s value. He’s exclusively flier material.

Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

2021 record: 8-9

Notable coaching and system changes

Much like their NFC North brethren in Chicago, the Vikings probably waited a year too long to usher head coach Mike Zimmer and GM Rick Spielman out the door. Minnesota hired a new head coach (Kevin O’Connell) and offensive coordinator (Wes Phillips) from the Super Bowl Champion Los Angeles Rams, giving the division its second head coach from the Sean McVay tree.

Like LaFleur, O’Connell will call the plays. On defense, O’Connell hired Ed Donatell to be DC after the veteran coach spent the past three years in that role with Denver.

Key free-agent additions

• None

Key free-agent departures

• TE Tyler Conklin (New York Jets)

Key draft additions

• RB Ty Chandler (Round 5)

Quarterback preview

Presented with the opportunity for a full reboot, which would’ve included trading Kirk Cousins and absorbing a ton of dead cap (ala the Atlanta Falcons), the Vikings instead gave the veteran a one-year extension and will roll out the same aging core … only a year older. Entering his age-34 season, Cousins is what he is, a veteran capable of posting big numbers any given week who still frustrates fans (and fantasy owners) with his inconsistency and risk aversion. He’d be a solid choice as a QB2 to pair with a high-upside QB1.

Running back preview

One player that could benefit from a fresh approach offensively is Dalvin Cook, who has tremendous talent but has dealt with an ongoing spate of injuries since being drafted in 2017. His impact on the offense proved to be a double-edged sword as Zimmer and company would ride Cook hard whenever he was healthy, and only plugged capable backup Alexander Mattison into the lineup when Cook broke down. Will O’Connell follow suit? Or will he ease up on Cook’s weekly workload in hopes of getting a full season out of the sixth-year pro? There’s no question Cook has RB1 value, but with a lengthy injury history and a lot of miles on the odometer he brings significant risk, too.

Mattison has proven capable when called upon, but as noted he has rarely been used in a complementary role.

If Cook is up, Mattison is getting a handful of touches. While that could change under the new regime, Mattison only offers RB4/RB5 appeal on his own with sizable handcuff value for Cook owners. Fifth-round pick Ty Chandler could also factor here, though more likely he was drafted with 2023 in mind as Mattison’s contract is up after this year.

Wide receiver preview

All Justin Jefferson (108-1,616-10) has done since being drafted is make plays. After struggling at times to produce versus top teams as a rookie, Jefferson went scorched earth on everyone in his sophomore season with just three games of fewer than 60 yards receiving — one of which came when Cousins was out with COVID. The LSU product works everywhere on the field, and with Adams being separated from Rodgers, Jefferson is now firmly in the conversation for the No. 2 receiver off fantasy draft boards behind the Rams’ Cooper Kupp.

Jefferson’s emergence comes at a good time for Minnesota as Adam Thielen (67-726-10) has been trending in the wrong direction. Yes, he’s still an elite route runner, which helps him deliver in the red zone, but he’ll be 32 in August and has dealt with injuries in recent years — he’s missed 11 combined games over the past three seasons. Drafting him as more than a fringe WR3 seems optimistic at this point.

That leaves K.J. Osborn (50-655-7), who emerged from nowhere last year to be a productive third option. The big question here is whether he can overtake Thielen in targets. For now, Osborn is an attractive late-round flier.

Tight end preview

Tyler Conklin parlayed a solid performance last season into a three-year deal with the New York Jets, which leaves the Vikings with questions at the position.

Plan A would be a return to health for Irv Smith, who missed last season with a knee injury. Smith averaged 33 receptions, 338 yards and 3.5 TDs in two healthy campaigns, and he could be moved into a larger role in 2022. Assuming he’s fully healed, Smith would make a solid TE2 with upside.

Sleeper/breakout candidates

In an offense filled with known commodities, Smith feels like the most likely candidate to make a leap during the upcoming campaign. With Conklin and Kyle Rudolph gone, Smith is the most dangerous tight end option, and he has the chops to exceed Conklin’s 61-593-3 effort from 2021.

Bust potential/overvalued players

Considering his contract, Thielen may be entering his final year in Minnesota. Injuries have taken their toll on the veteran, who is three seasons removed from his last 1,000-yard campaign. Thielen’s work in the red zone has kept him fantasy relevant, but there’s little margin for error.