For Week 3, we’re offering up a trail mix of possibilities for the gambler on the move. There is one moneyline bet, two favorites who should put the boots to a lesser team, and a coin clip on the Over/Under – one Over, one Under.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
Take Dallas Cowboys plus 0.5 (105) vs. New York Giants
A bet I’ve never fully understood, the investment made for the Cowboys and Giants is exactly the same on the moneyline as it is giving the Cowboys a half-point. Why would anyone take the moneyline bet if the Cowboys will still head to the pay window if the game finishes in a tie?
This is in no way an endorsement of Cooper Rush. It’s an endorsement of Micah Parsons and the Dallas defense against a Giants offense that is unlikely to score 20 points and just as likely to make the critical mistake to give the Cowboys a short field or a defensive touchdown. It’s difficult to call a 2-0 team fraudulent, but I did the same with the Carolina Panthers last year when they started off 3-0 – and finished 5-12. The Cowboys have the better roster on both sides of the ball and could make a big statement with a second straight underdog win without Dak Prescott.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Denver Broncos: Take the UNDER at 44.5 points (-110)
For years, Russell Wilson has dominated the 49ers. He has won the last four meetings vs. the 49ers and 15 of the last 17 from his days in Seattle. He knows their defensive roster as well as their coaches. While the matchups were more wide open in terms of points scored the last couple of seasons, when Wilson was making runs at the Super Bowl it was a combination of running the ball and controlling the clock that allowed him to win so consistently.
It can be argued that the weapons Wilson has now are superior to what he had with the Seahawks and Denver’s defense is better. Both teams are going to play a physical ground-and-pound style, which lends itself to the type of long drives that make 44.5 points a big number to reach. Look for Wilson to go back to what made him a star early in his career – low-scoring games that he routinely won – both in time of possession and on the scoreboard.
Take Philadelphia Eagles and lay 6.5 points (-108) vs. Washington Commanders
Laying 6.5 points on the road in a divisional game is a bold statement, but the Eagles aren’t taking any prisoners so far this season … Washington and quarterback Carson Wentz are the next in line. A lot is being made about this being a revenge play for Wentz, but nothing would please Eagles players, coaches and fans more than to legally assault Wentz all day and showcase the talents of Jalen Hurts.
In his last two games against Washington, Miles Sanders has rushed for 253 yards and the new-look passing attack gives Philadelphia more balance against a Commanders team that has allowed 58 points to Jacksonville and Detroit. The Eagles have shown they can get off to a fast start. If they make the Commanders one-dimensional on offense, they will be bringing everybody on blitzes to attack Wentz and solidify why they moved on from him.
Take Los Angeles Chargers and lay 6.5 points (-125) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
This a pretty big investment (-125) for a points-spread bet, but it’s because those setting the line know it should be more than seven points, but don’t want to go there. I love this one, because it has a combination of factors. The Jaguars are coming off the defining win of Trevor Lawrence’s young career by shutting out the Indianapolis Colts, which likely dropped the spread a couple of points. However, they’re traveling across the country for this one and have angry, rested Chargers waiting on them to land.
The Chargers blew a second-half, 10-point lead against the Kansas City Chiefs last Thursday in a 27-24 loss and have had 10 days to be salty about the finish to that game. They’ve been preparing for the Jaguars since before Jacksonville played the Colts and saw them at their best. I’m convinced the Chargers will win by double digits and perhaps a few more than 10 points. You may want to look at the boost-point spread.
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins: Take the OVER at 52.5 points (-110)
There are so many scenarios by which this game hits the Over. Buffalo has displayed the ability to put up 40 points already this season. Miami has done the same. Josh Allen is hitting on all cylinders, and the Bills scoring 30 points should be the minimum expectation in this AFC East chest-thumping contest. Tua Tagovailoa is coming off a career game, and, with the addition of Tyreek Hill, the Dolphins have become a big-play, quick-strike offense. Neither team has a running game of note, which only adds to the potential for a lot of passes being thrown.
I don’t believe the Dolphins can blow out the Bills, but I do believe Buffalo has the ability to blow out Miami. Given that the Baltimore Ravens had a 21-point lead in the fourth quarter at home and couldn’t hold it hasn’t been lost on the Bills coaching staff. Having seen Miami’s ability to come back, if Buffalo gets a big lead, it won’t take its foot off the gas. There are very few scenarios that don’t have these two combining for 53 or more points and so many potential outcomes that do.
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