Week 6 was an eye-opener where being the favorite made those teams endangered species. Seven of the 14 games ended with the underdog winning on the moneyline and nine winning against the spread.
We have a mixed bag of picks to try to get you to the pay window, including a Super Bowl contender at a crossroads, a team whose fan base isn’t convinced they’ll win, a surprising underdog pick, and two games in which the point spreads seem too high – including the second-lowest Over/Under on the board.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
Take San Francisco 49ers on the moneyline (-125) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
At face value, this may seem insane, but teams that have been able to control the time of possession have posed a big problem for the Chiefs. The 49ers are one of the most prominent “matchup” teams in the NFL. If you can’t stop the run, they will keep at it until you do. They’ve given offenses like the Rams and Packers fits because they force their style on them and have the defense to back it up. A few three-and-outs are devastating. Are the Chiefs capable of a blowout win? Certainly. I just don’t see it coming this week in this game.
Take Denver Broncos and lay 1.5 points (-108) vs. New York Jets
The Jets are a great storyline this season, and the Broncos offense has been a joke. All signs would say the Jets should roll, but Denver’s defense is outstanding and thrives against young quarterbacks. The Broncos have lost their last three games but have been within three points in the fourth quarter of every contest this season. Only one team has scored more than 19 points against Denver, and I don’t see the Jets being the second. With their season on the line, the Broncos offense (and Russell Wilson) steps up enough to steal a win.
Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys: Take the Under of 48.5 points (-115)
There are a couple of things wrong with that O/U number. First, it implies that after more than a month on the shelf with a throwing hand injury, Dak Prescott is going to come out slinging. The Cowboys offense has become much more run-heavy and won with it. Prescott will throw more than Cooper Rush, but not a lot – at least not in his first game back. Second, the point suggests the Lions are going to score more than 20 points against the Cowboys defense. I don’t see either of those happening, much less both.
Take Green Bay Packers and lay 4.5 points vs. Washington Commanders
When the Packers looked at the schedule three weeks ago, they saw themselves 5-1 coming into this one, not 3-3. The Packers thrive by feasting on the weak and competing with the elite. The Giants and Jets weren’t as bad as advertised, and the Packers weren’t as good. That said, the defense is going to come after Taylor Heinicke and Aaron Rodgers will go for the throat offensively. If this game isn’t a double-digit win, Packers fans can start panicking.
Chicago Bears vs. New England Patriots: Take the Under of 39.5 points (-103)
The Bears are trying to adopt the Ravens model of offense – don’t turn the ball over and wait for your QB to make a big play with his legs. The Patriots by design look to grind the clock and take advantage of an opponent’s weaknesses. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Patriots won’t be taking chances. Conservatism on both sides makes it hard to take the Over even with this small number.
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