We’re at the half-pole of the season, and this is the beginning of the time when teams start to realize – good or bad – what direction their season is heading.
There are plenty of good matchups, despite six teams being on bye weeks, and we’ve decided to pick one quarterback we think is being pumped out too high and a pair of running backs and receivers who will make their offenses look good.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara OVER 61.5 rushing yards (-115)
The Baltimore Ravens defense has been susceptible on the ground and has allowed featured backs to run over them in recent weeks for strong rushing totals, including Joe Mixon (78 yards), Saquon Barkley (83) and Nick Chubb (91). There may be a concern that Kamara’s yardage will be split between rushing and receiving, but the Ravens can be had on the ground, and Kamara is the centerpiece of the Saints offense.
Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert UNDER 283.5 passing yards (-115)
Herbert is going to be without both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, yet his yardage number remains extremely high. The Chargers love to throw 40 times, but much of the success Herbert has in the passing game is the result of what Allen and Williams are capable of doing. He will likely approach this number against an Atlanta Falcons defense that gets toasted regularly, but it may be asking too much given he is without his top two downfield weapons.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Mike Evans OVER 64.5 receiving yards (-115)
As the Bucs descend to near irrelevance they seem content to abandon the run. The Los Angeles Rams defense hasn’t been as stout as it was last year, allowing seven receivers to pile up 80 or more receiving yards. Teammate Chris Godwin has an identical Over/Under number, and you get the feeling one of them has to hit the Over. Evans is the more reliable target to get five or more receptions. If he hits five catches, this number should be too low.
Minnesota Vikings RB Dalvin Cook OVER 75.5 rushing yards (-115)
Cook has been one of the most consistent fantasy backs in the league. He has rushed for 76 or more yards in all six of Minnesota’s wins, and he’s going up against a Washington Commanders team that has struggled to contain the run with any consistency. If Minnesota is going to win, Cook will have to run for more than 75 yards. It’s been their blueprint to a 6-1 record.
Buffalo Bills WR Stefon Diggs OVER 79.5 receiving yards (-115)
Diggs has topped 100 receiving yards in five of seven games (including each of the last three), and the New York Jets were as burned as anyone by him last year – 17 catches for 243 yards and two touchdowns in two games). Buffalo doesn’t disguise what they’re doing with Diggs, and defenses aren’t constantly doubling him. He and Josh Allen make plays and the Jets will find that out … again.